Lee Cronin: Origin of Life, Aliens, Complexity, and Consciousness #269

Transcript

00:00:00 The following is a conversation with Lee Cronin,

00:00:02 a chemist from University of Glasgow,

00:00:05 who’s one of the most fascinating, brilliant,

00:00:07 out of the box thinking scientists I’ve ever spoken to.

00:00:11 This episode was recorded more than two weeks ago,

00:00:14 so the war in Ukraine is not mentioned.

00:00:17 I have been spending a lot of time each day

00:00:19 talking to people in Ukraine and Russia.

00:00:22 I have family, friends, colleagues,

00:00:23 and loved ones in both countries.

00:00:27 I will try to release a solo episode on this war,

00:00:30 but I’ve been failing to find the words

00:00:31 that make sense of it for myself and others,

00:00:36 so I may not.

00:00:37 I ask for your understanding no matter which path I take.

00:00:41 Most of my time is spent trying to help

00:00:44 as much as I can privately.

00:00:47 I’m talking to people who are suffering,

00:00:49 who are angry, afraid.

00:00:52 When I returned to this conversation with Lee,

00:00:55 I couldn’t help but smile.

00:00:57 He’s a beautiful, brilliant, and hilarious human being.

00:01:01 He’s basically a human manifestation

00:01:03 of the mad scientist Rick Sanchez from Rick and Morty.

00:01:07 I thought about quitting this podcast for a time,

00:01:10 but for now at least, I’ll keep going.

00:01:14 I love people too much.

00:01:16 You, the listener.

00:01:17 I meet folks on the street or when I run.

00:01:21 You say a few kind words about the podcast

00:01:23 and we talk about life, the small things,

00:01:26 and the big things.

00:01:28 All of it gives me hope.

00:01:30 People are just amazing.

00:01:32 You are amazing.

00:01:34 I ask for your support, wisdom, and patience

00:01:37 as I keep going with this silly little podcast,

00:01:41 including through some difficult conversations

00:01:45 and hopefully many fascinating and fun ones too.

00:01:49 This is the Lex Friedman podcast.

00:01:51 To support it, please check out our sponsors

00:01:53 in the description.

00:01:54 And now, dear friends, here’s Lee Cronin.

00:01:59 How do you think life originated on Earth

00:02:02 and what insights does that give us about life?

00:02:06 If we go back to the origin of Earth

00:02:08 and you think about maybe 4.7, 4.6, 4.5 billion years ago,

00:02:13 the planet was quite hot.

00:02:14 There was a limited number of minerals.

00:02:16 There was some carbon, some water, and I think

00:02:20 that maybe it’s a really simple set of chemistry

00:02:22 that we really don’t understand.

00:02:25 So that means you’ve got a finite number of elements

00:02:27 that are going to react very simply with one another

00:02:31 and out of that mess comes a cell.

00:02:33 So literally sand turns into cells

00:02:35 and it seems to happen quick.

00:02:38 So what I think I can say with some degree of,

00:02:41 I think not certainty, but curiosity,

00:02:43 genuine curiosity is that life happened fast.

00:02:47 Yeah, so when we say fast,

00:02:50 this is a pretty surprising fact

00:02:53 and maybe you can actually correct me and elaborate,

00:02:55 but it seems like most, like 70 or 80% of the time

00:02:59 that Earth has been around, there’s been life on it,

00:03:01 like some very significant percentage.

00:03:03 So when you say fast, like the slow part

00:03:06 is from single cell or from bacteria

00:03:09 to something more complicated, organisms.

00:03:11 It seems like most of the time that Earth has been around,

00:03:14 it’s been single cell or like very basic organisms,

00:03:18 like a couple billion years.

00:03:20 But yeah, you’re right.

00:03:21 That’s really, I recently kind of revisited our history

00:03:26 and saw this and I was just looking at the timeline.

00:03:30 Wait a minute, like how did life just spring up so quickly?

00:03:33 Like really quickly.

00:03:35 That makes me think that it really wanted to.

00:03:38 Like put another way, it’s very easy for life to spring.

00:03:42 Yeah, I agree, I think it’s much more inevitable

00:03:45 and I think I try to kind of, not provoke,

00:03:49 but try and push chemists to think about,

00:03:51 because chemists are central to this problem, right?

00:03:54 Of understanding the origin of life on Earth, at least,

00:03:57 because we’re made of chemistry.

00:03:59 But I wonder if the origin of life on a planet,

00:04:02 or sorry, the emergence of life on the planet is as,

00:04:05 common as the formation of a star.

00:04:08 And if you start framing it in that way,

00:04:10 it allows you to then look at the universe

00:04:12 slightly differently, because,

00:04:14 and we can get into this, I think, in quite some detail,

00:04:16 but I think, to come back to your question,

00:04:19 I have little idea of how life got started,

00:04:23 but I know it was simple.

00:04:24 And I know that the process of selection

00:04:27 had to occur before the, by the end of the day,

00:04:31 the selection had to occur before the biology

00:04:35 was established, so that selection built the framework

00:04:39 from which life kind of grew in complexity

00:04:43 and capability and functionality and autonomy.

00:04:46 And I think these are all really important words

00:04:48 that we can unpack over the next while.

00:04:51 Can you say all the words again?

00:04:53 So you said selection, so natural selection,

00:04:57 the original A, B testing.

00:04:59 And so, and then complexity,

00:05:01 and then the degree of autonomy and sophistication,

00:05:05 because I think that people misunderstand what life is.

00:05:10 Some people say that life is a cell,

00:05:12 and some people that say that life is a virus

00:05:15 or life is an on off switch.

00:05:19 I don’t think it’s that,

00:05:21 life is the universe developing a memory.

00:05:25 And the laws of physics and the way,

00:05:27 well, there are no laws of physics.

00:05:28 It’s just memory free stuff, right?

00:05:32 So there’s only a finite number of ways

00:05:34 you can arrange the fundamental particles to do things.

00:05:38 Life is the universe developing a memory.

00:05:43 So it’s like sewing a piece of art slowly,

00:05:49 and then you can look back at it.

00:05:50 So, so there’s a stickiness to life.

00:05:56 It’s like universe doing stuff.

00:05:58 And when you say memory, it’s like there’s a stickiness

00:06:01 to a bunch of the stuff that’s building together.

00:06:04 So like you can, in a stable way,

00:06:07 like trace back the complexity

00:06:10 and that tells a coherent story.

00:06:13 Yeah, and I think, yeah.

00:06:14 Okay, that’s, by the way, very poetic and beautiful.

00:06:19 Life is the universe developing a memory.

00:06:24 Okay, and then there’s autonomy,

00:06:25 you said complexity we’ll talk about,

00:06:27 but it’s a really interesting idea

00:06:30 that selection preceded biology.

00:06:33 Yeah, I think.

00:06:35 So first of all, what is chemistry?

00:06:38 Like does sand still count as chemistry?

00:06:41 Sure, I mean, as a chemist, a card carrying chemist,

00:06:43 if I’m allowed a card, I don’t know.

00:06:45 Don’t know what I am most days, actually.

00:06:46 What is a card made of?

00:06:48 That’s what I’m thinking.

00:06:49 What’s the chemical composition of the card?

00:06:52 So what is chemistry?

00:06:53 Well, chemistry is the thing that happens

00:06:55 when you bring electrons together and you form bonds.

00:06:58 So bonds, well, I say to people

00:07:00 when they talk about life elsewhere,

00:07:02 and I just say, well, there’s bonds, there’s hope,

00:07:04 because bonds allow you to get heterogeneity.

00:07:07 They allow you to record those memories,

00:07:09 or at least on Earth.

00:07:11 You could imagine a Stanislav Lemtri world

00:07:15 where you might have life emerging

00:07:17 or intelligence emerging before life.

00:07:19 That may be something like Solaris or something,

00:07:21 but to get to selection,

00:07:25 if you can form, if atoms can combine and form bonds,

00:07:28 those bonds, those atoms can bond to different elements

00:07:32 and those molecules will have different identities

00:07:35 and interact with each other differently,

00:07:37 and then you can start to have some degree of causation

00:07:39 or interaction and then selection and then existence.

00:07:45 And then you go up the kind of the path of complexity.

00:07:49 And so at least on Earth, as we know it,

00:07:52 there is a sufficient pool of available chemicals

00:07:56 to start searching that combinatorial space of bonds.

00:08:01 So, okay, this is a really interesting question.

00:08:03 Let’s lay it out.

00:08:04 So bonds, almost like cards.

00:08:07 We say there’s bonds, there is life,

00:08:11 there’s intelligence, there’s consciousness.

00:08:14 And what you just made me realize is

00:08:18 that those can emerge, let’s put bonds aside,

00:08:24 those can emerge in any order.

00:08:27 That’s really brilliant.

00:08:28 So intelligence can come before life.

00:08:32 It’s like panpsychists believe that consciousness,

00:08:36 I guess, comes before life and before intelligence.

00:08:41 So consciousness permeates all matter,

00:08:43 it’s some kind of fabric of reality.

00:08:46 Okay, so like within this framework,

00:08:47 you can kind of arrange everything,

00:08:49 but you need to have the bonds

00:08:53 that precedes everything else.

00:08:55 Oh, and the other thing is selection.

00:08:57 So like the mechanism of selection, that could proceed.

00:09:02 See, couldn’t that proceed bonds too?

00:09:04 Whatever the hell selection is.

00:09:05 So I would say that there is an elegant order to it.

00:09:09 Bonds allow selection, allows the emergence of life,

00:09:13 allows the emergence of multicellularity

00:09:15 and then more information processing,

00:09:18 building state machines all the way up.

00:09:19 However, you could imagine a situation if you had,

00:09:23 I don’t know, a neutron star or a sun

00:09:25 or what a ferromagnetic loops interacting with one another

00:09:28 and these oscillators building state machines

00:09:31 and these state machines reading something

00:09:32 out in the environment.

00:09:34 Over time, these state machines would be able

00:09:36 to literally record what happened in the past

00:09:39 and sense what’s going on in the present

00:09:41 and imagine the future.

00:09:43 However, I don’t think it’s ever gonna be

00:09:46 within a human comprehension, that type of life.

00:09:49 I wouldn’t count it out because whenever you say,

00:09:53 I know in science, whenever I say something’s impossible,

00:09:55 I then wake up the next day and say,

00:09:56 no, that’s actually wrong.

00:09:57 I mean, there are some limits, of course.

00:10:00 I don’t see myself traveling fast and light anytime soon,

00:10:03 but…

00:10:04 Eric Weinstein says that’s possible,

00:10:05 so he will say you’re wrong.

00:10:06 Sure, but I’m an experimentalist as well,

00:10:08 so one of my, I have two superpowers.

00:10:11 My stupidity, and I don’t mean that as a,

00:10:14 I’m like absolutely completely witless,

00:10:16 but I mean my ability to kind of just start again

00:10:19 and ask the question and then do it with an experiment.

00:10:22 I always wanted to be a theoretician growing up,

00:10:24 but I just didn’t have the intellectual capability,

00:10:27 but I was able to think of experiments in my head

00:10:30 I could then do in my lab or when I was a child outside

00:10:35 and then those experiments in my head

00:10:37 and then outside reinforced one another.

00:10:40 So I think that’s a very good way of kind of

00:10:42 grounding the science, right?

00:10:44 Well, that’s a nice way to think about theoreticians

00:10:46 is they’re just people who run experiments in their head.

00:10:49 I mean, that’s exactly what Einstein did, right?

00:10:51 But you were also capable of doing that in the head,

00:10:54 in your head, inside your head and in the real world

00:10:57 and the connection between the two

00:10:59 is when you first discovered your superpower stupidity.

00:11:02 I like it.

00:11:03 Yes, there you go.

00:11:04 What’s the second superpower?

00:11:05 Your accent or is that?

00:11:08 Well, I don’t know.

00:11:09 I am genuinely curious.

00:11:11 So I have, like everybody, ego problems,

00:11:15 but my curiosity is bigger than my ego.

00:11:16 So as long as that happens, I can cope.

00:11:20 That’s awesome.

00:11:21 That is so powerful.

00:11:22 You’re just dropping some powerful lines.

00:11:23 So curiosity is bigger than ego.

00:11:26 That’s something I have to think about

00:11:28 because you always struggle about the role of ego in life

00:11:30 and that’s so nice to think about,

00:11:36 don’t think about the size of ego,

00:11:37 the absolute size of ego.

00:11:38 Think about the relative size of ego

00:11:40 to the other horses pulling at you.

00:11:44 If the curiosity one is bigger,

00:11:46 then ego will do just fine and make you fun to talk to.

00:11:51 Anyway, so those are the two superpowers.

00:11:53 How do those connect to natural selection

00:11:55 or selection and bonds and, I forgot already,

00:11:58 life and consciousness?

00:11:59 So we’re going back to selection in the universe

00:12:02 and origin of life on Earth.

00:12:03 I mean, selection, I’m convinced that selection

00:12:07 is a force in the universe.

00:12:09 Not a fundamental force, but it is a directing force

00:12:14 because existence, although existence appears

00:12:18 to be the default, the existence of what,

00:12:21 why does, and we can get to this later, I think,

00:12:24 but it’s amazing that discrete things exist

00:12:29 and you see this cup.

00:12:31 It’s not the sexiest cup in the world,

00:12:33 but it’s pretty functional.

00:12:35 This cup, the complexity of this cup

00:12:38 isn’t just in the object.

00:12:39 It is literally the lineage of people making cups

00:12:42 and recognizing that, seeing that in their head,

00:12:44 making an abstraction of a cup,

00:12:45 and then making a different one.

00:12:47 So I wonder how many billions of cups

00:12:50 have come before this one,

00:12:52 and that’s the process of selection and existence,

00:12:55 and the only reason the cup is still used

00:12:56 is quite useful.

00:12:57 I like the handle.

00:12:58 It’s convenient, so I don’t die.

00:12:59 I keep hydration, and so I think we are missing

00:13:03 something fundamental in the universe about selection,

00:13:07 and I think what biology is is a selection amplifier,

00:13:12 and that this is where autonomy comes in,

00:13:14 and actually I think that how humanity is gonna,

00:13:17 humans and autonomous robots,

00:13:20 or whatever we’re gonna call them in the future,

00:13:22 will supercharge that even further.

00:13:24 So selection is happening in the universe,

00:13:26 but if you look in the asteroid belt,

00:13:28 selection, if objects are being kicked in and out

00:13:31 of the asteroid belt, those trajectories are quite complex.

00:13:35 You don’t really look at that as productive selection

00:13:37 because it’s not doing anything to improve its function,

00:13:40 but is it?

00:13:40 The asteroid belt has existed for some time,

00:13:43 so there is some selection going on,

00:13:45 but the functionality is somewhat limited.

00:13:49 On Earth, at the formation of Earth,

00:13:53 interaction of chemicals and molecules in the environment

00:13:56 gave selection, and then things could happen,

00:13:59 because you could think about, in chemistry,

00:14:01 we could have an infinite number of reactions happen,

00:14:04 but all the reactions that are allowed to happen

00:14:06 don’t happen, why?

00:14:07 Because there are energy barriers.

00:14:08 So there must be some things called catalysts out there,

00:14:12 or there are bits of minerals that,

00:14:14 when two molecules get together in that mineral,

00:14:17 it lowers the energy barrier for the reaction,

00:14:19 and so the reaction is promoted.

00:14:21 So suddenly you get one reaction over another

00:14:24 series of possibilities occurring

00:14:26 that makes a particular molecule,

00:14:28 and this keeps happening in steps,

00:14:30 and before you know it,

00:14:31 almost these waves as discrete reactions work together,

00:14:34 and you start to build a machinery

00:14:38 that is run by existence.

00:14:41 So as you go forward in time,

00:14:44 the fact that the molecules, the bonds are getting,

00:14:48 there are more bonds in a molecule,

00:14:49 there’s more function,

00:14:50 there’s more capability for this molecule

00:14:52 to interact with other molecules, to redirect them,

00:14:55 it’s like a series of little,

00:14:57 and I don’t want to use this term too much,

00:14:59 but it’s almost thinking about

00:15:01 the simplest von Neumann constructor,

00:15:04 that’s the simplest molecule

00:15:05 that could build a more complicated molecule

00:15:07 to build a more complicated molecule,

00:15:09 and before you know it,

00:15:09 when that more complicated molecule

00:15:11 can act on the causal chain that’s produced itself

00:15:14 and change it,

00:15:15 suddenly you start to get towards some kind of autonomy,

00:15:18 and that’s where life, I think, emerges in earnest.

00:15:21 Every single word in the past few paragraphs,

00:15:24 let’s break those apart,

00:15:26 but who’s von Neumann, what’s a constructor,

00:15:30 the closing of the loop that you’re talking about,

00:15:35 the molecule that starts becoming,

00:15:37 I think you said like the smallest von Neumann constructor,

00:15:41 the smallest, the minimal,

00:15:43 so what do all those things mean,

00:15:45 and what is, what are we supposed to imagine

00:15:47 when we think about the smallest von Neumann constructor?

00:15:51 So John von Neumann is a real hero,

00:15:54 actually, not just me, but many people, I think,

00:15:56 computer science and physics.

00:15:58 He was an incredible intellect

00:16:01 who probably solved a lot of the problems

00:16:03 that we’re working on today

00:16:04 and just forgot to write them down.

00:16:05 Yeah.

00:16:06 And I’m not sure if it’s John von Neumann or Johnny,

00:16:09 as I think his friends called him,

00:16:10 but I think he was Hungarian, a mathematician,

00:16:14 came to the US,

00:16:16 and basically was involved in the Manhattan Project

00:16:19 in developing computation

00:16:21 and came up with all sorts of ideas,

00:16:24 and I think he was one of the first people

00:16:25 to come up with cellular automata.

00:16:27 And, but he…

00:16:28 Oh, really?

00:16:29 I didn’t know this little fact.

00:16:30 I think so, I think so.

00:16:31 And I think…

00:16:32 Well, anyway, if he didn’t come up with it,

00:16:34 he probably did come up with it and didn’t write it down.

00:16:37 There was a couple of people who did at the same time,

00:16:38 and then Conway obviously took it on,

00:16:40 and then Wolfram loves CAs.

00:16:42 There is his fabric of the universe.

00:16:44 And what I think he imagined was that he wasn’t satisfied,

00:16:48 and this may be incorrect recollection,

00:16:51 but a lot of what I say is gonna be kind of

00:16:55 just way out of my…

00:16:56 You’re, Lee, you’re just part of the universe

00:17:00 creating its memory, designing…

00:17:02 Exactly, yeah, rewriting history.

00:17:04 Rewriting history.

00:17:05 Exactly, imperfectly.

00:17:06 So, but what I mean is I think he liked this idea

00:17:09 of thinking about how could a Turing machine

00:17:14 literally build itself without a Turing machine, right?

00:17:16 It’s like literally how did state machines emerge?

00:17:19 And I think that von Neumann constructors,

00:17:21 he wanted to conceive of a minimal thing,

00:17:24 autonomous, that could build itself.

00:17:28 And what would those rules look like in the world?

00:17:30 And that’s what a von Neumann kind of constructor

00:17:32 looked like, like it’s a minimal hypothetical object

00:17:35 that could build itself, self replicate.

00:17:37 And I’m really fascinated by that

00:17:41 because I think that although it’s probably not

00:17:45 exactly what happened, it’s a nice model

00:17:47 because as chemists, if we could go back

00:17:49 to the origin of life and think about

00:17:51 what is a minimal machine that can get structured randomly?

00:17:55 So like with no prime mover, with no architect,

00:18:01 it assembles through just existence.

00:18:03 So random stuff bumping in together

00:18:06 and you make this first molecule.

00:18:07 So you have molecule A and molecule A interacts

00:18:11 with another random molecule B and they get together

00:18:14 and they realize by working together

00:18:15 they can make more of themselves,

00:18:17 but then they realize they can mutate

00:18:19 so they can make AB prime.

00:18:21 So AB prime is different to AB

00:18:24 and then AB prime can then act back

00:18:27 where A and B are being created

00:18:29 and slightly nudge that causal chain

00:18:32 and make AB prime more evolvable or learn more.

00:18:38 So that’s the closing the loop part.

00:18:40 Closing the loop part, got it.

00:18:42 It feels like the mutation part is not that difficult.

00:18:46 It feels like the difficult part

00:18:48 is just creating a copy of yourself as step one.

00:18:50 That seems like one of the greatest inventions

00:18:56 in the history of the universe is the first molecule

00:19:00 that figured out, holy shit, I can create a copy of myself.

00:19:04 How hard is that?

00:19:06 I think it’s really, really easy.

00:19:09 Okay, I did not expect that.

00:19:11 I think it’s really, really easy.

00:19:12 Well, let’s take a step back.

00:19:15 I think replicating molecules are rare,

00:19:19 but if you say, I think I was saying on,

00:19:22 I probably got into trouble on Twitter the other day,

00:19:23 so I was trying to work this.

00:19:24 There’s about more than 18 mils of water in there.

00:19:27 So one mole of water, 6.022 times 10 to the 23 molecules.

00:19:31 That’s about the number of stars in universe, I think,

00:19:33 of the order.

00:19:34 So there’s three universe worth, but between one and.

00:19:37 Somebody corrected you on Twitter?

00:19:38 Yeah, as if, I’m always being corrected.

00:19:40 It’s a great, but there’s a lot of molecules in the water.

00:19:44 And so there’s a lot of, so although it’s for you and me,

00:19:47 really hard to conceive of,

00:19:49 if existence is not the default for a long period of time,

00:19:55 because what happens is the molecules get degraded.

00:19:57 So much of the possibilities in the universe

00:20:00 are just broken back into atoms.

00:20:01 So you have this kind of destruction of the molecules

00:20:06 for our chemical reactions.

00:20:07 So you only need one or two molecules

00:20:09 to become good at copying themselves

00:20:12 for them suddenly to then take resources in the pool

00:20:15 and start to grow.

00:20:16 And so then replication actually over time,

00:20:18 when you have bonds, I think is much simpler, much easier.

00:20:23 And I even found this in my lab years ago.

00:20:25 I had one of the reasons I started doing inorganic chemistry

00:20:29 and making rust, making a bit of rust based on

00:20:32 a thing called molybdenum, molybdenum oxide

00:20:35 is this molybdenum oxide, very simple.

00:20:38 But when you add acid to it and some electrons,

00:20:40 they make these molecules you just cannot possibly imagine

00:20:44 would be constructed big, gigantic wheels

00:20:46 of 154 molybdenum atoms in a wheel

00:20:50 or I cost a dodecahedron 132 molybdenum atoms

00:20:54 all in the same pot.

00:20:55 And I realized when I,

00:20:56 and I just finished experiments two years ago,

00:20:58 I’ve just published a couple of papers on this,

00:21:00 that they’re actually, there is a random small molecule

00:21:05 with 12 atoms in it that can form randomly,

00:21:07 but it happens to template its own production.

00:21:10 And then by chance, it templates the ring,

00:21:14 just an accident, just like just an absolute accident.

00:21:17 And that ring also helps make the small 12 mer.

00:21:21 And so you have what’s called an autocatalytic set

00:21:25 where A makes B and B helps make A and vice versa.

00:21:32 And you then make this loop.

00:21:34 So it’s a bit like these, they all work in synergy

00:21:39 to make this chain of events that grow.

00:21:43 And it doesn’t take a very sophisticated model

00:21:46 to show that if you have these objects are competing

00:21:50 and then collaborating to help one another build,

00:21:53 they just grow out of the mess.

00:21:55 And although they seem improbable,

00:21:56 they are improbable, in fact, impossible in one step.

00:22:01 There’s multiple steps.

00:22:02 This is when the blind people look

00:22:04 at the blind watchmaker argument

00:22:06 and you talk about how could a watch spontaneously emerge?

00:22:10 Well, it doesn’t.

00:22:11 It’s a lineage of watches and cruder devices

00:22:14 that are bootstrapped onto one another.

00:22:19 Right, so it’s very improbable,

00:22:23 but once you get that little discovery

00:22:25 like with the wheel and fire,

00:22:29 it just explodes because it’s so successful, it explodes.

00:22:34 It explodes, it’s basically selection.

00:22:37 So this templating mechanism that allows you

00:22:40 to have a little like blueprint for yourself,

00:22:43 how you go through different procedures

00:22:45 is to build copies of yourself.

00:22:49 So in chemistry somehow it’s possible to imagine

00:22:52 that that kind of thing is easy to spring up.

00:22:57 In more complex organisms, it feels like a different thing

00:22:59 and much more complicated.

00:23:00 Like we’re having like multiple abstractions

00:23:04 of the birds and the bees conversation here,

00:23:06 but with human, I’m sorry, with complex organisms,

00:23:10 it feels like difficult to have reproduction to,

00:23:15 that’s gonna get clipped out.

00:23:17 I’m gonna make fun of that.

00:23:18 It’s difficult to develop this idea

00:23:23 of making copies of yourself or no.

00:23:26 Because that seems like a magical idea for life to,

00:23:30 but wow, that feels like very necessary

00:23:35 for what selection is, for what evolution is.

00:23:37 But then if selection precedes all of this,

00:23:40 then maybe these are just like echoes

00:23:43 of the selecting mechanism at different scales.

00:23:47 Yeah, that’s exactly it.

00:23:48 So selection is the default in the universe if you want to.

00:23:52 And what happens is that life,

00:23:54 the solution that life has got on earth,

00:23:57 life on earth, biology on earth is unique to earth.

00:24:01 We can talk about that.

00:24:03 And that was really hard fought for,

00:24:05 but that is a solution that works on earth,

00:24:08 the ribosome, the fundamental machine

00:24:10 that is responsible for every cell on earth

00:24:15 of whatever, wherever it is in the kingdom of life.

00:24:18 That is an incredibly complex object,

00:24:21 but it was evolved over time

00:24:22 and it wasn’t involved in a vacuum.

00:24:24 And I think that once we understand that selection

00:24:27 can occur without the ribosome,

00:24:32 but what the ribosome does,

00:24:34 it’s a phase transition in replication.

00:24:37 And I think that that, and also technology

00:24:39 that is probably much easier to get to than we think.

00:24:45 Why do you put the ribosome as a central part

00:24:50 of living organisms on earth?

00:24:52 It basically is a combination

00:24:53 of two different polymer systems, so RNA and peptides.

00:24:57 So the RNA world, if you like,

00:24:59 gets transmitted and builds proteins

00:25:02 and the proteins are responsible for all the catalysis.

00:25:05 The majority of the catalysis goes on in the cell.

00:25:07 No ribosome, no proteins, no decoding, no evolution.

00:25:11 So ribosome is looking at the action.

00:25:14 You don’t put like the RNA itself as the critical thing,

00:25:17 like information, you put action as the most important thing.

00:25:20 I think the actual molecules

00:25:22 that we have in biology right now are entirely contingent

00:25:24 on the history of life on earth.

00:25:27 There are so many possible solutions.

00:25:29 And this is where chemistry got itself into,

00:25:31 origin of life chemistry gets itself into a bit of a trap.

00:25:33 Yeah, let me interrupt you there.

00:25:35 You’ve tweeted, you’re gonna get,

00:25:36 I’m gonna cite your tweets like it’s Shakespeare, okay?

00:25:40 It’s surprising you haven’t gotten canceled on Twitter yet.

00:25:43 Your brilliance once again saves you.

00:25:46 I’m just kidding.

00:25:49 You like to have a little bit of fun on Twitter.

00:25:51 You’ve tweeted that quote,

00:25:52 origin of life research is a scam.

00:25:56 So if this is Shakespeare, can we analyze this word?

00:26:00 Why is the origin of life research a scam?

00:26:02 Aren’t you kind of doing origin of life research?

00:26:06 Okay, it was tongue in cheek, but yeah,

00:26:08 I think, and I meant it as tongue in cheek.

00:26:12 I’m not doing the origin of life research.

00:26:14 I’m trying to make artificial life.

00:26:16 And I also want to bound the likelihood

00:26:19 of the origin of life on earth,

00:26:21 but more importantly to find origin of life elsewhere.

00:26:23 But let me directly address the tweet.

00:26:26 There are many, many good chemists out there

00:26:27 doing origin of life research, but I want to nudge them.

00:26:31 And I think they’re brilliant.

00:26:32 Like there’s no question the chemistry they are doing,

00:26:36 the motivation is great.

00:26:38 So what I meant by that tweet is saying

00:26:40 that maybe they’re making assumptions about saying,

00:26:43 if only I could make this particular type of molecule,

00:26:47 say this RNA molecule or this phosphodiester

00:26:52 or this other molecule,

00:26:54 it’s gonna somehow unlock the origin of life.

00:26:57 And I think that origin of life has been looking at this

00:27:00 for a very long time.

00:27:01 And whilst I think it’s brilliant to work out

00:27:05 how you can get to those molecules,

00:27:08 I think that chemistry and chemists doing origin of life

00:27:11 could be nudged into doing something even more profound.

00:27:15 And so the argument I’m making,

00:27:18 it’s a bit like right now,

00:27:20 let’s say, I don’t know, the first Tesla

00:27:22 that makes its way to, I don’t know,

00:27:25 into a new country in the world.

00:27:27 Let’s say there’s a country X

00:27:29 that has never had a Tesla before

00:27:31 and they get the Tesla.

00:27:32 Russia.

00:27:32 And they take the Tesla,

00:27:34 and what they do is they take the Tesla apart

00:27:35 and say, we want to find the origin of cars in the universe

00:27:38 and say, okay, how did this form and how did this form?

00:27:41 And they just randomly keep making

00:27:42 till they make the door, they make the wheel,

00:27:44 they make the steering column and all this stuff.

00:27:46 And they say, well, that’s the route.

00:27:48 That’s the way cars emerged on earth.

00:27:50 But actually we know that there’s a causal chain of cars

00:27:53 going right back to Henry Ford and the horse and carriage.

00:27:56 And before that, maybe, you know,

00:27:58 where people were using wheels.

00:28:00 And I think that obsession with the identities

00:28:04 that we see in biology right now

00:28:06 are giving us a false sense of security

00:28:09 about what we’re looking for.

00:28:10 And I think that origin of life chemistry is in danger

00:28:17 of not making the progress that it deserves

00:28:20 because the chemists are doing this.

00:28:22 The field is exploding right now.

00:28:24 There’s amazing people out there, young and old doing this.

00:28:27 And there’s deservedly so more money going in.

00:28:30 You know, I used to complain

00:28:31 there’s more money being spent searching for the Higgs boson

00:28:34 that we know exists than the origin of life.

00:28:36 You know, why is that?

00:28:37 The origin, we understand the origin of life.

00:28:39 We’re gonna actually work out what life is.

00:28:42 And we’re gonna be at a bound,

00:28:43 the likelihood of finding life elsewhere in the universe.

00:28:45 And most important for us,

00:28:47 we are gonna know or have a good idea

00:28:49 of what the future of humanity looks like.

00:28:51 You know, we need to understand

00:28:53 that although we’re precious,

00:28:54 we’re not the only life forms in the universe.

00:28:57 Or that’s my very strong impression.

00:28:58 I have no data for that.

00:29:00 It’s just right now a belief.

00:29:02 And I want to turn that belief

00:29:03 into a more than a belief by experimentation.

00:29:07 But coming back to the scam,

00:29:09 the scam is if we just make this RNA,

00:29:11 we’ve got this fluke event, we know how that’s simple.

00:29:17 Let’s make this phosphodiester,

00:29:19 or let’s make ATP or ADP.

00:29:21 We’ve got that part nailed.

00:29:22 Let’s now make this other molecule, another molecule.

00:29:24 And how many molecules are gonna be enough?

00:29:26 And then the reason I say this

00:29:28 is when you go back to Craig Venter,

00:29:30 when he invented his life form, Cyndia,

00:29:35 this micro, this minimal plasmid,

00:29:38 it’s a myoplasma, something, I don’t know the name of it,

00:29:43 but he made this wonderful cell

00:29:45 and said, I’ve invented life.

00:29:48 Not quite.

00:29:49 He facsimileed the genome from this entity

00:29:52 and made it in the lab, all the DNA,

00:29:55 but he didn’t make the cell.

00:29:56 He had to take an existing cell

00:30:00 that has a causal chain going all the way back to Luca.

00:30:02 And he showed when he took out the gene,

00:30:05 the genes and put in his genes, synthesized,

00:30:08 the cell could boot up.

00:30:09 But it’s remarkable that he could not make a cell

00:30:11 from scratch.

00:30:12 And even now today, synthetic biologists

00:30:15 cannot make a cell from scratch

00:30:17 because there’s some contingent information embodied

00:30:20 outside the genome in the cell.

00:30:23 And that is just incredible.

00:30:26 So there’s lots of layers to the scam.

00:30:29 Well, let me then ask the question,

00:30:32 how can we create life in the lab from scratch?

00:30:37 What have been the most promising attempts

00:30:39 at creating life in the lab from scratch?

00:30:41 Has anyone actually been able to do it?

00:30:44 Do you think anyone will be able to do it

00:30:46 in the near future if they haven’t already?

00:30:50 Yeah, I think that nobody has made life

00:30:53 in the lab from scratch.

00:30:54 Lots of people would argue that they have made progress.

00:30:57 So Craig Venter, I think the synthesis

00:30:59 of a synthetic genome milestone in human achievement.

00:31:03 Brilliant.

00:31:04 Yeah, can we just walk back and say,

00:31:06 what would you say from your perspective,

00:31:09 one of the world experts in exactly this area,

00:31:12 what does it mean to create life from scratch

00:31:15 where if you sit back, whether you do it

00:31:17 or somebody else does it, it’s like,

00:31:20 damn, this is, we just created life.

00:31:24 Well, I can tell you what I would expect,

00:31:27 I would like to be able to do,

00:31:30 is to go from sand to cells in my lab and…

00:31:37 Can you explain what sand is?

00:31:39 Yeah, just inorganic stuff, like basically just,

00:31:42 so sand is just silicon oxide with some other ions in it,

00:31:47 maybe some inorganic carbon, some carbonates,

00:31:50 just basically clearly dead stuff

00:31:52 that you could just grind rocks into sand.

00:31:55 And it would be what, in a kind of vacuum

00:31:57 so they could remove anything else

00:31:59 that could possibly be like a shadow of life

00:32:05 that can assist in the chemical.

00:32:06 You could do that, you could insist and say,

00:32:07 look, I’m gonna take, and not just inorganic,

00:32:09 I want some more, I wanna cheat and have some organic,

00:32:12 but I want inorganic organic,

00:32:13 and I’ll explain the play on words in a moment.

00:32:16 So I would like to basically put into a world,

00:32:19 let’s say a completely synthetic world, if you like,

00:32:23 a closed world, put some inorganic materials

00:32:26 and just literally add some energy in some form,

00:32:30 be it lightning or heat, UV light,

00:32:33 and run this thing in cycles over time

00:32:37 and let it solve the search problem.

00:32:38 So I see the origin of life as a search problem

00:32:41 in chemical space.

00:32:42 And then I would wait, literally wait for a life form

00:32:45 to crawl out of the test tube.

00:32:46 That’s a joke I tell my group.

00:32:48 Literally wait for a very, don’t worry,

00:32:51 it’s gonna be very feeble,

00:32:52 it’s not gonna take over the world.

00:32:54 There’s ways of ethically containing it.

00:32:56 Famous last words.

00:32:58 Indeed, indeed, indeed, but I.

00:33:01 You know this is being recorded, right?

00:33:03 It’ll make you, it will not make you look good

00:33:05 once it crawls out of the lab

00:33:07 and destroys all of human civilization, but yes.

00:33:09 But there is very good,

00:33:11 there is a very good things you can do to prevent that.

00:33:13 For instance, if you put stuff in your world,

00:33:15 which isn’t earth abundant,

00:33:17 so let’s say we make life based on molybdenum

00:33:20 and it escapes, it would die immediately

00:33:21 because there’s not enough molybdenum in the environment.

00:33:23 So we can put in, we can do responsible life.

00:33:26 Or as I fantasize with my research group on our away day

00:33:29 that would go in, it’s, you know,

00:33:31 I think it’s actually morally if we don’t find,

00:33:36 until humanity finds life in the universe,

00:33:38 this is going on a tangent,

00:33:39 it’s our moral obligation to make origin of life bombs,

00:33:42 identify dead planets and bomb them

00:33:43 with our origin of life machines and make them alive.

00:33:46 I think it is our moral obligation to do that.

00:33:50 Some people might argue with me about that,

00:33:51 but I think that we need more life in the universe.

00:33:54 And then we kind of forget we did it

00:33:58 and then come back and then.

00:34:00 So where did you come from?

00:34:02 But coming back to the, what I’d expect.

00:34:04 So I just say. Father, are you back?

00:34:06 I think this is once again, a Rick and Morty episode.

00:34:09 It’s definitely all Rick and Morty all the way down.

00:34:11 So we, I imagine we have this pristine experiment

00:34:15 and everything is, you know, sanitized

00:34:18 and we put in inorganic materials

00:34:20 and we have cycles with them,

00:34:22 day, night cycles, up, down, whatever.

00:34:24 And we look for evidence of replication

00:34:27 and evolution over time.

00:34:28 And that’s what the experiment should be.

00:34:30 Now, are there people doing this in the world right now?

00:34:32 There are a couple of,

00:34:33 there’s some really good groups doing this.

00:34:35 There’s some really interesting scientists

00:34:37 doing this around the world.

00:34:38 They’re kind of perhaps too much associated with the scam.

00:34:44 So, and so they’re using molecules

00:34:48 that are already, were already invented by biology.

00:34:50 So there’s a bit of replication built in,

00:34:54 but I still think the work that is doing,

00:34:55 they’re doing is amazing.

00:34:57 But I would like people to be a bit freer and say,

00:35:00 let’s just basically shake a load of sand in a box

00:35:03 and wait for life to come out

00:35:04 because that’s what happened on earth.

00:35:06 And so that we have to understand that.

00:35:08 Now, how would I know I’ve been successful?

00:35:10 Well, because I’m not obsessing

00:35:11 with what molecules are in life now,

00:35:15 I would wager a vast quantity of money.

00:35:19 I’m not very rich, so just be a few dollars,

00:35:21 but for me, the solution space will be different.

00:35:27 So the genetic material will be not RNA.

00:35:31 The proteins will not be what we think.

00:35:33 The solutions will be just completely different.

00:35:36 And it might be, and it will be very feeble

00:35:37 because that’s the other thing we should be able to show

00:35:40 fairly robustly that even if I did make

00:35:43 or someone did make a new life form in the lab,

00:35:46 it would be so poor that it’s not gonna leap out.

00:35:50 It is the fear about making a lethal life form

00:35:56 in the lab from scratch is similar to us imagining

00:36:00 that we’re gonna make the terminator

00:36:02 at Boston Dynamics tomorrow.

00:36:04 Simply not, and the problem is

00:36:07 we don’t communicate that properly.

00:36:08 I know you yourself very, you explain this very well.

00:36:12 There is not the AI catastrophe coming.

00:36:15 We’re very far away from that.

00:36:16 That doesn’t mean we should ignore it.

00:36:18 Same with the origin of life catastrophe.

00:36:19 It’s not coming anytime soon.

00:36:21 We shouldn’t ignore it, but we shouldn’t let that fear

00:36:24 stop us from doing those experiments.

00:36:26 But this is a much, much longer discussion

00:36:28 because there’s a lot of details there.

00:36:29 I would say there is potential for catastrophic events

00:36:33 to happen in much dumber ways.

00:36:36 In AI space, there’s a lot of ways to create,

00:36:40 like social networks are creating a kind

00:36:43 of accelerated set of events

00:36:46 that we might not be able to control.

00:36:48 The social network virality in the digital space

00:36:53 can create mass movements of ideas that can then,

00:36:58 if times are tough, create military conflict

00:37:01 and all those kinds of things.

00:37:02 But that’s not super intelligent AI.

00:37:05 That’s an interesting at scale application of AI.

00:37:09 If you look at viruses, viruses are pretty dumb,

00:37:13 but at scale, their application is pretty detrimental.

00:37:16 And so origin of life, much like all the kind of virology,

00:37:25 the very contentious word of gain of function research

00:37:28 and virology, sort of like research on viruses,

00:37:33 messing with them genetically,

00:37:36 that can create a lot of problems if not done well.

00:37:38 So we have to be very cautious.

00:37:41 So there’s a kind of,

00:37:43 whenever you’re ultra cautious about stuff in AI

00:37:47 or in virology and biology,

00:37:50 it borders on cynicism, I would say,

00:37:53 where it’s like everything we do is going to turn out

00:37:56 to be destructive and terrible.

00:37:58 So I’m just going to sit here and do nothing.

00:38:00 Okay, that’s a possible solution except for the fact

00:38:04 that somebody is going to do it.

00:38:06 It’s science and technology progresses.

00:38:10 So we have to do it in an ethical way, in a good way,

00:38:14 considering in a transparent way, in an open way,

00:38:18 considering all the possible positive trajectories

00:38:23 that could be taken and making sure as much as possible

00:38:26 that we walk those trajectories.

00:38:28 So yeah, I don’t think Terminator is coming,

00:38:31 but a totally unexpected version of Terminator

00:38:35 may be around the corner.

00:38:36 Might be here already.

00:38:37 Yeah, so I agree with that.

00:38:38 And so going back to the origin of life discussion,

00:38:41 I think that in synthetic biology right now,

00:38:44 we have to be very careful about how we edit genomes

00:38:49 and edit synthetic biology to do things.

00:38:51 So that’s kind of, that’s where things might go wrong

00:38:53 in the same way as Twitter turning ourselves

00:38:56 into kind of strange scale effects.

00:38:59 I would love origin of life research

00:39:01 or artificial life research to get to the point

00:39:04 where we have those worries,

00:39:06 because that’s why I think we’re just so far away from that.

00:39:08 We are just, you know, right now,

00:39:10 I think there are two really important angles.

00:39:13 There is the origin of life people,

00:39:15 researchers who are faithfully working on this

00:39:18 and trying to make those molecules,

00:39:20 the scan molecules I talked about.

00:39:22 And then there are people on the creationist side

00:39:24 who are saying, look,

00:39:25 the fact you can’t make these molecules

00:39:26 and you can’t make a cell means that evolution isn’t true

00:39:29 and all this other stuff.

00:39:30 Gotcha.

00:39:31 Yeah, and so, and I find that really frustrating

00:39:34 because actually the origin of life research

00:39:35 is all working in good faith, right?

00:39:37 Yes.

00:39:38 And so what I’m trying to do

00:39:40 is give origin of life research

00:39:41 a little bit more of an open context.

00:39:47 And one of the things I think is important,

00:39:49 I really want to make a new life form in my lifetime.

00:39:52 I really want to prove that life is a general phenomena,

00:39:56 a bit like gravity in the universe,

00:39:58 because I think that’s gonna be really important

00:39:59 for humanity’s global psychological state,

00:40:04 meaning going forward.

00:40:06 That’s beautifully put.

00:40:09 So one, it will help us understand ourselves.

00:40:12 So that’s useful for science,

00:40:14 but two, it gives us a kind of hope,

00:40:17 if not an awe at all the huge amounts

00:40:23 of alien civilizations that are out there.

00:40:26 If you can build life and understand

00:40:29 just how easy it is to build life,

00:40:31 then that’s just as good, if not much better,

00:40:35 than discovering life on another planet.

00:40:38 Yeah.

00:40:39 It’s, I mean, it’s cheaper.

00:40:41 It’s much cheaper and much easier

00:40:44 and probably much more conclusive

00:40:47 because once you’re able to create life,

00:40:50 like you said, it’s a search problem

00:40:52 that there’s probably a lot of different ways to do it.

00:40:55 Once you create the, once you find the first solution,

00:40:58 you probably have all the right methodology

00:41:00 for finding all kinds of other solutions.

00:41:02 Yeah, and wouldn’t it be great

00:41:03 if we could find a solution?

00:41:04 I mean, it’s probably a bit late for,

00:41:07 I mean, I worry about climate change,

00:41:09 but I’m not that worried about climate change,

00:41:10 and I think one day you could think about,

00:41:13 could we engineer a new type of life form

00:41:15 that could basically, and I don’t want to do this,

00:41:17 and I don’t think we should do this necessarily,

00:41:19 but it’s a good thought experiment

00:41:21 that would perhaps take CO2 out of the atmosphere

00:41:23 or an intermediate life form, so it’s not quite alive.

00:41:26 It’s almost like an add on

00:41:28 that we can, with a time dependent add on,

00:41:32 you could give to say cyanobacteria in the ocean

00:41:35 or to maybe to wheat and say, right,

00:41:37 we’re just gonna, we’re gonna fix a bit more CO2,

00:41:40 and we’re gonna work out how much we need to fix

00:41:42 to basically save the climate,

00:41:44 and we’re gonna use evolutionary principles

00:41:47 to basically get there.

00:41:49 What worries me is that biology has had a few billion years

00:41:51 to find a solution for CO2 fixation,

00:41:54 hasn’t really done, it’s not,

00:41:57 the solution isn’t brilliant for our needs,

00:41:58 but biology wasn’t thinking about our needs.

00:42:00 Biology was thinking about biology’s needs,

00:42:03 but I think if we can do, as you say,

00:42:05 make life in the lab, then suddenly we don’t need

00:42:08 to go to everywhere and conclusively prove it.

00:42:10 I think we make life in the lab.

00:42:12 We look at the extent of life in the solar system.

00:42:14 How far did Earth life get?

00:42:16 Probably we’re all Martians.

00:42:17 Probably life got going on Mars.

00:42:19 The chemistry on Mars seeded Earth.

00:42:21 That might have been a legitimate way

00:42:22 to kind of truncate the surface.

00:42:25 But in the outer solar system,

00:42:26 we might have completely different life forms

00:42:28 on Enceladus, on Europa, and Titan.

00:42:32 And that would be a cool thing, because.

00:42:33 Okay, wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute.

00:42:36 Did you just say that you think, in terms of likelihood,

00:42:40 life started on Mars, like statistically speaking,

00:42:43 life started on Mars and seeded Earth?

00:42:45 It could be possible, because life was,

00:42:48 so Mars was habitable for the type of life

00:42:50 that we have right now, type of chemistry before Earth.

00:42:53 So it seems to me that Mars got searching,

00:42:57 doing chemistry, like, and.

00:42:59 It started way before.

00:43:00 Yeah, and so they had a few more replicators

00:43:03 and some other stuff.

00:43:04 And if those replicators got ejected from Mars

00:43:06 and landed on Earth, and Earth was like,

00:43:09 I don’t need to start again.

00:43:10 Right.

00:43:11 Thanks for that.

00:43:12 And then it just carried on.

00:43:13 So I’m not going, I think we will find evidence

00:43:16 of life on Mars, either life we put there by mistake,

00:43:20 contamination, or actually life,

00:43:22 the earliest remnants of life.

00:43:24 And that would be really exciting.

00:43:26 It’s a really good reason to go there.

00:43:28 But I think it’s more unlikely,

00:43:29 because the gravitational situation in the solar system,

00:43:31 if we find life in the outer solar system.

00:43:33 Titan and all that, that would be its own thing.

00:43:35 Exactly.

00:43:36 Wow, that would be so cool.

00:43:37 If we go to Mars and we find life that looks

00:43:40 a hell of a lot similar to Earth life,

00:43:43 and then we go to Titan and all those weird moons

00:43:46 with the ices and the volcanoes and all that kind of stuff,

00:43:49 and then we find there something that looks,

00:43:52 I don’t know, way weirder.

00:43:54 Yeah.

00:43:55 Some other, some non RNA type of situation.

00:43:57 But we might find almost life,

00:43:59 like in the prebiotic chemical space.

00:44:01 And I think there are four types of exoplanets

00:44:03 we need to look for, right?

00:44:04 Because when JWST goes up and touch wood,

00:44:07 it goes up and everything’s fine.

00:44:09 When we look at a star, well, we know statistically,

00:44:12 most stars have planets around them.

00:44:13 What type of planet are they?

00:44:14 Are they going to be dead?

00:44:16 Are they going to be just a prebiotic origin of life coming?

00:44:20 So are they going to be technological?

00:44:23 So with intelligence on them, and will they have died?

00:44:27 So, you know, had life on them, but gone.

00:44:30 Those are the four states of the boat.

00:44:32 And suddenly, it’s a bit like I want to classify planets

00:44:34 the way we classify stars.

00:44:36 Yeah.

00:44:37 And I think that, in terms of their,

00:44:39 rather than having this, oh, we’ve found methane,

00:44:42 there’s evidence of life.

00:44:43 We found oxygen, that’s the evidence of life.

00:44:45 We found whatever molecule marker.

00:44:47 And start to then frame things a little bit more.

00:44:51 As those four states.

00:44:52 Yeah.

00:44:53 Which, by the way, you’re just saying four,

00:44:55 but there could be, before the dead,

00:44:58 there could be other states

00:45:00 that we humans can even conceive of.

00:45:01 Yeah, yeah, just prebiotic, almost alive,

00:45:04 got the possibility to come alive.

00:45:06 I think.

00:45:07 But there could be a post technological.

00:45:08 Like, whatever we think of as technology,

00:45:12 that could be a, like, pre conscious,

00:45:17 like, where we all meld into one super intelligent conscious,

00:45:20 or some weird thing that naturally happens over time.

00:45:23 Yeah, yeah.

00:45:24 I mean, I think that all bets are on that.

00:45:26 The metaverse.

00:45:28 Yeah, we are.

00:45:29 We join into a virtual metaverse and start creating,

00:45:33 which is kind of an interesting idea,

00:45:35 almost arbitrary number of copies of each other,

00:45:38 much more quickly, so we can mess with different ideas.

00:45:41 Like, I can create a thousand copies of Lex,

00:45:45 like, every possible version of Lex,

00:45:48 and then just see, like,

00:45:49 and then I just have them, like, argue with each other,

00:45:52 and, like, until, like, in the space of ideas

00:45:54 and see who wins out.

00:45:56 How could that possibly go wrong?

00:45:58 But anyway, there’s, especially in this digital space

00:46:01 where you could start exploring with AIs mixed in,

00:46:04 you could start engineering arbitrary intelligences,

00:46:07 you can start playing in the space of ideas,

00:46:10 which might move us into a world that looks very different

00:46:13 than a biological world.

00:46:15 Like, our current world, the technology,

00:46:17 is still very much tied to our biology.

00:46:20 It’s, we might move past that completely.

00:46:23 Oh, definitely, we definitely will.

00:46:25 We definitely, but that could be another phase then.

00:46:27 Sure.

00:46:28 Because then you, yeah.

00:46:29 But I did say technological, so I think I agree with you.

00:46:30 I think, so you can have, let’s get this right.

00:46:32 So, dead world, no prospect of alive.

00:46:36 Prebiotic world, life emerging.

00:46:38 Living and technological.

00:46:40 And you probably, and the dead one,

00:46:42 you probably won’t be able to tell

00:46:43 between the dead never being alive and the dead one,

00:46:46 maybe you’ve got some artifacts and maybe there’s five.

00:46:48 There’s probably not more than five.

00:46:50 And I think the technological one could allow,

00:46:53 could have life on it still,

00:46:54 but it might just have exceeded.

00:46:56 Because, you know, one way that life might survive on Earth

00:46:58 is if we can work out how to deal with the coming,

00:47:01 the real climate change that comes when the sun expands.

00:47:05 It might be a way to survive that, you know, but yeah.

00:47:10 I think that we need to start thinking statistically

00:47:12 when it comes to looking for life in the universe.

00:47:15 Let me ask you then, sort of statistically,

00:47:20 how many alien civilizations are out there

00:47:23 in those four phases that you’re talking about?

00:47:26 When you look up to the stars

00:47:28 and you’re sipping on some wine

00:47:30 and talking to other people with British accents

00:47:35 about something intelligent and intellectual, I’m sure.

00:47:39 Do you think there’s a lot of alien civilizations

00:47:42 looking back at us and wondering the same?

00:47:45 My romantic view of the universe

00:47:48 is really taking loans from my logical self.

00:47:52 So what I’m saying is I have no doubt, I have no idea.

00:47:55 But having said that, there is no reason to suppose

00:48:01 that life is as hard as we first thought it was.

00:48:04 And so if we just take Earth as a marker,

00:48:08 and if I think that life is a much more general phenomena

00:48:12 than just our biology,

00:48:13 then I think the universe is full of life.

00:48:16 And the reason for the Fermi paradox

00:48:18 is not that they’re not out there,

00:48:22 it’s just that we can’t interact with the other life forms

00:48:24 because they’re so different.

00:48:27 And I’m not saying that they’re necessarily like

00:48:28 hasn’t depicted in Arrival or other, you know,

00:48:31 I’m just saying that perhaps

00:48:36 there are very few universal facts in the universe

00:48:40 and maybe our technologies are quite divergent.

00:48:47 And so I think that it’s very hard to know

00:48:49 how we’re gonna interact with alien life.

00:48:51 You think there’s a lot of kinds of life that’s possible.

00:48:54 I guess that was the intuition you provided

00:48:57 that the way biology itself,

00:49:02 but even this particular kinds of biology

00:49:04 that we have on Earth is something that is just one sample

00:49:11 of nearly infinite number of other possible,

00:49:15 complex, autonomous, self replicating type of things

00:49:19 that could be possible.

00:49:20 And so we’re almost unable to see

00:49:24 the alternative versions of us, huh?

00:49:28 I mean, we’ll still be able to detect them,

00:49:31 we’ll still be able to interact with them,

00:49:33 we’ll still be able to like which,

00:49:36 what’s exactly is lost in translation?

00:49:39 Why can’t we see them?

00:49:41 Why can’t we talk to them?

00:49:42 Because I too have a sense,

00:49:47 you put it way more poetically,

00:49:49 but it seems both statistically

00:49:54 and sort of romantically,

00:49:58 it feels like the universe should be teeming with life,

00:50:02 like super intelligent life.

00:50:04 And I just, I sit there and the Fermi paradox is very,

00:50:10 it’s felt very distinctly by me

00:50:12 when I look up at the stars because it’s like,

00:50:15 it’s the same way I feel when I’m driving

00:50:18 through New Jersey and listening to Bruce Springsteen

00:50:20 and feel quite sad.

00:50:23 It’s like Lucy Kay talks about pulling off

00:50:25 to the side of the road and just weeping a little bit.

00:50:27 I’m almost like wondering like,

00:50:31 hey, why aren’t you talking to us?

00:50:33 It feels lonely, it feels lonely

00:50:35 because it feels like they’re out there.

00:50:38 I think that there are a number of answers to that.

00:50:40 I think the Fermi paradox is perhaps based

00:50:42 on the assumption that if life did emerge in the universe,

00:50:47 it would be similar to our life

00:50:49 and there’s only one solution.

00:50:50 And I think that what we’ve got to start to do

00:50:52 is go out and look for selection detection

00:50:56 rather than an evolution detection,

00:50:58 rather than life detection.

00:51:01 And I think that once we start to do that,

00:51:03 we might start to see really interesting things.

00:51:07 And we haven’t been doing this for very long

00:51:10 and we are living in an expanding universe

00:51:12 and that makes the problem a little bit harder.

00:51:15 Everybody’s always leaving distance wise.

00:51:19 I’m very optimistic that we will,

00:51:22 well, I don’t know, there are two movies that came out

00:51:25 within six months of one another,

00:51:27 Ad Astra and Cosmos.

00:51:30 Ad Astra, the very expensive blockbuster

00:51:32 with Brad Pitt in it and saying there is no life

00:51:35 and it’s all, we’ve got to,

00:51:37 life on Earth has more pressures than Cosmos,

00:51:39 which is a UK production,

00:51:40 which basically aliens came and visited Earth one day

00:51:42 and they were discovered in the UK, right?

00:51:45 It was quite, it’s a fun film.

00:51:48 But I really loved those two films.

00:51:50 And at the same time, those films,

00:51:53 at the time those films were coming out,

00:51:54 I was working on a paper, a life detection paper,

00:51:58 and I found it was so hard to publish this paper

00:52:02 and it was almost as depressed,

00:52:03 I got so depressed trying to get this science out there

00:52:06 that I felt the depression of the film in Ad Astra,

00:52:11 like life, there’s no life elsewhere in the universe.

00:52:14 And, but I’m incredibly optimistic

00:52:17 that I think we will find life in the universe,

00:52:19 firm evidence of life,

00:52:21 and it will have to start on Earth,

00:52:22 making life on Earth and surprising us.

00:52:24 We have to surprise ourselves

00:52:25 and make non biological life on Earth.

00:52:28 And then people say, well, you made this life on Earth,

00:52:31 therefore it’s, you’re part of the causal chain of that.

00:52:34 And that might be true,

00:52:35 but if I can show how I’m able to do it

00:52:38 with very little cheating

00:52:40 or very little information inputs,

00:52:42 just creating like a model planet.

00:52:44 Some description and watching it, watching life emerge,

00:52:48 then I think that we will be even to persuade

00:52:51 even the hardest critic that it’s possible.

00:52:55 Now, with regards to the Fermi paradox,

00:52:57 I think that we might crush that with the JWST.

00:53:01 It’s basically, if I recall correctly,

00:53:03 the mirror is about 10 times the size of the Hubble

00:53:06 that we’re gonna be able to do spectroscopy,

00:53:09 look at colors of exoplanets, I think, not brilliantly,

00:53:12 but we’ll be able to start to classify them.

00:53:15 And we’ll start to get a real feel

00:53:18 for what’s going on in the universe on these exoplanets.

00:53:21 Cause it’s only in the last few decades, I think,

00:53:25 maybe even last decade that we even

00:53:30 came to recognize that exoplanets even are common.

00:53:33 And I think that that gives us a lot of optimism

00:53:36 that life is gonna be out there.

00:53:38 But I think we have to start framing,

00:53:40 we have to start preparing the fact

00:53:44 that biology is only one solution.

00:53:46 I can tell you with confidence that biology on Earth

00:53:50 does not exist anywhere else in the universe.

00:53:52 We are absolutely unique.

00:53:54 Well, okay, I love the confidence,

00:53:56 but where does that confidence come from?

00:54:02 Chemistry, like how many options does chemistry really have?

00:54:07 Many, that’s the point.

00:54:08 And the thing is, this is where the origin of life scam

00:54:11 comes in, is that people don’t quite count,

00:54:15 they don’t count the numbers.

00:54:16 So if biology as you find on Earth is common everywhere,

00:54:19 then there’s something really weird going on

00:54:21 that basically written in the quantum mechanics,

00:54:23 there’s some kind of these bonds must form over these bonds

00:54:26 and this catalyst must form over this catalyst

00:54:28 when they’re all quite equal.

00:54:30 Life is contingent.

00:54:31 The origin of life on Earth was contingent

00:54:34 upon the chemistry available at the origin of life on Earth.

00:54:38 So that means if we want to find other Earth like worlds,

00:54:43 we look for the same kind of rocky world.

00:54:45 We might look in the same zone as Earth

00:54:47 and we might expect reasonably

00:54:50 to find biological like stuff going on.

00:54:53 That would be a reasonable hypothesis,

00:54:55 but it won’t be the same, it can’t be.

00:54:57 It’s like saying, I don’t believe in magic.

00:55:00 That’s why I’m sure.

00:55:02 I just don’t believe in magic.

00:55:03 I believe in statistics and I can do experiments.

00:55:06 And so I won’t get the same, exactly the same sequence

00:55:09 of events, I’ll get something different.

00:55:11 And so there is TikTok elsewhere in the universe,

00:55:14 but it’s not the same as our TikTok, right?

00:55:16 That’s what I mean.

00:55:17 Which aspect of it is not the same?

00:55:20 Well, I just think, so what is TikTok?

00:55:23 TikTok is a social media where people upload videos, right?

00:55:27 Of silly videos.

00:55:28 So I guess there might be.

00:55:29 Well, there’s humor, there’s attention,

00:55:31 there’s the ability to process,

00:55:33 there’s ability for intelligent organisms

00:55:35 to collaborate on ideas and find human ideas

00:55:38 and play with those ideas, make them viral, memes.

00:55:43 Humor seems to be kind of fundamental

00:55:45 to the human experience.

00:55:46 And I think that that’s a really interesting question

00:55:48 we can ask, is humor a fundamental thing in the universe?

00:55:52 I think maybe it will be, right?

00:55:53 In terms of, you think about in a game theoretic sense,

00:55:56 humor, the emergence of humor serves a role

00:56:00 in our game engine.

00:56:01 And so if selection is fundamental in the universe,

00:56:05 so is humor.

00:56:06 Well, I actually don’t know exactly

00:56:10 what role humor serves.

00:56:12 Maybe it’s like, from a chemical perspective,

00:56:15 it’s like a catalyst for,

00:56:20 I guess it’s for several purposes.

00:56:21 One is the catalyst for spreading ideas on the internet.

00:56:23 That’s modern humor.

00:56:25 But humor is also a good way to deal

00:56:28 with the difficulty of life.

00:56:30 It’s a kind of valve, release valve for suffering.

00:56:35 Throughout human history, life has been really hard.

00:56:39 And for the people that I’ve known in my life

00:56:41 who’ve lived through some really difficult things,

00:56:44 humor is part of how they deal with that.

00:56:47 It’s usually dark humor.

00:56:49 But yeah, it’s interesting.

00:56:51 I don’t know exactly what’s the more mathematically

00:56:56 general way to formulate what the hell is humor.

00:56:58 What humor does it serve?

00:57:01 But I still, we’re kind of joking here,

00:57:03 but it’s a counterintuitive idea to me

00:57:09 to think that life elsewhere in the universe

00:57:14 is very different than life on Earth.

00:57:17 And also, like all of each instantiation of life

00:57:23 is likely very different from each other.

00:57:26 Yeah, like maybe there’s a few clusters of similar life,

00:57:30 but it’s much more likely is what you’re saying.

00:57:34 To me, it’s a kind of novel thought.

00:57:36 I’m not sure what to do with it.

00:57:37 But you’re saying that it’s more common

00:57:40 to be a weird outcast in the full spectrum of life

00:57:44 than it is to be in some usual cluster.

00:57:48 So every instantiation of a kind of chemistry

00:57:51 that results in complexity that’s autonomous

00:57:53 and self replicating however the hell you define life,

00:57:56 that is going to be very different every time.

00:57:59 I don’t know.

00:58:01 It feels like a selection is a fundamental

00:58:04 kind of directed force in the universe.

00:58:07 Won’t selection result in a few pockets

00:58:11 of interesting complexities?

00:58:13 I mean, yeah, if we ran Earth over again,

00:58:19 over and over and over,

00:58:20 you’re saying it’s going to come up with,

00:58:23 there’s not going to be elephants every time?

00:58:26 Yeah, I don’t think so.

00:58:27 I think that there will be similarities.

00:58:30 And I think we don’t know enough

00:58:32 about how selection globally works.

00:58:37 But it might be that the emergence of elephants

00:58:42 was wired into the history of Earth in some way,

00:58:44 like the gravitational force, how evolution was going,

00:58:47 Cambrian explosions, blah, blah, blah,

00:58:49 the emergence of mammals.

00:58:50 But I just don’t know enough about the contingency,

00:58:53 the variability.

00:58:54 All I do know is you count the number of bits

00:58:57 of information required to make an elephant

00:59:00 and think about the causal chain

00:59:03 that provide the lineage of elephants

00:59:05 going all the way back to Luca,

00:59:07 there’s a huge scope for divergence.

00:59:10 Yeah, but just like you said, with chemistry and selection,

00:59:15 the things that result in self replicating chemistry

00:59:22 and self replicating organisms,

00:59:26 those are extremely unlikely, as you’re saying.

00:59:30 But once they’re successful, they multiply.

00:59:33 So it might be a tiny subset of all things

00:59:37 that are possible in the universe, chemically speaking,

00:59:40 it might be a very tiny subset

00:59:41 is actually successful at creating elephants.

00:59:44 Or elephant like or slash human like creatures.

00:59:48 Well, there’s two different questions here.

00:59:48 The first one, if we were to reset Earth and to start again.

00:59:52 The different phases, sorry to keep interrupting.

00:59:54 Yeah, no, if we restart Earth and start again,

00:59:56 say we could go back to the beginning

00:59:58 and do the experiment or have a number of Earths,

01:00:00 how similar would biology be?

01:00:02 I would say that there would be broad similarities,

01:00:06 but the emergence of mammals is not a given

01:00:09 unless we’re gonna throw an asteroid at each planet

01:00:11 at each time and try and faithfully reproduce what happened.

01:00:15 Then there’s the other thing about

01:00:17 when you go to another Earth like planet elsewhere,

01:00:20 maybe there’s a different ratio, particular elements,

01:00:22 maybe the bombardment at the beginning of the planet

01:00:27 was quicker or longer than Earth.

01:00:30 And I just don’t have enough information there.

01:00:32 What I do know is that the complexity of the story of life

01:00:37 on Earth gives us lots of scope for variation.

01:00:42 And I just don’t think it’s a reasonable

01:00:44 mathematical assumption to think that life on Earth

01:00:48 that happened again would be same as what we have now.

01:00:51 Okay, but you’ve also extended that to say

01:00:54 that we might, as an explanation for the Fermi paradox,

01:00:58 that that means we’re not able to interact with them.

01:01:02 Or that’s an explanation for why we haven’t at scale

01:01:06 heard from aliens is they’re different than us.

01:01:10 We’ve only been looking for, say, 70, 80 years.

01:01:13 So I think that the reason we have not found aliens yet

01:01:17 is that we haven’t worked out what life is.

01:01:20 No, but the aliens have worked that out, surely.

01:01:25 Statistically speaking, there must be a large number

01:01:29 of aliens that are way ahead of us

01:01:31 on this whole life question.

01:01:33 Unless there’s something about this stage

01:01:37 of intellectual evolution that often quickly results

01:01:40 in nuclear war and destroys itself.

01:01:42 Like there’s something in this process

01:01:48 that eventually, I don’t know, crystallizes the complexity

01:01:52 and it stops, either dies or stops developing.

01:01:55 But most likely, they already figured it out.

01:01:58 And why aren’t they contacting us?

01:01:59 Is it some grad student somewhere?

01:02:03 Wants to study a new green planet?

01:02:06 Maybe they have.

01:02:07 I mean, I don’t have a coherent answer to your question,

01:02:12 other than to say that if there are other aliens out there

01:02:15 and they’re far more advanced,

01:02:17 they might be in contact with each other.

01:02:19 And they might also, we might be at a point

01:02:22 where what I’m saying quite critically

01:02:24 is it takes two to talk, right?

01:02:26 So the aliens might be there.

01:02:28 But if we don’t have the ability to recognize them

01:02:31 and talk to them, then the aliens aren’t going

01:02:33 to want to talk to us.

01:02:36 And I think that’s a critical point

01:02:37 that probably if that’s a filter,

01:02:42 there needs to be an ability for one

01:02:44 to communicate with the other.

01:02:45 And we need to know what life is before we do that.

01:02:48 So we haven’t qualified to even join the club

01:02:50 to have a talk.

01:02:51 Well, I think they still wanna teach us how to talk, right?

01:02:54 But my worry is that, or I think they would wanna teach us

01:02:59 how to talk like you do when you meet it.

01:03:04 Like when you even meet, I was gonna say child,

01:03:07 but that’s a human species.

01:03:09 I mean like ant.

01:03:12 You want to try to communicate with them

01:03:15 through whatever devices you can,

01:03:17 given what an ant is like.

01:03:19 I just, I worry mostly about that humans

01:03:21 are just too close minded or don’t have the right tools.

01:03:25 No, I’m gonna push back on this quite significantly.

01:03:27 I would say, because we don’t understand what life is

01:03:30 and because we don’t understand

01:03:32 how life emerged in the universe,

01:03:34 we don’t understand the physics

01:03:36 that gave rise to life yet.

01:03:38 That means our fundamental description,

01:03:40 I’m way out of my pay grade, even further out.

01:03:43 But I’ll say it anyway,

01:03:44 because I think it’s a fun.

01:03:44 You don’t get paid much anyway, as you said earlier.

01:03:47 So I would say that we,

01:03:50 because we don’t understand the universe yet,

01:03:52 we do not understand how the universe spat out life.

01:03:56 And we don’t know what life is.

01:03:57 And I think that until we understand that,

01:03:59 it is gonna limit our ability to even,

01:04:02 we don’t qualify to talk to the aliens.

01:04:05 So I’m gonna say that they might be there,

01:04:08 but we just, I’m not gonna say that I believe

01:04:10 in interdimensional aliens being present in this room.

01:04:12 Yeah, but I think you’re just being self critical,

01:04:14 like we don’t qualify.

01:04:15 I think the fact that we don’t qualify qualifies us.

01:04:19 We’re interesting in our innocence.

01:04:22 No, I’m saying that because we don’t understand

01:04:25 causal chains and the way that information

01:04:27 is propagated in the universe.

01:04:29 And we don’t understand what replication is yet.

01:04:31 And we don’t understand how life emerged.

01:04:35 I think that we would not recognize aliens.

01:04:38 And if someone doesn’t recognize you,

01:04:43 you wouldn’t go and talk to it.

01:04:44 You don’t go and talk to ants.

01:04:46 You don’t go and talk to birds

01:04:48 or maybe some birds you do, right?

01:04:49 Cause you can, there’s just enough cognition.

01:04:52 So I’m saying because we don’t have enough,

01:04:55 our cognitive abilities are not yet where they need to be.

01:04:58 We probably haven’t been communicating with them.

01:05:00 So you don’t agree with the dating strategy

01:05:02 of playing hard to get?

01:05:04 Cause us humans, that seems to attract us.

01:05:07 Within a species, that’s fine.

01:05:09 But I think we don’t actually have abstraction.

01:05:11 No, actually I think in this talk, in this conversation,

01:05:15 you’ve helped me crystallize something

01:05:16 that I think has been troubling me for a long time

01:05:19 with the thermi paradox.

01:05:20 I’m pretty sure that a reasonable avenue

01:05:23 is to say that you would not go and talk to your cat

01:05:28 about calculus, right?

01:05:31 But I would still pet it.

01:05:32 Sure, but I’m not talking about petting a cat.

01:05:34 The analogy is that the aliens are not going to talk to us

01:05:37 because we, and I’m using calculus as analogy

01:05:40 for abstraction because we lack the layer,

01:05:44 the fundamental layer of understanding what life is

01:05:47 and what the universe is in our reality

01:05:50 that it would be so counterproductive

01:05:52 interacting with intelligent alien species

01:05:55 that it would cause more angst for human race.

01:05:59 They don’t care.

01:06:00 Okay, they gotta be self interested.

01:06:03 So they’ll probably, they more care about

01:06:05 is it interesting for them?

01:06:06 Maybe they, I mean, surely there’s a way

01:06:10 to pet the cat in this analogy

01:06:16 because even if we lack complete understanding,

01:06:20 it must be a very frustrating experience

01:06:23 for other kinds of intelligence to communicate with us.

01:06:26 Still, there must be a way to interact with us.

01:06:29 Well.

01:06:30 Like perturb the system in interesting ways

01:06:34 to see what these creatures do.

01:06:35 We might actually find the answer.

01:06:37 I mean, again, out of my pay grade,

01:06:39 in a simulation of the Earth,

01:06:42 let’s say a simulation where we allow

01:06:44 an intelligent AI to emerge, right?

01:06:47 And that AI, we then give it the objective

01:06:52 is to be curious, interact with other intelligence

01:06:54 in its universe.

01:06:56 And then we might find the parameters required

01:07:00 for that AI to walk with.

01:07:02 And I think you’ll find if the AI will not talk

01:07:05 to other AIs that don’t share the ability

01:07:08 to abstract at the level of the AI

01:07:10 because it’s just a cat and are you gonna travel

01:07:13 20 light years to go and pet a cat?

01:07:15 So not because of the inability to do so,

01:07:19 but because of like boredom.

01:07:20 It’s more interested, it will start talking to,

01:07:23 it will spend most, it will spend a majority

01:07:28 of its time talking to other AI systems

01:07:30 that can at least somewhat understand

01:07:32 and it’s much more fun.

01:07:33 It’s a bit like, do we know that plants are conscious?

01:07:34 Well, plants are unconscious in the way we typically think,

01:07:36 but we don’t talk to them.

01:07:37 They could be, right?

01:07:38 Yeah, but there’s a lot of people on Earth

01:07:40 who like gardening.

01:07:41 There’s always going to be a weird.

01:07:42 They’re not talking, they’re just gardening.

01:07:44 Okay, well, you’re not romantic enough

01:07:46 to see gardening as a way of communication

01:07:48 between humans and plants.

01:07:48 Oh, okay, you’ve got me there.

01:07:50 But there’s ways, there’s always going to be

01:07:53 the people who are curious.

01:07:55 Jane Goodall who lives with the chimps, right?

01:07:58 There’s always going to be curious intelligent species

01:08:00 that visit the weird Earth planet and try to interact.

01:08:06 I mean, it’s a, yeah, I think it’s a super cool idea

01:08:10 that you’re expressing.

01:08:11 I just kind of have a sense.

01:08:13 Maybe it’s a hope that there’s always going to be

01:08:16 a desire to interact even with those

01:08:18 that can’t possibly understand the depth

01:08:21 of what you understand.

01:08:22 So I’m with you, so I want to be as positive as you

01:08:25 that aliens do exist and we will interact with them.

01:08:29 What I’m trying to do is to give you

01:08:30 a reasonable hypothesis why we haven’t yet.

01:08:35 Yeah.

01:08:35 And also something to strive for to be able to do that.

01:08:38 I mean, you know, there is the other view

01:08:41 that the universe is just too big

01:08:43 and life is just too rare.

01:08:46 But I want to come up with an alternative explanation

01:08:49 which I think is reasonable and not being philosophically

01:08:53 and scientifically thought out, which is this,

01:08:55 if you can’t actually communicate with the object,

01:08:59 the thing competently, you don’t even know it’s there,

01:09:03 then there’s no point yet.

01:09:05 See, I disagree with that, but I’m totally aligned

01:09:07 with your hopeful vision, which is like,

01:09:09 we need to understand the origin of life.

01:09:11 It will help us engineer life.

01:09:13 It will help us engineer intelligent life through perhaps

01:09:16 on the computer side through simulation

01:09:18 and explore all the ways that life emerges.

01:09:20 And that will allow us to, I think the fundamental reason

01:09:24 we don’t see overwhelming amounts of life

01:09:27 is I actually believe aliens,

01:09:31 of course, these are all just kind of open minded beliefs.

01:09:35 It’s difficult to know for sure about any of this,

01:09:37 but I think there’s a lot of alien civilizations

01:09:40 which are actively communicating with us and we’re too dumb.

01:09:45 We don’t have the right tools to see it.

01:09:47 That’s what I’m saying.

01:09:48 No, but maybe I misinterpreted you,

01:09:51 but I interpreted you to say they kind of tried a few times

01:09:56 and they’re like, oh God.

01:09:57 No, no, no, what I’m saying is we, so this goes two ways.

01:10:00 Yeah, I agree with you.

01:10:01 There could be information out there,

01:10:03 but just put in such a way

01:10:05 that we just don’t understand it yet.

01:10:06 Right.

01:10:07 So sorry if I didn’t make that clear.

01:10:09 I mean, it’s not just, I don’t think we,

01:10:11 I think we qualify as soon as we can decode their signal.

01:10:15 Right, so when you say qualify, got it, got it.

01:10:17 So you mean, we’re just not smart enough,

01:10:19 the word qualify was throwing me off.

01:10:21 So we’re not smart enough to do,

01:10:22 it’s like we just need to get smarter.

01:10:25 And there’s a lot of people who believe,

01:10:27 let me get your opinion on this, about UFO sightings.

01:10:31 So sightings of weird phenomena

01:10:36 that, you know, what does UFO mean?

01:10:41 It means it’s a flying object

01:10:45 and it’s not identified clearly at the time of sighting.

01:10:50 That’s what UFO means.

01:10:51 So it could be a physics phenomena,

01:10:53 it could be ball lightning,

01:10:54 it could be all kinds of fascinating.

01:10:56 I was always fascinated with ball lightning as a,

01:11:00 like the fact that there could be physical phenomena

01:11:03 in this world that are observable by the human eye.

01:11:06 Of course, all physical phenomena generally are fascinating

01:11:09 that really smart people can’t explain.

01:11:14 I love that.

01:11:15 Cause it’s like, wait a minute,

01:11:16 especially if you can replicate it,

01:11:18 it’s like, wait a minute, how does this happen?

01:11:20 That’s like the precursor to giant discoveries

01:11:23 in chemistry and biology and physics and so on.

01:11:25 But it sucks when those events are super rare, right?

01:11:29 Physically, like ball lightning.

01:11:32 So that’s out there.

01:11:34 And then of course that phenomena

01:11:36 could have other interpretations

01:11:37 that don’t have to do with the physics of chemistry,

01:11:40 the biology of earth.

01:11:42 It could have to do

01:11:43 with more extraterrestrial explanations

01:11:46 that in large part, thanks to Hollywood and movies

01:11:50 and all those kinds of things,

01:11:51 captivates the imaginations of millions of people.

01:11:56 But just because it’s science fiction

01:11:58 that captivates the imagination of people,

01:12:00 it doesn’t mean that some of those sightings,

01:12:03 all it takes is one.

01:12:05 One of those sightings is actually a sign

01:12:09 that it’s extraterrestrial intelligence,

01:12:11 that it’s object that’s not of this particular world.

01:12:17 Do you think there’s a chance that that’s the case?

01:12:18 What do you make, especially the pilot sightings,

01:12:21 what do you make of those?

01:12:23 So I agree with there’s a chance.

01:12:26 There’s always a chance.

01:12:26 Any good scientist would have to,

01:12:29 or observationist would have to,

01:12:31 I want to see if aliens exist come to earth.

01:12:36 What I know about the universe

01:12:37 is I think it’s unlikely right now

01:12:40 that there are aliens visiting us, but not impossible.

01:12:44 I think the releases, the dramatization

01:12:48 that’s been happening politically

01:12:49 saying we’re gonna release all this information,

01:12:51 this classified information.

01:12:54 I was kind of disappointed

01:12:55 because it was just very poor material.

01:13:02 And right now, the ability to capture high resolution video,

01:13:08 everybody is carrying around

01:13:10 with them an incredible video device now.

01:13:12 And we haven’t got more compelling data.

01:13:18 And so that we’ve just seeing grainy pictures,

01:13:22 a lot of hearsay, instrument kind of malfunctions

01:13:26 and whatnot.

01:13:27 And so I think on balance, I think it’s extremely unlikely,

01:13:30 but I think something really interesting is happening.

01:13:34 And then also during the pandemic, right?

01:13:36 We’ve all been locked down.

01:13:37 We all want to have,

01:13:38 we want to, our imaginations are running riot.

01:13:42 And I think that the,

01:13:44 I don’t think that the information out there

01:13:46 has convinced me there are any,

01:13:47 anything interesting on the UFO side.

01:13:49 But what it has made me very interested about

01:13:51 is how humanity is opening up its mind to ponder aliens

01:13:57 and the mystery of our universe.

01:14:00 And so I don’t want to dissuade people

01:14:02 from having those thoughts and say, you’re stupid

01:14:04 and look at that, it’s clearly incorrect.

01:14:06 That’s not right.

01:14:06 That’s not fair.

01:14:07 What I would say is that I lack sufficient data,

01:14:10 replicated observations to make me go,

01:14:14 oh, I’m gonna take this seriously,

01:14:16 but I’m really interested by the fact

01:14:18 that there is this great deal of interest.

01:14:21 And I think that it drives me

01:14:24 to maybe want to make an artificial life form even more

01:14:28 and to help NASA and the Air Force

01:14:31 and whoever go and look for things even more,

01:14:33 because I think humanity wants to know what’s out there.

01:14:36 There’s this yearning, isn’t there?

01:14:38 Yeah, but I see, I almost,

01:14:43 depending on the day, I sometimes agree with you,

01:14:45 but with the thing you just said,

01:14:47 but one of the disappointing things to me

01:14:52 about the sightings, I still hold the belief

01:14:56 that a nonzero number of them

01:15:02 is an indication of something very interesting.

01:15:06 So I don’t side with the people who say

01:15:09 everything can be explained

01:15:10 with sensor artifacts kind of thing.

01:15:13 Yeah, I agree with you.

01:15:14 I didn’t say that either.

01:15:15 I would say I just don’t have enough data.

01:15:17 But the thing I want to push back on is the statement

01:15:20 that everybody has a high definition camera.

01:15:23 One of the disappointing things to me

01:15:24 about the report that the government released,

01:15:27 but in general, just having worked with government,

01:15:29 having worked with people all over

01:15:32 is how incompetent we are.

01:15:36 Like if you look at the response to the pandemic,

01:15:38 how incompetent we are in the face of great challenges

01:15:44 without great leadership.

01:15:46 How incompetent we are in the face

01:15:47 of the great mysteries before us without great leadership.

01:15:51 And I just think it’s actually,

01:15:54 the fact that there’s a lot of high definition cameras

01:15:56 is not enough to capture the full richness of weird,

01:16:01 of the mysterious phenomena out there

01:16:03 of which extraterrestrial intelligence visiting Earth

01:16:07 could be one.

01:16:08 I don’t think we have,

01:16:09 I don’t think everybody having a smartphone

01:16:12 in their pocket is enough.

01:16:14 I think that allows for TikTok videos.

01:16:17 I don’t think it allows for the capture

01:16:19 of even interesting, relatively rare human events.

01:16:23 That’s not that common.

01:16:25 It’s rare to have been the right moment in the right time

01:16:28 to be able to capture the thing.

01:16:30 I agree, I agree.

01:16:31 Let me rephrase what I think on this.

01:16:33 I haven’t seen enough information.

01:16:35 I haven’t really actively sorted out.

01:16:37 I must admit, but I’m with you

01:16:40 and I love the idea of anomaly detection

01:16:42 in chemistry in particular, right?

01:16:44 I want to make anomalies, sorry,

01:16:45 or not necessarily make anomalies.

01:16:47 I want to understand an anomaly.

01:16:50 Let me give you two from chemistry,

01:16:53 which are really quite interesting.

01:16:56 Phlogiston, going way back,

01:16:59 where people said there’s this thing called phlogiston.

01:17:02 And for ages, the alchemists got really this kind of,

01:17:05 that fire is the thing.

01:17:09 That’s one.

01:17:09 And then we determined that phlogiston

01:17:11 wasn’t what we thought it is.

01:17:13 Let’s go to physics, the ether.

01:17:15 The ether’s a hard one

01:17:16 because I think actually the ether might exist.

01:17:18 And I’ll tell you what I think the ether is later.

01:17:24 Can you explain the ether?

01:17:25 So as the vacuum,

01:17:26 so the light traveling through the ether in the vacuum,

01:17:28 there is some thing that we call the ether

01:17:30 that basically mediates the movement of light, say.

01:17:34 And I think that…

01:17:36 And then the other one is cold fusion,

01:17:38 which is more of a…

01:17:39 So a few years ago,

01:17:40 people observed that when they did some electrochemistry,

01:17:44 when they were splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen,

01:17:48 that you got more energy out than you put in.

01:17:50 And people got excited

01:17:51 and they thought that this was a nuclear reaction.

01:17:54 And in the end, it was kind of discredited

01:17:57 because you didn’t detect neutrons and all this stuff.

01:17:59 But I’m pretty sure…

01:18:02 I’m a chemist.

01:18:03 I’m telling you this on your podcast, but why not?

01:18:06 I’m pretty sure there’s interesting

01:18:07 electrochemical phenomena

01:18:08 that’s not completely bottomed out yet,

01:18:09 that there is something there.

01:18:11 However, we lack the technology and the experimental design.

01:18:15 So all I’m saying in your response about aliens

01:18:18 is we lack the experimental design

01:18:20 to really capture these anomalies.

01:18:22 And we are encircling the planet

01:18:25 with many more detection systems.

01:18:27 We’ve got satellites everywhere.

01:18:28 So there is, I do hope

01:18:30 that we are gonna discover more anomalies.

01:18:32 And remember that the solar system

01:18:35 isn’t just static in space,

01:18:37 it’s moving through the universe.

01:18:39 So there’s just more and more chance.

01:18:40 I’m not what with Avi Loeb.

01:18:42 He’s generating all sorts of kind of a cult,

01:18:46 I would say, with this, but I’m not against him.

01:18:50 I think there is a finite chance

01:18:52 if there are aliens in the universe

01:18:53 that we’re gonna happen upon them

01:18:54 because we’re moving through the universe.

01:18:56 What’s the nature of the following that Avi Loeb has?

01:18:59 He’s doubling down more and more and more

01:19:01 and say there are aliens,

01:19:02 interdimensional aliens and everything else, right?

01:19:04 He’s gone from space junk accelerating out of

01:19:06 to interdimensional stuff in a very short space of time.

01:19:11 I see.

01:19:12 He’s obviously bored.

01:19:15 Or he wants to tap into the psyche and understand.

01:19:18 And he’s playfully kind of trying to interact

01:19:21 with society and his peers to say,

01:19:22 stop saying it’s not possible.

01:19:26 Which I agree with, we shouldn’t do that.

01:19:28 But we should frame it statistically

01:19:30 in the same way we should frame everything

01:19:32 as good scientists, statistically.

01:19:34 Yeah, good scientists.

01:19:40 Recently, the idea of good scientists is,

01:19:45 I take quite skeptically.

01:19:47 I’ve been listening to a lot of scientists

01:19:49 tell me about what is good science.

01:19:52 That makes me sad.

01:19:53 Because you’ve been interviewing

01:19:54 what I would consider a lot of really good scientists.

01:19:56 No, that’s true.

01:19:57 A lot of great thinkers.

01:19:58 But that’s exactly right.

01:19:59 And most of the people I talk to

01:20:01 are incredible human beings.

01:20:03 But there’s a humility that’s required.

01:20:05 Science is not, science cannot be dogmatism.

01:20:10 Sure, I agree.

01:20:11 I mean, authority, like a PhD does not give you authority.

01:20:17 A lifelong pursuit of a particular task

01:20:19 does not give you authority.

01:20:21 You’re just as lost in clues as everybody else.

01:20:24 But you’re more curious and more stubborn.

01:20:27 So that’s a nice quality to have.

01:20:29 But overall, just using the word science and statistics

01:20:37 can often, as you know, kind of become a catalyst

01:20:43 for dismissing new ideas, out of the box ideas, wild ideas,

01:20:49 all that kind of stuff.

01:20:50 Well, yes and no.

01:20:52 I think that, so I like to,

01:20:57 some people find me extremely annoying in science

01:20:59 because I’m basically, I’m quite rude and disruptive.

01:21:04 Not in a rude, you know,

01:21:05 some up to people and say they’re ugly or stupid

01:21:07 or anything like that.

01:21:08 I just say, you know, you’re wrong.

01:21:12 Or why do you think this?

01:21:13 And something, a gift I got given by society

01:21:16 when I was very young,

01:21:17 because I was in the learning difficulties class at school

01:21:20 is I was told I was stupid.

01:21:22 And so I know I’m stupid,

01:21:24 but I always wanted to be smart, right?

01:21:26 I remember going to school going,

01:21:29 maybe today they’re going to tell me

01:21:30 I’m not as stupid as I was yesterday.

01:21:32 And I was always disappointed, always.

01:21:34 And so when I went into academia and everyone says,

01:21:36 you’re wrong, I was like, join the queue.

01:21:39 Yeah.

01:21:40 Because it allowed me to walk through the wall.

01:21:43 So I think that people like to always imagine science

01:21:46 as a bit like living in a Japanese house,

01:21:48 the paper walls, and everyone sits in their room.

01:21:52 And I annoy people because I walk straight through the wall.

01:21:54 Not because, why should I be a chemist

01:21:56 and not a mathematician?

01:21:58 Why should I be a mathematician and not a computer scientist?

01:22:00 Because if the problem requires us

01:22:02 to walk through those walls,

01:22:05 but I like walking through the walls.

01:22:08 But as long, then I have to put up,

01:22:11 you know, I have to do good science.

01:22:12 I have to win the people in those rooms

01:22:15 across by good science,

01:22:17 by taking their criticisms and addressing them head on.

01:22:21 And I think we must do that.

01:22:22 And I think that I try and do that in my own way.

01:22:25 And I kind of love walking through the walls.

01:22:29 And it gives me, it’s difficult for me personally.

01:22:33 It’s quite painful,

01:22:35 but it always leads to a deeper understanding

01:22:38 of the people I’m with.

01:22:39 In particular, you know, the arguments I have

01:22:41 with all sorts of interesting minds,

01:22:43 because I want to solve the problem,

01:22:45 or I want to understand more about why I exist.

01:22:49 You know, that’s it really.

01:22:52 And I think we have to not dismiss science

01:22:55 on that basis.

01:22:55 I think we can work with science.

01:22:58 No, science is beautiful,

01:22:59 but humans with egos and all those kinds of things

01:23:03 can sometimes misuse good things,

01:23:08 like social justice,

01:23:10 like all ideas we’re all aspire to misuse

01:23:14 these beautiful ideas to manipulate people,

01:23:18 to all those kinds of things.

01:23:20 Sure.

01:23:20 And that’s, there’s assholes in every space

01:23:24 and walk of life, including science.

01:23:26 Yeah, yeah, yeah, of course.

01:23:27 And those are no good.

01:23:28 But yes, you’re right.

01:23:29 The scientific method has proven to be quite useful.

01:23:34 That said, for difficult questions,

01:23:36 for difficult explanations for rare phenomena,

01:23:42 you have to walk cautiously.

01:23:47 Because the scientific method,

01:23:50 when you totally don’t understand something,

01:23:53 and it’s rare, and you can’t replicate it,

01:23:55 doesn’t quite apply.

01:23:57 Yeah, yeah, yeah, that’s it.

01:23:58 I agree with you.

01:23:59 The challenge is to not dismiss the anomaly

01:24:02 because you can’t replicate it.

01:24:03 I mean, we can talk about this.

01:24:05 This is something I realized

01:24:06 when we were developing assembly theory.

01:24:10 People thinking that the track they’re on

01:24:13 is so dogmatic, but there is this thing that they see,

01:24:18 but they don’t see.

01:24:19 And it takes a bit of time

01:24:20 and you just have to keep reframing it.

01:24:21 And my approach is to say, well, why can’t this be right?

01:24:25 Why must we accept that RNA is the only way into life?

01:24:29 I mean, who said?

01:24:30 Does RNA have a special class of information

01:24:35 that’s encoded in the universe?

01:24:37 No, of course it doesn’t, right?

01:24:38 RNA is not a special molecule

01:24:41 in the space of all the other molecules.

01:24:42 But it’s so elegant and simple

01:24:44 and it works so well for the evolutionary process

01:24:46 that we kind of use that as an intuition

01:24:48 to explain that that must be the only way to have life.

01:24:51 Sure.

01:24:53 But you mentioned assembly theory.

01:24:55 Well, first let me pause, bathroom break, needed?

01:24:57 Yeah, let’s take two minutes.

01:24:59 We took a quick break and offline,

01:25:02 you mentioned to me that you have a lab in your home.

01:25:08 And then I said that you’re basically Rick

01:25:10 from Rick and Morty,

01:25:11 which is something I’ve been thinking

01:25:13 this whole conversation.

01:25:15 And then you say that there’s a glowing pickle

01:25:19 that you used something involving cold plasma, I believe.

01:25:23 I don’t know, but can you explain

01:25:24 the glowing pickle situation?

01:25:31 And is there many, arbitrarily many versions of you

01:25:34 in alternate dimensions that you’re aware of?

01:25:37 I tried to make an electrochemical memory at home

01:25:41 using a pickle and the only way I could get

01:25:45 any traction with it was actually by plugging it

01:25:49 into a very high voltage alternating current

01:25:51 and then putting in a couple of electrodes.

01:25:53 But my kids weren’t impressed.

01:25:54 They’re not impressed with anything I do,

01:25:56 any experiments I do at home.

01:25:57 I think it’s quite funny.

01:25:58 But you connected a pickle to some electrode.

01:26:01 240 volts, yeah, AC.

01:26:03 And then had a couple of electrodes on it.

01:26:04 So what happens is a pickle,

01:26:07 this is a classic thing you do.

01:26:09 I mean, I shouldn’t, pranks you do,

01:26:11 you put a pickle into the mains

01:26:13 and just leave it, run away and leave it.

01:26:15 And what happens is it starts to decompose.

01:26:17 It heats up and then explodes

01:26:19 because the water turns to steam

01:26:20 and it just violently explodes.

01:26:22 But I wondered if I could cause the iron,

01:26:25 sodium, potassium ions in the pickle to migrate.

01:26:27 It’d been in a jar, right?

01:26:28 So it’d been in a brine.

01:26:31 That was, yeah, that was not my best experiment.

01:26:34 So I’ve done far better experiments in my lab at home.

01:26:36 At that time it was a failed experiment,

01:26:38 but you never know, it could,

01:26:41 every experiment is a successful experiment

01:26:44 if you stick with it long enough.

01:26:46 Well, I mean, I get, I got kicked out of my own lab

01:26:48 by my research team many years ago and for good reason.

01:26:50 I mean, my team is brilliant

01:26:51 and I used to go and just break things.

01:26:53 So what I do do at home

01:26:55 is I have a kind of electronics workshop

01:26:58 and I prototype experiments there.

01:27:01 Then I try and then I try and suggest to my team sometimes,

01:27:05 maybe we can try this thing.

01:27:07 And they would just say, oh,

01:27:08 wow, that’s not gonna work because of this.

01:27:10 And I’ll say, aha, but actually I’ve tried

01:27:12 and here’s some code and here’s some hardware.

01:27:14 Can we have a go?

01:27:15 So I’m doing that less and less now

01:27:17 as I get even more busy, but that’s quite fun

01:27:20 because they feel that we’re in the experiment together.

01:27:24 You do, in fact, brilliantly, just like Rick

01:27:28 from Rick and Morty, connect up chemistry with computation.

01:27:38 And when we say chemistry,

01:27:40 we don’t mean the simulation of chemistry,

01:27:45 a modeling of chemistry.

01:27:46 We mean chemistry in the physical space

01:27:49 as well as in the digital space, which is fascinating.

01:27:52 We’ll talk about that.

01:27:54 But first you mentioned assembly theory.

01:27:56 So we’ll stick on theory in these big ideas.

01:28:00 I would say revolutionary ideas,

01:28:03 this intersection between mathematics and philosophy.

01:28:07 What is assembly theory?

01:28:09 And generally speaking, how would we recognize life

01:28:13 if we saw it?

01:28:15 So assembly theory is a theory,

01:28:17 goes back a few years now in my struggle

01:28:19 for maybe almost 10 years

01:28:22 when I was going to origin of life conferences

01:28:24 and artificial life conferences,

01:28:25 where I thought that everybody was dancing

01:28:28 around the problem of what life is and what it does.

01:28:32 But I’ll tell you about what assembly theory is

01:28:34 because I think it’s easier.

01:28:35 So assembly theory literally says if you take an object,

01:28:39 any given object,

01:28:40 and you are able to break the object into parts very gently.

01:28:43 So just maybe let’s say take a piece

01:28:46 of very intricate Chinese porcelain

01:28:48 and you tap it just with a hammer or the nail at some point,

01:28:52 and it will fragment into many parts.

01:28:54 And if that object is able to fragment into many,

01:28:57 and you count those parts, the different parts,

01:29:00 so they’re unsymmetrical,

01:29:02 assembly theory says the larger the number of parts,

01:29:07 unsymmetrical parts that object has,

01:29:10 the more likely it is that object has been created

01:29:12 by an evolutionary or information process,

01:29:15 especially if that object is not one off,

01:29:18 you’ve got an abundance of them.

01:29:22 And that’s really important.

01:29:23 So because what I’m literally saying about the abundance,

01:29:26 if you have a one off object and you break it into parts

01:29:30 and it has lots of parts,

01:29:32 you’d say, well, that could be incredibly intricate

01:29:36 and complex, but it could be just random.

01:29:39 And I was troubled with this for years

01:29:41 because I saw in reality that assembly theory works.

01:29:44 But when I talked to very good

01:29:46 computational complexity computation lists,

01:29:49 algorithmic complexity people,

01:29:51 they said, you haven’t really done this properly.

01:29:53 You haven’t thought about it.

01:29:54 It’s like, this is the random problem.

01:29:57 And so I kept working this up

01:29:59 because I invented an assembly theory in chemistry,

01:30:03 first of all, with molecules.

01:30:05 And so the thought experiment was,

01:30:08 how complex does a molecule need to be when I find it

01:30:11 that it couldn’t possibly have risen by chance,

01:30:13 probabilistically.

01:30:15 And if I found this molecule,

01:30:16 able to detect it enough quantities in the same object,

01:30:18 like a machine, like a mass spectrometer.

01:30:20 So typically in a mass spectrometer,

01:30:22 you weigh the molecules in electric field.

01:30:24 You probably have to have all the order of 10,000

01:30:26 identical molecules to get a signal.

01:30:28 So 10,000 identical molecules that are complex.

01:30:32 What is the chance of them occurring by chance?

01:30:36 Well, we can do the math.

01:30:37 Let’s take a molecule like strychnine

01:30:39 or, yeah, so strychnine is a good molecule actually to take

01:30:44 or Viagra is a good molecule.

01:30:46 I made jokes about Viagra because it’s a complex molecule.

01:30:49 And one of my friends said, yeah,

01:30:50 if we find Viagra on Mars in detectable quantities,

01:30:53 we know something is up.

01:30:54 And yeah, but anyway, it’s a complex molecule.

01:31:00 So what you do is you take this molecule

01:31:01 in the mass spectrometer and you hit it with some electrons

01:31:03 or in electric field and it breaks apart.

01:31:06 And if the larger the number of different parts,

01:31:09 you know when it starts to get refreshed,

01:31:12 my idea was that that molecule could not be created

01:31:15 by chance, probabilistically.

01:31:17 So that was where assembly theory was born

01:31:20 in an experiment, in a mass spec experiment.

01:31:22 And I was thinking about this

01:31:24 because NASA is sending mass spectrometers to Mars,

01:31:26 to Titan, it’s gonna send them to Europa.

01:31:29 There’s gonna be a nuclear powered mass spectrometer

01:31:32 going to Titan.

01:31:33 I mean, this is the coolest experiment ever.

01:31:35 They’re not only sending a drone

01:31:37 that’s gonna fly around Titan,

01:31:38 it’s gonna be powered by a nuclear slug, a nuclear battery,

01:31:43 and it’s gonna have a mass spectrometer on it.

01:31:45 Is this already launched?

01:31:47 No, it’s Dragonfly

01:31:49 and it’s gonna be launched in a few years.

01:31:50 I think it got pushed a year because of the pandemic.

01:31:53 So I think it’s three or four years.

01:31:55 Dragonfly, nuclear Dragonfly is going to fly to Titan

01:32:00 and collect data about the composition

01:32:07 of the various chemicals on Titan.

01:32:09 Yeah, I’m trying to convince NASA.

01:32:11 I don’t know if I’ll be able to convince

01:32:12 the Dragonfly team that they should apply this approach,

01:32:16 but they will get data.

01:32:18 And depending on how good their mass spectrometer is.

01:32:20 But I had this thought experiment anyway,

01:32:22 and I did this thought experiment.

01:32:24 And for me, it seemed to work.

01:32:26 I turned the thought experiment into an algorithm

01:32:29 in assembly theory.

01:32:30 And I basically, assembly theory, if I take,

01:32:32 let’s just make it generic.

01:32:33 And so let’s just take the word abracadabra.

01:32:36 Say, can I, if you find the word,

01:32:38 so if you have a book with lots of words in it

01:32:41 and you find abracadabra one off,

01:32:42 and it’s a rap book that’s been written by,

01:32:45 in a random way, set of monkeys in a room.

01:32:48 And you’re on typewriters.

01:32:50 And you find one off abracadabra,

01:32:51 no big deal.

01:32:52 But if you find lots of recurrences of abracadabra,

01:32:55 well, that means something weird is going on.

01:32:57 But let’s think about the assembly number of abracadabra.

01:33:00 So abracadabra has a number of letters in it.

01:33:04 You can break it down.

01:33:05 So you just cut the letters up.

01:33:07 But when you actually reassemble abracadabra,

01:33:09 the minimum number of ways of organizing those letters.

01:33:12 So you’d have an A, a B, and keep going up.

01:33:18 When you cut abracadabra up into parts,

01:33:21 you can put it together again in seven steps.

01:33:24 So what does that mean?

01:33:24 That means if you basically don’t,

01:33:26 you’re allowed to reuse things

01:33:28 you make in a chain at the beginning.

01:33:30 That’s the memory of the universe,

01:33:32 the process that makes abracadabra.

01:33:35 And because of that causal chain,

01:33:36 you can then get to abracadabra

01:33:38 quicker than the number of letters

01:33:40 for having to specify only in seven.

01:33:43 So if you take that to a molecule

01:33:44 and you cut the molecule up into parts,

01:33:47 and you can, on the causal chain,

01:33:49 and you basically start with the atoms

01:33:51 and then bonds, and then you randomly add on those parts

01:33:54 to make the A, make the B, and keep going all the way up,

01:33:59 I found that literally, assembly theory

01:34:01 allows me to say how compressed a molecule is.

01:34:04 So when there’s some information in there.

01:34:07 And I realized assembly theory

01:34:09 isn’t just confined to molecular space.

01:34:13 It can apply to anything.

01:34:14 But let me finish the molecular argument.

01:34:16 So what I did is I had this theory.

01:34:18 I, with one of my students, we wrote an algorithm.

01:34:22 We basically took the 20 million molecules from a database

01:34:26 and we just calculate their assembly number.

01:34:28 And that’s the index.

01:34:29 Like basically, if I take a molecule

01:34:32 and I cut it up into bonds,

01:34:33 what is the minimum number of steps I need to take

01:34:36 to reform that molecule from atoms?

01:34:39 So reusability of previously formed things

01:34:42 is somehow a fundamental part of what it is.

01:34:43 Exactly, it’s like a memory in the universe, right?

01:34:46 I’m making lots of leaps here.

01:34:47 Like, it’s kind of weird.

01:34:48 I’m saying, right, there’s a process

01:34:50 that can form the A and the B and the C, let’s say.

01:34:53 And then because we’ve formed A and B before,

01:34:56 we can use A and B again with no extra cost except one unit.

01:35:00 So that’s the kind of what the chain of events.

01:35:02 And that’s how you think about memory here

01:35:04 when you say the universe,

01:35:05 when you talk about the universe

01:35:07 or life is the universe creating memory.

01:35:11 Exactly.

01:35:12 So we went through chemical space

01:35:15 and we looked at the assembly numbers.

01:35:16 We were able to classify it.

01:35:18 So, okay, let’s test it.

01:35:20 Let’s go.

01:35:21 So we’re able to take a whole bunch of molecules

01:35:23 and assign an assembly index to them, okay?

01:35:27 And it’s just a function of the number of bonds

01:35:30 in the molecule and how much symmetry.

01:35:32 So literally assembly theory is a measure

01:35:34 of how little symmetry a molecule has.

01:35:37 And so the more asymmetry, the more information,

01:35:40 the more weird it is,

01:35:41 like a Jackson Pollock of some description.

01:35:44 So I then went and did a load of experiments.

01:35:47 And I basically took those molecules,

01:35:49 I cut them up in the mass spec

01:35:51 and measured the number of peaks

01:35:52 without any knowledge of the molecule.

01:35:55 And we found the assembly number,

01:35:57 there was almost not quite a one to one correlation,

01:36:00 but almost because not all bonds are equal.

01:36:02 They have different energies.

01:36:03 I then did this using two other spectroscopic techniques,

01:36:07 NMR, nuclear magnetic resonance,

01:36:08 which uses radio frequency to basically jangle the molecules

01:36:11 and get a signature out.

01:36:13 And I also used infrared.

01:36:15 And infrared and NMR almost gave us a one to one correlation.

01:36:18 So what am I saying?

01:36:19 Saying by taking a molecule

01:36:21 and doing either infrared or NMR or mass spec,

01:36:26 I can work out how many parts there are in that molecule

01:36:30 and then put it on a scale.

01:36:32 And what we did in the next part of the work

01:36:35 is we took molecules randomly from the environment,

01:36:39 from outer space, from all around earth,

01:36:41 from the sea, from Antarctica,

01:36:45 and from fossils and so on.

01:36:47 And even NASA, because they didn’t believe us,

01:36:49 blinded some samples.

01:36:51 And we found that all these samples that came from biology

01:36:57 produced molecules that had a very high assembly number

01:37:00 above a threshold of about 15.

01:37:02 So basically all the stuff that came

01:37:05 from an ebiotic origin was low.

01:37:08 There was no complexity there.

01:37:10 So we suddenly realized that on earth at least,

01:37:12 there is a cutoff that natural phenomena

01:37:16 cannot produce molecules

01:37:17 that need more than 15 steps to make them.

01:37:21 So I realized that this is a way to make a scale of life,

01:37:25 a scale of technology as well.

01:37:27 And literally you could just go sniffing for molecules

01:37:30 off earth, on Titan, on Mars.

01:37:33 And when you find a molecule in the mass spectrometer

01:37:35 that gives you more than 15 parts,

01:37:37 you’ll know pretty much for sure

01:37:40 that it had to be produced by evolution.

01:37:43 And this allowed me to come up with a general definition

01:37:45 of life based on assembly theory,

01:37:47 to say that if I find an object that has a large number

01:37:51 of parts, say an iPhone or Boeing 747,

01:37:54 or any complex object and I can find it in abundance

01:37:58 and cut it up, I can tell you whether that has been produced

01:38:03 by an informational process or not.

01:38:04 And that’s what assembly theory kind of does.

01:38:07 But it goes a bit further.

01:38:09 I then realized that this isn’t just about life,

01:38:12 it’s about causation.

01:38:14 So actually it tells you about

01:38:15 whether it’s a causal structure.

01:38:17 So now I can look at objects in the universe,

01:38:19 say that again, this cup and say, right,

01:38:20 I’m gonna look at how many independent parts it has.

01:38:23 So that’s the assembly number.

01:38:25 I’ll then look at the abundance, how many cups?

01:38:28 There are two on this table,

01:38:28 maybe there’s a few more you got stashed away.

01:38:31 So assembly is a function of the complexity of the object

01:38:37 times the number of copy numbers of that object

01:38:39 or a function of the copy number normalized.

01:38:41 So I realized there’s a new quantity in the universe.

01:38:45 You have energy, entropy, and assembly.

01:38:49 So assembly, the way we should think about that

01:38:51 is how much reusability there is.

01:38:55 Because reusability is like,

01:38:57 can you play devil’s advocate to this?

01:38:59 So could this just be a nice tertiary signal

01:39:08 for living organisms?

01:39:10 Like some kind of distant signal that’s,

01:39:13 yeah, this is a nice property,

01:39:15 but it’s not capturing something fundamental.

01:39:17 Or do you think reusability is something fundamental

01:39:20 to life and complex organisms?

01:39:22 I think reusability is fundamental in the universe,

01:39:25 not just for life and complex organisms.

01:39:27 It’s about causation.

01:39:29 So I think assembly tells you if you find objects,

01:39:32 cause you can do this with trajectories as well.

01:39:35 You think about it,

01:39:36 that the fact there are objects in the universe on earth

01:39:41 is weird.

01:39:43 You think about it,

01:39:44 we should just have a combinatorial explosion of stuff.

01:39:47 The fact that not everything exists is really weird.

01:39:53 Now then.

01:39:54 And then as I’m looking at two mugs and two water bottles

01:39:59 and the things that exist kind of are similar

01:40:04 and multiply in copies of each other.

01:40:08 So I would say that assembly allows you to do something

01:40:10 that statistical mechanics and people looking at entropy

01:40:14 have got stuck with for a while.

01:40:16 So I’m making, it’s pretty bold.

01:40:18 I mean, I’m writing a paper with Sarah Walker

01:40:20 on this at the moment.

01:40:21 And we’re realizing,

01:40:23 we don’t want to get ahead of ourselves

01:40:24 because I think that there’s lots of ways where this is,

01:40:27 you know, it’s a really interesting idea.

01:40:30 It works for molecules and it appears to work

01:40:33 for any objects produced by causation.

01:40:35 Cause you can take a motor car,

01:40:36 you can look at the assembly of the motor car,

01:40:37 look at a book, look at the assembly of the book.

01:40:39 Assembly theory tells you

01:40:41 there’s a way of compressing and reusing.

01:40:43 And so when people, I talk to information theorists,

01:40:46 they say, oh, this is just logical depth.

01:40:48 I say, it is like logical depth,

01:40:51 but it’s experimentally measurable.

01:40:53 They say, oh, it’s a bit like Komogolov complexity.

01:40:55 And so, but it’s computable.

01:40:59 And now, okay, it’s not infinitely computable,

01:41:00 gets MP hard very quickly, right?

01:41:02 It’s very hard problem when you could get,

01:41:04 but it’s a computable enough,

01:41:06 you could tractable enough to be able to tell

01:41:08 the difference between a molecule

01:41:09 that’s been formed by the random background

01:41:11 and by causation.

01:41:13 And I think that that’s really interesting

01:41:16 because until now there’s no way

01:41:19 of measuring complexity objectively.

01:41:21 Complexity has required algorithmic comparisons

01:41:26 and programs and human beings to label things.

01:41:30 Assembly is label free.

01:41:32 Well, not entirely.

01:41:34 We can talk about what that means in a minute.

01:41:37 Okay, my brain has been broken a couple of times here.

01:41:42 I’m sorry I explained it really badly.

01:41:43 No, it was very well explained.

01:41:45 It was just fascinating.

01:41:45 And it’s, my brain is broken into pieces

01:41:50 and I’m trying to assemble it.

01:41:53 So MP hard.

01:41:55 So when you have a molecule,

01:41:58 you’re trying to figure out, okay,

01:42:01 if we were to reuse parts of this molecule,

01:42:03 which parts can we reuse as an optimization problem,

01:42:10 and be hard to figure out the minimum amount

01:42:13 of reused components that will create this molecule.

01:42:18 And it becomes difficult when you start

01:42:19 to look at a huge, huge molecules, arbitrarily large.

01:42:23 Cause I’m also like mapping this.

01:42:25 Can I think about this in complexity generally,

01:42:28 like looking at a cellular automata system

01:42:30 and saying like, what’s the,

01:42:33 can this be used as a measure of complexity

01:42:35 for like a arbitrarily complicated system?

01:42:38 Yeah, I think it can.

01:42:40 It can.

01:42:41 And I think that the question is, and what’s the benefit?

01:42:43 Cause there’s plenty of, I mean,

01:42:46 in computer science and mathematics and in physics,

01:42:48 people have been really seriously studying complexity

01:42:51 for a long time.

01:42:53 And I think there’s a really interesting problems

01:42:55 of where we course grade and we lose information.

01:42:58 And all assembly theory does really,

01:43:00 assembly theory just explains weak emergence.

01:43:03 And so what assembly theory says, look,

01:43:05 going from the atoms that interact,

01:43:08 those first replicators that build one another,

01:43:12 assembly at the minimal level just tells you evidence

01:43:14 that there’s been replication and selection.

01:43:17 And I think the more selected something is,

01:43:20 the higher the assembly.

01:43:22 And so we were able to start to know

01:43:25 how to look for selection in the universe.

01:43:27 If you go to the moon,

01:43:28 there’s nothing a very high assembly on the moon

01:43:30 except the human artifacts we’ve left there.

01:43:32 So again, let’s go back to the sandbox.

01:43:36 In assembly theory says,

01:43:37 if all the sand grains could stick together,

01:43:40 that’s the infinite combinatorial explosion

01:43:42 in the universe, that should be the default.

01:43:44 We don’t have that.

01:43:45 Now let’s assemble sand grains together

01:43:48 and do them in every possible way.

01:43:51 So we have a series of minimal operations

01:43:54 that can move the sand together.

01:43:56 But all that doesn’t exist either.

01:43:57 Now, because we have specific memory where we say,

01:43:59 well, we’re gonna put three sand grains in line

01:44:01 or four and make a cross or a triangle

01:44:03 or something unsymmetrical.

01:44:05 And once we’ve made the triangle

01:44:06 and the unsymmetrical thing, we remember that,

01:44:08 we can use it again, cause on that causal chain.

01:44:10 So what assembly theory allows you to do

01:44:12 is go to the actual object that you exist,

01:44:14 you find in space.

01:44:16 And actually the way you get there is by disassembling.

01:44:18 It’s disassembly theory works by disassembling objects

01:44:23 you have and understanding the steps to create them.

01:44:27 And it works for molecules beautifully

01:44:30 cause you just break bonds.

01:44:31 But like you said, it’s very difficult.

01:44:33 It’s a difficult problem to figure out

01:44:35 how to break them apart.

01:44:36 For molecules, it’s easy.

01:44:37 If you just keep low enough in molecular weight space,

01:44:40 it’s good enough.

01:44:41 So it’s a complete theory.

01:44:43 When we start to think about objects,

01:44:45 we can start to assign,

01:44:46 we can start to think about things at different levels,

01:44:49 different atoms, what you assign as your atom.

01:44:51 So in a molecule, the atom, this is really confusing

01:44:54 cause the word atom, I mean smallest breakable part.

01:44:57 So in a molecule, the atom is the bond

01:44:59 cause you break bonds, not atoms, right?

01:45:02 So in a car, the atom might be, I don’t know,

01:45:06 a small amount of iron or the smallest reusable part,

01:45:09 a rivet, a piece of plastic or something.

01:45:13 So you gotta be really careful.

01:45:14 In a microprocessor, the atoms might be transistors.

01:45:18 And so the amount of assembly that something has

01:45:23 is a function, you have to look at the atom level.

01:45:26 What are your parts?

01:45:28 What are you counting?

01:45:29 That’s one of the things you get to choose.

01:45:30 What is, at what scale is the atom?

01:45:32 What is the minimal thing?

01:45:34 I mean, there’s a huge amounts of trade offs

01:45:36 in when you approach a system and try to analyze.

01:45:39 Like if you approach Earth,

01:45:41 you’re an alien civilization trying to study Earth,

01:45:43 what is the atom for trying to measure

01:45:45 the complexity of life?

01:45:48 Is it, are humans the atoms?

01:45:50 I would say to start with, you just use molecules.

01:45:53 I can say for sure, if there are molecules

01:45:56 of sufficient complexity on Earth,

01:45:58 then I know that life has made them.

01:45:59 And then go further and show technology.

01:46:01 There are molecules that exist on Earth

01:46:03 that are not possible even by biology.

01:46:06 You needed technology

01:46:07 and you needed microprocessors to get there.

01:46:09 So that’s really cool.

01:46:11 And that there’s a correlation between that,

01:46:14 between the coolness of that and assembly number,

01:46:18 whatever the measure.

01:46:19 What’s the, what would you call the measure?

01:46:21 Assembly index.

01:46:22 Yeah, assembly index.

01:46:23 So there are three kind of fundamental

01:46:25 kind of labels we have.

01:46:26 So there’s the quantity of assembly

01:46:28 and the assembly, so if you have a box,

01:46:31 let’s just have a box of molecules.

01:46:32 So I’m gonna have my box.

01:46:34 We count the number of identical molecules

01:46:36 and then we chop each molecule up

01:46:37 in an individual molecule class

01:46:40 and calculate the assembly number.

01:46:42 So basically you then have a function

01:46:45 that sums over all the molecules for each assembly

01:46:49 and then you divide through.

01:46:50 So you make it divide through

01:46:52 by the number of molecules.

01:46:54 So that’s the assembly index for the box?

01:46:56 So that will tell you the amount of assembly in the box.

01:46:58 So basically the assembly equation we come up with

01:47:01 is like basically the sum of e to the power

01:47:04 of the assembly index for molecule i

01:47:07 times the number of copies of the molecule i

01:47:10 and then you normalize.

01:47:11 So you sum them all up and then normalize.

01:47:13 So some boxes are gonna be more assembled than others.

01:47:16 Yeah, that’s what they tell me.

01:47:17 So if you were to look at me as a box,

01:47:19 so say I’m a box, am I assembling my parts?

01:47:23 In terms of like, how do you know,

01:47:25 what’s my assembly index?

01:47:27 So I’ve been gentle.

01:47:28 So let’s just, we’ll talk about the molecules in you.

01:47:30 So let’s just take a pile of sand the same way as you

01:47:34 and I would take you and just cut up all the molecules.

01:47:40 I mean, and look at the number of copies

01:47:42 and assembly number.

01:47:43 So in sand, let’s say there’s probably gonna be

01:47:46 nothing more than assembly number of two or three,

01:47:48 but there might be trillions and trillions of sand grains.

01:47:51 In your body, there might be,

01:47:53 the assembly number is gonna be higher,

01:47:56 but there might not be as quite as many copies

01:47:58 because the molecular weight is higher.

01:48:01 So you do wanna average it out.

01:48:03 You can average, you do average it.

01:48:04 I’m not defined by the most impressive molecules.

01:48:07 No, no, you’re an average in your volume.

01:48:08 Well, I mean, we’re just working this out,

01:48:10 but what’s really cool is you’re gonna have

01:48:13 a really high assembly.

01:48:15 The sand will have a very low assembly.

01:48:16 Your causal power is much higher.

01:48:19 You get to make decisions, you’re alive, you’re aspiring.

01:48:22 Assembly says something about causal power in the universe.

01:48:26 And that’s not supposed to exist

01:48:28 because physicists don’t accept

01:48:30 that causation exists at the bottom.

01:48:33 So I understand at the chemical level

01:48:34 why the assembly causes causation.

01:48:37 Why is it causation?

01:48:38 Because it’s capturing the memory.

01:48:40 Exactly.

01:48:41 Capturing memory, but there’s not an action to it.

01:48:45 So I’m trying to see how it leads to life.

01:48:51 Well, it’s what life does.

01:48:52 So I think it’s, we don’t know.

01:48:55 So. Yeah, that’s a good question.

01:48:57 What is life versus what does life do?

01:49:00 Yeah, so that’s, this is the definition of life.

01:49:02 The only definition we need, right?

01:49:04 The assembly index.

01:49:05 It’s basically that life is able to create objects

01:49:09 in abundance that are so complex,

01:49:14 the assembly number is so high,

01:49:15 they can’t possibly be formed in an environment

01:49:18 where there’s just random interactions.

01:49:20 Yeah.

01:49:21 So suddenly you can put life on a scale.

01:49:24 And then life doesn’t exist actually in that camp.

01:49:27 It’s just how evolved you are.

01:49:30 And you as an object,

01:49:33 because you have incredible causal power,

01:49:35 you could go and, you can go and, you know,

01:49:39 launch rockets or build cars or create drugs,

01:49:43 or, you know, you can do so many things.

01:49:46 You can build stuff, build more artifacts

01:49:49 that show that you have had causal power.

01:49:52 And that causal power was this kind of a lineage.

01:49:55 And I think that over time,

01:49:57 I’ve been realizing that physics as a discipline

01:50:02 has a number of problems associated with it.

01:50:04 Me as a chemist, it’s kind of interesting

01:50:07 that assembly theory, and I’m really, you know,

01:50:10 I want to maintain some credibility in the physicists eyes,

01:50:13 but I have to push them because they,

01:50:15 physics is a really good discipline.

01:50:17 It’s reduced the number,

01:50:20 physics is about reducing the belief system,

01:50:22 but they’re down to some things in their belief system,

01:50:24 which is kind of really makes me kind of grumpy.

01:50:27 Number one is requiring order

01:50:29 at the beginning of the universe magically.

01:50:31 We don’t need that.

01:50:32 The second is the second law.

01:50:34 Well, we don’t actually need that.

01:50:36 And I…

01:50:37 This is blasphemous.

01:50:39 Well, in a minute, I’ll recover my career in a second.

01:50:42 Although I think the good,

01:50:43 the only good thing about being the regis chair

01:50:45 means I think there has to be an act of parliament to fire me.

01:50:47 Yeah.

01:50:48 Yeah.

01:50:49 Yeah.

01:50:50 Yeah.

01:50:51 Yeah.

01:50:52 But you can always go to Lee’s Twitter and protest.

01:50:56 And I think the third thing is that,

01:50:58 so we’ve got, you know,

01:50:59 we’ve got the order at the beginning.

01:51:02 Second law.

01:51:03 The second law and the fact that causation is emergent,

01:51:06 right?

01:51:07 And that time is emergent.

01:51:09 John Carroll just turned off this program.

01:51:12 I think he believes that it’s emergent.

01:51:13 So causation is not…

01:51:15 That’s clearly incorrect

01:51:17 because we wouldn’t exist otherwise.

01:51:19 So physicists have kind of got confused about time.

01:51:23 Time is a real thing.

01:51:25 Well, I mean, so look,

01:51:29 I’m very happy with the current description

01:51:31 of the universe as physics give me,

01:51:32 because I can do a lot of stuff, right?

01:51:33 I can go to the moon with Newtonian physics, I think,

01:51:36 and I can understand the orbit of Mercury with relativity.

01:51:41 And so, and I can build transistors

01:51:42 with quantum mechanics, right?

01:51:43 And I can do all this stuff.

01:51:45 So I’m not saying the physics is wrong.

01:51:47 I’m just saying, if we say that time is fundamental,

01:51:50 i.e. time is nonnegotiable, there’s a global clock,

01:51:52 I don’t need to require

01:51:56 that there’s order been magically made in the past

01:51:59 because that asymmetry is built into the way the universe is.

01:52:05 So if time is fundamental,

01:52:06 I mean, you’ve been referring to this kind of

01:52:11 an interesting formulation of that is memory.

01:52:13 Yeah.

01:52:14 So time is hard to like put a finger on,

01:52:18 like what the hell are we talking about?

01:52:20 Well, it’s just the direction,

01:52:21 but memory is a construction,

01:52:24 especially when you have like,

01:52:26 think about these local pockets of complexity,

01:52:28 these nonzero assembly index entities

01:52:34 that’s being constructed and they remember.

01:52:37 Never forget molecules.

01:52:39 But remember, the thing is I invented assembly theory.

01:52:42 I’ll tell you how I invented it.

01:52:44 When I was a kid, I mean, the thing is,

01:52:46 I keep making fun of myself to my research group.

01:52:48 I’ve only ever had one idea.

01:52:49 I keep exploring that idea over the 40 years or so

01:52:52 since I had the idea.

01:52:53 I used to be a…

01:52:54 Well, aren’t you the idea that the universe had?

01:52:56 So it’s very kind of hierarchical.

01:52:58 Anyway, go ahead.

01:52:59 I’m sorry.

01:53:00 That’s very poetic.

01:53:02 Yeah.

01:53:02 So I think I came up with assembly theory

01:53:04 with the following idea.

01:53:06 When I was a kid, I was obsessed about survival kits.

01:53:09 What is the minimum stuff I would need

01:53:12 to basically replicate my reality?

01:53:14 And I love computers and I love technology

01:53:17 or what technology is gonna become.

01:53:18 So I imagined that I would have

01:53:20 basically this really big truck full of stuff.

01:53:22 And I thought, well, can I delete some of that stuff out?

01:53:25 Can I have a blueprint?

01:53:26 And then in the end, I kept making this smaller.

01:53:29 I got to maybe a half a truck and then to a suitcase.

01:53:32 And then I went, okay, well, screw it.

01:53:33 I wanna carry my entire technology in my pocket.

01:53:37 How do I do it?

01:53:38 And I’m not gonna launch into Steve Jobs and iPlayer.

01:53:43 I came up with a matchbox survival kit.

01:53:45 In that matchbox survival kit,

01:53:47 I would have the minimum stuff

01:53:48 that would allow me to interact the environment,

01:53:50 to build my shelter, to build a fishing rod,

01:53:54 to build a water purification system.

01:53:57 And it’s kind of like, so what did I use in my box

01:53:59 to assemble in the environment,

01:54:01 to assemble, to assemble, to assemble?

01:54:04 And I realized I could make a causal chain

01:54:07 in my survival kit.

01:54:08 So I guess that’s probably why I’ve been obsessed

01:54:10 with assembly theory for so long.

01:54:11 And I was just pre configured to find it somewhere.

01:54:17 And when I saw it in molecules,

01:54:19 I realized that the causal structure that we say emerges

01:54:24 and the physics kind of gets really stuck

01:54:27 because they’re saying that time,

01:54:28 you can go backwards in time.

01:54:29 I mean, how do we let physicists get away

01:54:32 with the notion that we can go back in time

01:54:34 and meet ourselves?

01:54:35 I mean, that’s clearly a very hard thing

01:54:40 to allow, physicists would not let other sciences

01:54:45 get away with that kind of heresy, right?

01:54:49 So why are physicists allowed to get away with it?

01:54:50 Let’s, let’s.

01:54:51 So first of all, to push back, to play devil’s advocate,

01:54:54 you are clearly married to the idea of memory.

01:54:58 You see in this, again, from Rick and Morty way,

01:55:02 you see, you have these deep dreams of the universe

01:55:06 that is writing the story through its memories,

01:55:08 through its chemical compounds

01:55:10 that are just building at top of each other.

01:55:12 And then they find useful components they can reuse.

01:55:16 And then the reused components create systems

01:55:19 that themselves are then reused

01:55:21 and all in this way, construct things.

01:55:24 But when you think of that as memory,

01:55:27 it seems like quite sad that you can walk that back.

01:55:31 But at the same time, it feels like that memory,

01:55:34 you can walk in both directions on that memory

01:55:37 in terms of time.

01:55:38 You could walk in both directions,

01:55:39 but I don’t think that that makes any sense

01:55:42 because the problem that I have with time being reversible

01:55:50 is that, I mean, I’m just a, you know,

01:55:53 I’m a dumb experimental chemist, right?

01:55:55 So I love burning stuff, burning stuff and building stuff.

01:55:58 But when I think of reversible phenomena,

01:56:01 I imagine in my head,

01:56:02 I have to actually manufacture some time.

01:56:05 I have to borrow time from the universe to do that.

01:56:08 I can’t, when anyone says,

01:56:10 let’s imagine that we can go back in time or reversibility,

01:56:13 you can’t do that.

01:56:14 You can’t step out of time.

01:56:15 Time is nonnegotiable, it’s happening.

01:56:17 No, but see, you’re assuming that time is fundamental,

01:56:20 which most of us do when we go day to day,

01:56:23 but it takes a leap of wild imagination

01:56:27 to think that time is emergent.

01:56:29 No, time is not emergent.

01:56:30 Yeah, I mean, this is an argument we can have,

01:56:32 but I believe I can come up with an experiment.

01:56:35 An experiment that proves

01:56:37 that time cannot possibly be emergent.

01:56:38 An experiment that shows how assembly theory

01:56:43 kind of is the way that the universe produces selection

01:56:48 and that selection gives rise to life.

01:56:50 And also to say, well, hang on,

01:56:53 we could allow ourselves to have a theory

01:56:55 that requires us to have these statements to be possible.

01:56:59 Like we need to have order in the past,

01:57:03 or we can use the past hypothesis,

01:57:06 which is order in the past, but as well, okay.

01:57:10 And we have to have an arrow of time.

01:57:12 We have to require that entropy increases.

01:57:16 And we have to say, and then we can say, look,

01:57:17 the universe is completely closed and there’s no novelty

01:57:21 or that novelty is predetermined.

01:57:23 What I’m saying is very, very important

01:57:26 that time is fundamental, which means,

01:57:28 if you think about it,

01:57:30 the universe becomes more and more novel each step.

01:57:32 It generates there’s more states

01:57:33 in the next step than it was before.

01:57:35 So that means bigger search.

01:57:37 So what I’m saying is that the universe

01:57:39 wasn’t capable of consciousness at day one,

01:57:43 actually, because it didn’t have enough states.

01:57:45 But today the universe is, so it’s like how?

01:57:48 All right, all right, hold on a second.

01:57:51 Now we’ve pissed off the panpsychist too, okay.

01:57:55 No, this is brilliant, sorry.

01:57:57 Part of me is just joking, having fun with this thing,

01:58:00 but because you’re saying a lot of brilliant stuff

01:58:02 and I’m trying to slow it down before my brain explodes.

01:58:05 So, because I want to break apart

01:58:08 some of the fascinating things you’re saying.

01:58:10 So novelty, novelty is increasing in the universe

01:58:14 because the number of states is increasing.

01:58:16 What do you mean by states?

01:58:18 So I think the physicists almost got everything right.

01:58:20 I can’t fault them at all.

01:58:22 I just think there’s a little bit of dogma.

01:58:24 I’m just trying to play devil’s advocate.

01:58:25 I’m very happy to be entirely wrong on this, right?

01:58:28 I’m not right on many things at all,

01:58:31 but if I can make less assumptions

01:58:34 about the universe with this,

01:58:35 then potentially that’s a more powerful way

01:58:38 of looking at things.

01:58:39 If you think of time as fundamental,

01:58:41 you can make less assumptions overall.

01:58:43 Exactly, if time is fundamental,

01:58:45 I don’t need to add on a magical second law

01:58:48 because the second law comes out of the fact

01:58:49 the universe is actually, there’s more states available.

01:58:52 I mean, we might even be able to do weird things

01:58:54 like dark energy in the universe

01:58:55 might actually just be time, right?

01:58:58 Yeah, but then you have to still have to explain

01:59:00 why time is fundamental,

01:59:02 because I can give you one explanation

01:59:04 that’s simpler than time and say God.

01:59:07 You know, like just because it’s simple

01:59:08 doesn’t mean it’s, okay, you still have to explain God

01:59:12 and you still have to explain time.

01:59:14 Like why is it fundamental?

01:59:15 So let’s just say existence is default,

01:59:18 which means time is the default.

01:59:19 So how did you go from the existence

01:59:22 of the time to the default? Well, we exist, right?

01:59:24 So let’s just be very.

01:59:26 We’re yet to talk about what exist means.

01:59:28 All right, let’s go all the way back.

01:59:30 Yeah, yeah, yeah, okay.

01:59:31 I think it’s very poetic and beautiful

01:59:32 what you’re weaving into this.

01:59:34 I don’t think this conversation is even about the assembly,

01:59:38 which is fascinating and we’ll keep mentioning it

01:59:41 in the index on this idea,

01:59:42 that I don’t think is necessarily connected to time.

01:59:46 Oh, I think it is deeply connected.

01:59:49 I can’t explain it yet.

01:59:50 So you don’t think everything you’ve said

01:59:52 about assembly theory and assembly index

01:59:56 can still be correct even if time is emergent?

01:59:58 So yeah, right now, assembly theory appears to work.

02:00:01 I appear to be able to measure objects of high assembly

02:00:04 in a mass spectrometer and look at their abundance

02:00:06 and you know, all that’s fine, right?

02:00:08 It’s a nice, if nothing else, it’s a nice way

02:00:10 of looking at how molecules can compress things.

02:00:14 Now, am I saying that a time has to be fundamental,

02:00:17 not emergent for assembly theory to work?

02:00:18 No, I think I’m saying that the universe,

02:00:23 it appears that the universe has many different ways

02:00:25 of using time.

02:00:26 You could have three different types of time.

02:00:28 You could just have time that’s,

02:00:29 the way I would think of it,

02:00:30 if you want to hold onto emergent time,

02:00:33 I think that’s fine, let’s do that for a second.

02:00:35 Hold onto emergent time

02:00:37 and the universe is just doing its thing.

02:00:39 Then assembly time only exists when the universe

02:00:41 starts to write memories through bonds.

02:00:43 So let’s just say there’s rocks running around,

02:00:45 you know, when the bond happens and selection starts,

02:00:49 suddenly there are, the universe is remembering cause

02:00:54 in the past and those structures will have effects

02:00:57 in the future.

02:00:57 So suddenly a new type of time emerges at that point,

02:01:00 which has a direction.

02:01:02 And I think Sean Carroll at this point

02:01:04 might even turn the podcast back on and go,

02:01:06 okay, I can deal with that, that’s fine.

02:01:08 But I’m just basically trying to condense the conversation,

02:01:10 say, hey, let’s just have time fundamental

02:01:13 and see how that screws with people’s minds.

02:01:14 Why?

02:01:15 You’re triggering people by saying fundamental.

02:01:17 Why not?

02:01:18 Well, you just say, like, let’s say.

02:01:19 Why am I, look, I’m walking through the wall.

02:01:21 Why should I grow up in a world where time,

02:01:26 I don’t go back in time.

02:01:28 I don’t meet myself in the past.

02:01:30 There are no one, there are no aliens coming

02:01:32 from the future, right?

02:01:34 You know, it’s just like.

02:01:35 No, no, no, but that’s not, no, no, no, hold on a second.

02:01:38 That’s like saying we’re talking about biology

02:01:41 or like evolutionary psychology

02:01:44 and you’re saying, okay, let’s just assume

02:01:46 that clothing is fundamental.

02:01:48 People wearing clothes is fundamental.

02:01:50 It’s like, no, no, no, wait a minute.

02:01:52 You can’t, like, I think you’re gonna get in a lot of trouble

02:01:55 if you assume time is fundamental.

02:01:57 Why?

02:01:58 Give me one reason why I’m getting into trouble

02:02:00 with time being fundamental.

02:02:01 Because you might not understand

02:02:04 the origins of this memory that might be deeper.

02:02:08 Like this memory, that could be a thing

02:02:11 that’s explaining the construction of these

02:02:14 higher complexities better than just saying

02:02:19 it’s a search, it’s chemicals doing a search

02:02:23 for reusable structures that they can like

02:02:30 then use as bricks to build a house.

02:02:32 Okay, so I accept that.

02:02:34 So let’s go back a second because it’s a kind of,

02:02:37 I wanted to drop the time bomb at this part

02:02:40 because I think we can carry on discussing it

02:02:42 for many, many, many, many, many days, many months.

02:02:46 But I’m happy to accept that it might be wrong.

02:02:50 But what I would like to do is imagine a universe

02:02:53 where time is fundamental and time is emergent

02:02:56 and ask, let’s just then talk about causation

02:03:00 because physicists require that causation.

02:03:02 So this is where I’m gonna go.

02:03:04 Causation emerges and it doesn’t exist at the micro scale.

02:03:08 Well, that clearly is wrong

02:03:09 because if causation has to emerge at the macro scale,

02:03:12 life cannot emerge.

02:03:13 So how does life emerge?

02:03:15 Life requires molecules to bump into each other,

02:03:17 produce replicators, those replicators

02:03:20 need to produce polymers.

02:03:21 There needs to be cause and effect at the molecular level.

02:03:24 There needs to be an agardic, non agardic

02:03:26 to an agardic transition at some point.

02:03:29 And those replicators have consequence,

02:03:35 material consequence in the universe.

02:03:37 Physicists just say, oh, you know what?

02:03:39 I’m gonna have a bunch of particles in a box.

02:03:42 I’m gonna think about it in a Newtonian way

02:03:44 and a quantum way and I’ll add on an arrow of time

02:03:48 so I can label things

02:03:50 and causation will happen magically later.

02:03:51 Well, how?

02:03:52 Explain causation and they can’t.

02:03:55 The only way I can reconcile causation

02:03:58 is having a fundamental time

02:04:00 because this allows me to have a deterministic universe

02:04:03 that creates novelty.

02:04:05 And there’s so many things to unpack here

02:04:08 but let’s go back to the point.

02:04:09 You said, can assembly theory work with emergent time?

02:04:12 Sure it can, but it doesn’t give me a deep satisfaction

02:04:16 about how causation and assembly gives rise

02:04:21 to these objects that move through time and space.

02:04:24 And again, what am I saying to bring it back?

02:04:27 I can say without fear, take this water bottle

02:04:31 and look at this water bottle

02:04:32 and look at the features on it.

02:04:32 There’s writing, you’ve got a load of them.

02:04:35 I know that causal structures gave rise to this.

02:04:38 In fact, I’m not looking at just one water bottle here.

02:04:40 I’m looking at every water bottle

02:04:42 that’s ever been conceived of by humanity.

02:04:44 This here is a special object.

02:04:46 In fact, Leibniz knew this.

02:04:48 Leibniz who was at the same time of Newton,

02:04:52 he kind of got stuck.

02:04:53 I think Leibniz actually invented assembly theory.

02:04:56 He gave soul, the soul that you see in objects

02:04:58 wasn’t the mystical soul, it is assembly.

02:05:01 It is the fact there’s been a history of objects related

02:05:03 and without the object in the past,

02:05:06 this object wouldn’t exist.

02:05:08 There is a lineage and there is conserved structures,

02:05:12 causal structures have given rise to those.

02:05:17 Fair enough.

02:05:17 And you’re saying it’s just a simpler view

02:05:20 if time is fundamental.

02:05:23 And it shakes the physicist’s cage a bit, right?

02:05:25 Because I’m gonna say, but I think that.

02:05:29 I just enjoy the fact that physicists are in cages.

02:05:32 I think that, I mean, I would say that, you know,

02:05:35 Lee Smolin, I don’t want to speak for Lee.

02:05:37 I mean, I’m talking to Lee about this.

02:05:39 I think Lee also is an agreement

02:05:41 that time has to be fundamental,

02:05:43 but I think he goes further.

02:05:45 You know, even in space,

02:05:46 I don’t think you can go back to the same place in space.

02:05:49 I’ve been to Austin a few times now.

02:05:51 This is my, I think third time I’ve been to Austin.

02:05:54 Is Austin in the same place?

02:05:55 No, the solar system is moving through space.

02:05:59 I’m not back in the same space.

02:06:01 Locally I am.

02:06:03 Every event in the universe is unique.

02:06:07 In space.

02:06:08 And time.

02:06:09 And time.

02:06:10 Doesn’t mean we can’t go back though.

02:06:13 I mean, you know, let’s just, you know,

02:06:17 rest this conversation, which was beautiful,

02:06:20 with a quote from the Rolling Stones

02:06:22 that you can’t always get what you want,

02:06:25 which is you want time to be fundamental,

02:06:27 but if you try, you’ll get what you need,

02:06:30 which is assembly theory.

02:06:32 Okay, let me ask you about,

02:06:34 continue talking about complexity,

02:06:36 and to clarify with this beautiful theory of yours

02:06:42 that you’re developing,

02:06:43 and I’m sure we’ll continue developing

02:06:45 both in the lab and in theory.

02:06:49 Yeah, it can’t be said enough,

02:06:52 just the ideas you’re playing with in your head are just,

02:06:56 and we’ve been talking about are just beautiful.

02:06:58 So if we talk about complexity a little bit more generally,

02:07:02 maybe in an admiring romantic way,

02:07:05 how does complexity emerge from simple rules?

02:07:09 The why, the how.

02:07:11 Okay, the nice algorithm of assembly is there.

02:07:14 I would say that the problem I have right now is,

02:07:17 I mean, you’re right, we can, about time as well.

02:07:20 The problem is I have this hammer called assembly,

02:07:22 and everything I see is a nail.

02:07:24 So now let’s just apply it to all sorts of things.

02:07:27 We take the Bernard instability.

02:07:28 The Bernard instability is you have oil,

02:07:32 if you heat up oil, let’s say on a frying pan,

02:07:35 when you get convection, you get honeycomb patterns.

02:07:37 Take the formation of snowflakes, right?

02:07:40 Take the emergence of a tropical storm,

02:07:45 or the storm on Jupiter.

02:07:47 When people say, let’s talk about complexity in general,

02:07:50 what they’re saying is,

02:07:51 let’s take this collection of objects

02:07:54 that are correlated in some way,

02:07:56 and try and work out how many moving parts there are,

02:08:00 how this got, how this exists.

02:08:02 So what people have been doing for a very long time

02:08:04 is taking complexity and counting what they’ve lost,

02:08:09 calculating the entropy.

02:08:11 And the reason why I’m pushing very hard on assembly

02:08:13 is entropy tells you how much you’ve lost.

02:08:16 It doesn’t tell you the microstates are gone.

02:08:18 But if you embrace the bottom up with assembly,

02:08:21 those states, and you then understand the causal chain

02:08:26 that gives rise to the emergence.

02:08:28 So what I think assembly will help us do

02:08:31 is understand weak emergence at the very least,

02:08:34 and maybe allow us to crack open complexity in a new way.

02:08:39 And I’ve been fascinated with complexity theory

02:08:42 for many years.

02:08:43 I mean, as soon as I could,

02:08:46 I learned of the Mandelbrot set,

02:08:48 and I could just type it up in my computer and run it,

02:08:52 and just show it and see it kind of unfold.

02:08:55 It was just this kind of,

02:08:58 this mathematical reality that existed in front of me,

02:09:01 I just found incredible.

02:09:03 But then I realized that actually we were cheating.

02:09:07 We’re putting in the boundary conditions all the time.

02:09:09 We’re putting in information.

02:09:11 And so when people talk to me

02:09:13 about the complexity of things,

02:09:16 I say, but relative what, how do you measure them?

02:09:18 So my attempt, my small attempt, naive attempt,

02:09:23 because there’s many greater minds than mine

02:09:25 on the planet right now thinking about this properly.

02:09:27 And you’ve had some of them on the podcast, right?

02:09:29 Just absolutely fantastic.

02:09:33 But I’m wondering if we might be able to reformat

02:09:35 the way we would explore algorithmic complexity

02:09:39 using assembly.

02:09:41 What’s the minimum number of constraints we need

02:09:45 in our system for this to unfold?

02:09:47 So whether it’s like, if you take some particles

02:09:50 and put them in a box,

02:09:52 at a certain box size, you get quasi crystallinity

02:09:55 coming out, right?

02:09:57 But that quite, that emergence, it’s not magic.

02:10:00 It must come from the boundary conditions you put in.

02:10:03 So all I’m saying is a lot of the complexity that we see

02:10:07 is a direct read of the constraints we put in,

02:10:10 but we just don’t understand.

02:10:11 So as I said earlier to the poor origin of life chemists,

02:10:14 you know, origin of life is a scam.

02:10:17 I would say lots of the complexity calculation theory

02:10:20 is a bit of a scam

02:10:21 because we put the constraints in,

02:10:22 but we don’t count them correctly.

02:10:25 And I’m wondering if…

02:10:26 Oh, you’re thinking and starting to drop

02:10:28 as assembly theory, assembly index

02:10:31 is a way to count to the constraints.

02:10:33 Yes, that’s it.

02:10:34 That’s all it is.

02:10:35 So assembly theory doesn’t do,

02:10:36 doesn’t lower any of the importance of complexity theory,

02:10:40 but it allows us to go across domains

02:10:42 and start to compare things,

02:10:44 compare the complexity of a molecule,

02:10:46 of a microprocessor, of the text you’ve writing,

02:10:49 of the music you may compose.

02:10:53 You’ve tweeted, quote,

02:10:55 “‘Assembly theory explains why Nietzsche understood

02:10:58 we had limited freedom rather than radical freedom.’

02:11:01 So we’ve applied assembly theory

02:11:03 to cellular automata in life and chemistry.

02:11:07 What does Nietzsche have to do with assembly theory?

02:11:09 Oh, that gets me into free will and everything.

02:11:13 So let me say that again.

02:11:14 Assembly theory explains why Nietzsche understood

02:11:16 we had limited freedom rather than radical freedom.

02:11:20 Limited freedom, I suppose, is referring to the fact

02:11:23 that there’s constraints or what is radical freedom?

02:11:28 What is freedom?

02:11:30 So Sartre was like believed in absolute freedom

02:11:34 and that he could do whatever he wanted in his imagination.

02:11:38 And Nietzsche understood that his freedom

02:11:41 was somewhat more limited.

02:11:44 And it kind of takes me back to this computer game

02:11:46 that I played when I was 10.

02:11:47 So I think it’s called Dragon’s Lair.

02:11:49 Okay.

02:11:51 Do you know Dragon’s Lair?

02:11:52 I think I know Dragon’s Lair, yeah.

02:11:54 Dragon’s Lair, I knew I was being conned, right?

02:11:56 Dragon’s Lair, when you play the game,

02:11:57 you’re lucky that you grew up

02:11:59 in a basically procedurally generated world.

02:12:01 That was RPG a little bit.

02:12:03 No, it’s like, is it turn based play?

02:12:05 Was it?

02:12:06 No.

02:12:07 It was a role playing game.

02:12:08 Role playing.

02:12:09 But really good graphics and one of the first laser disks.

02:12:11 And when you actually flick the stick,

02:12:13 you took, it’s like it was like a graphical adventure game

02:12:16 with animation.

02:12:17 Yeah.

02:12:18 And when I played this game, I really, you know,

02:12:19 you could get through the game in 12 minutes

02:12:22 if you knew what you were doing without making mistakes,

02:12:23 just play the disk, play the disk, play a disk.

02:12:25 So it was just about timing.

02:12:27 And actually it was a complete fraud

02:12:29 because all the animation has been prerecorded on the disk.

02:12:33 It’s like the Black Mirror, the first interactive

02:12:36 where they had all the, you know,

02:12:37 several million kind of permutations of the movie

02:12:41 that you could select on Netflix.

02:12:42 I’ve forgotten the name of it.

02:12:44 So this was exactly that in the laser disk.

02:12:47 So you basically go left, go right, fight the yoga,

02:12:50 slay the dragon.

02:12:52 And when you flick the joystick at the right time,

02:12:53 it just goes to the next animation to play.

02:12:55 Yeah.

02:12:56 It’s not really generating it.

02:12:57 Yeah.

02:12:58 And I played that game and I knew I was being had.

02:13:01 So.

02:13:02 Oh, okay.

02:13:03 I see, I see.

02:13:03 So to you, Dragon Lair is the first time you realized

02:13:07 that free will is an illusion.

02:13:09 Yeah.

02:13:10 And why does assembly theory give you hints

02:13:14 about free will, whether it’s an illusion or not?

02:13:17 Yeah, so no, so not tightly.

02:13:18 If I do think I have some will and I think I am an agent

02:13:22 and I think I can interact and I can play around

02:13:24 with the model I have of the world

02:13:27 and the cost functions, right?

02:13:28 And I can hack my own cost functions,

02:13:30 which means I have a little bit of free will.

02:13:32 But as much as I want to do stuff in the universe,

02:13:35 I don’t think I could suddenly say,

02:13:37 I mean, actually this is ridiculous.

02:13:38 Cause now I say I could try and do it, right?

02:13:39 Like I’m suddenly give up everything

02:13:41 and become a rapper tomorrow, right?

02:13:44 Maybe I could try that,

02:13:45 but I don’t have sufficient agency

02:13:48 to make that necessarily happen.

02:13:50 I’m on a trajectory.

02:13:51 So when in Dragon’s Lair,

02:13:52 I know that I have some trajectories that I can play with

02:13:56 where Sartre realized he thought

02:13:58 that he had no assembly, no memory.

02:14:00 He could just leap across and do everything.

02:14:03 And Nietzsche said, okay, I realize I don’t have

02:14:06 full freedom, but I have some freedom.

02:14:09 And the assembly theory basically says that,

02:14:11 it says, if you have these constraints in your past,

02:14:14 they limit what you were able to do in the future,

02:14:16 but you can use them to do amazing things.

02:14:19 Let’s say I’m a poppy plant and I’m creating some opiates.

02:14:23 Opiates are really interesting molecules.

02:14:25 I mean, they’re obviously great for medicine,

02:14:27 cause great problems in society.

02:14:29 But let’s imagine we fast forward a billion years,

02:14:33 what will the opioids look like in a billion years?

02:14:37 Well, we can guess because we can see

02:14:39 how those proteins will evolve

02:14:41 and we can see how the secondary metabolites will change.

02:14:44 But they can’t go radical.

02:14:46 They can’t suddenly become, I don’t know,

02:14:48 like a molecule that you find in an OLED in a display.

02:14:52 They will have some,

02:14:53 they will be limited by the causal chain that produced them.

02:14:56 And that’s what I’m getting at,

02:14:58 saying we are unpredictably predictable

02:15:03 or predictably unpredictable within a constraint

02:15:07 on the trajectory we’re on.

02:15:08 Yeah, so the predictably part

02:15:10 is the constraints of the trajectory

02:15:12 and the unpredictable part is the part

02:15:14 that you still haven’t really clarified

02:15:16 the origin of the little bit of freedom.

02:15:19 Yeah.

02:15:20 So you’re just arguing,

02:15:22 you’re basically saying that radical freedom is impossible.

02:15:26 You’re really operating in a world of constraints

02:15:29 that are constrained by the memory of the trajectory

02:15:31 of the chemistry that led to who you are.

02:15:33 Okay, but even just a tiny bit of freedom,

02:15:39 even if everything, if everywhere you are in cages,

02:15:45 if you can move around in that cage a little bit,

02:15:49 you’re free.

02:15:50 I agree.

02:15:51 And so the question is in assembly theory,

02:15:55 if we’re thinking about free will,

02:15:57 where does the little bit of freedom come from?

02:15:59 What is the eye that can decide to be a rapper?

02:16:03 What, why, what is that?

02:16:06 That’s a cute little trick we’ve convinced each other of

02:16:10 so we can do fun tricks at parties

02:16:13 or is there something fundamental

02:16:15 that allows us to feel free, to be free?

02:16:18 I think that that’s the question that I wanna answer.

02:16:21 I know you wanna answer it and I think it’s so profound.

02:16:25 Let me have a go at it.

02:16:27 I would say that I don’t take the stance of Sam Harris

02:16:30 because I think Sam Harris, when he said,

02:16:31 the way he says it is almost,

02:16:33 it’s really interesting.

02:16:34 I’d love to talk to him about it.

02:16:35 Sam Harris almost thinks himself out of existence, right?

02:16:37 Because, do you know what I mean?

02:16:40 Yeah, well, I mean, he has different views

02:16:43 on consciousness versus free will.

02:16:45 I think he saves himself with consciousness.

02:16:47 He thinks himself out of existence with free will.

02:16:49 Yeah, yeah, exactly.

02:16:50 So I mean, there’s no point, right?

02:16:53 So I…

02:16:54 He’s a leaf floating on a river.

02:16:55 Yeah, I think that he, I don’t know,

02:17:00 I’d love to ask him whether he really believes that

02:17:03 and then we could play some games.

02:17:04 Oh, yeah.

02:17:05 No, no, I then would say,

02:17:06 I’ll get him to play a game of cards with me

02:17:08 and I’ll work out the conditions on which he says no,

02:17:11 and then I’ll get him to the conditions he says yes,

02:17:13 and then I’ll trap him in his logical inconsistency

02:17:15 with that argument.

02:17:17 Because at some point when he loses enough money

02:17:19 or the prospect of losing enough money,

02:17:23 there’s a way of basically mapping out a series of…

02:17:26 So what will is about, let’s not call it free will,

02:17:30 but what will is about is to have a series of decisions

02:17:34 equally weighted in front of you.

02:17:36 And those decisions aren’t necessarily energy minimization.

02:17:39 Those decisions are a function of the model

02:17:43 you’ve made in your mind, you’re in your simulation.

02:17:45 And the way you’ve interacted in reality

02:17:48 and also other interactions you’re having

02:17:52 with other individuals and happenstance.

02:17:55 And I think that there’s a little bit of delay in time.

02:18:00 So I think what you’re able to do is say,

02:18:03 well, I’m gonna do the counterfactual.

02:18:06 I’ve done all of them.

02:18:08 And I’m gonna go this way.

02:18:10 And you probably don’t know why.

02:18:12 I think free will is actually very complex interaction

02:18:14 between your unconscious and your conscious brain.

02:18:18 And I think the reason why we’re arguing about it

02:18:20 is so interesting in that we just,

02:18:23 some people outsource their free will

02:18:26 to their unconscious brain.

02:18:28 And some people try and overthink

02:18:31 the free will and the conscious brain.

02:18:33 I would say that Sam Harris has realized

02:18:35 his conscious brain doesn’t have free will,

02:18:36 but his unconscious brain does.

02:18:38 That’s my guess, right?

02:18:39 And that he can’t have access to the unconscious brain.

02:18:42 Yeah, and that’s kind of annoying.

02:18:43 And so he’s just, he’s going to, through meditation,

02:18:46 come to acceptance with that fact.

02:18:48 Yeah, it’s just maybe okay.

02:18:50 But I do think that I have the ability to make decisions

02:18:55 and I like my decisions.

02:18:56 In fact, I mean, this is an argument I have

02:18:58 with some people that some days I feel

02:19:02 I have no free will and it’s just an illusion.

02:19:04 And this is one, and it makes me more radical,

02:19:06 if you like, you know, that I get to explore

02:19:10 more of the state space.

02:19:11 And I’m like, I’m going to try and affect the world now.

02:19:13 I’m really going to ask the question

02:19:15 that maybe I dare not ask or do the thing I dare not do.

02:19:19 And that allows me to kind of explore more.

02:19:21 It’s funny that if you truly accept

02:19:25 that there’s no free will, that is a kind of radical freedom.

02:19:31 It’s funny, but you’re, because the little bit

02:19:36 of the illusion under that framework that you have

02:19:40 that you can make choices, if choice is just an illusion

02:19:43 of psychology, you can do whatever the hell you want.

02:19:46 That’s the.

02:19:47 But we don’t, do we?

02:19:48 And I think.

02:19:49 But because you don’t truly accept

02:19:51 that you think that there’s like, you think there’s a choice

02:19:56 which is why you don’t just do whatever the hell you want.

02:20:00 Like you feel like there’s some responsibility

02:20:03 for making the wrong choice, which is why you don’t do it.

02:20:05 But if you truly accept that the choice

02:20:07 has already been made, then you can go,

02:20:12 I don’t know what is the most radical thing.

02:20:16 I mean, but yeah, I don’t, I wonder what,

02:20:19 what am I preventing myself from doing

02:20:21 that I would really want to do?

02:20:24 Probably like humor stuff.

02:20:26 Like I would love to, if I could like save a game,

02:20:31 do the thing and then reload it later,

02:20:34 like do undo, it probably would be humor.

02:20:37 Just to do something like super hilarious.

02:20:42 That’s super embarrassing.

02:20:43 And then just go, I mean, it’s basically just fun.

02:20:46 I would add more fun to the world.

02:20:47 I mean, I sometimes do that as I’ve, you know,

02:20:51 I sometimes I try and mess up my reality in unusual ways

02:20:56 by just doing things because I’m bored, but not bored.

02:20:59 I’m not expressing this very well.

02:21:00 I think that this is a really interesting problem

02:21:02 that perhaps the hard sciences don’t really understand

02:21:05 that they are responsible for

02:21:06 because the question about how life emerged

02:21:09 and how intelligence emerges and consciousness and free will

02:21:12 they’re all ultimately boiling down

02:21:14 to some of the same mechanics.

02:21:15 I think, my feeling is that they are the same problem

02:21:19 again and again and again.

02:21:20 The transition from a, you know, a boring world

02:21:24 or a world in which there is no selection.

02:21:26 So I wonder if free will has something to do

02:21:28 with selection and models.

02:21:29 And also the models you’re generating in the brain

02:21:32 and also your, the amount of memory,

02:21:34 your working memory have available at any one time

02:21:35 to generate counterfactuals.

02:21:37 Well, that’s fascinating.

02:21:38 So like the decision making process is a kind of selection

02:21:42 and that could be just another,

02:21:43 yet another manifestation of the selection mechanism

02:21:48 that’s pervasive throughout the universe.

02:21:50 Okay, that’s fascinating to think about.

02:21:54 Yeah, there’s not some kind of fundamental,

02:21:56 it’s own thing or something like that.

02:21:59 That is just yet another example of selection.

02:22:01 Yeah, and in the universe that’s intrinsically open,

02:22:06 you want to do that because you generate novelty.

02:22:08 You mentioned something about,

02:22:10 do cellular automata exist outside the human mind

02:22:13 in our little offline conversation?

02:22:17 Why is that an interesting question?

02:22:18 So cellular automata, complexity,

02:22:22 what’s the relationship between complexity

02:22:24 and the human mind and trees falling in the forest?

02:22:28 Infrastructure, so the CA,

02:22:30 so when John von Neumann and Conway and Feynman

02:22:34 were doing CA, it was doing on paper.

02:22:35 CA is cellular automata.

02:22:37 Just drawing them on paper.

02:22:38 How awesome is that, that they were doing cellular automata

02:22:41 on paper and then they were doing it on a computer

02:22:44 that takes like forever to print out anything and program.

02:22:48 Sure.

02:22:49 People are now with the TikTok,

02:22:51 kids these days with the TikTok don’t understand

02:22:54 how amazing it is to just play with cellular automata,

02:22:57 arbitrarily changing the rules as you want,

02:23:00 the initial conditions,

02:23:00 and see the beautiful patterns emerge,

02:23:04 sing with fractals, all of that.

02:23:06 You’ve just given me a brilliant idea.

02:23:07 I wonder if there’s a TikTok account that’s just dedicated

02:23:09 to putting out CA rules and if there isn’t,

02:23:11 we should make one.

02:23:12 100% and that will get.

02:23:14 So we have millions of views.

02:23:16 Millions, yes.

02:23:17 No, it’ll get dozens.

02:23:20 We’ll just have it running.

02:23:21 So look, I kind of, I love CAs.

02:23:29 Yeah, no.

02:23:30 We just have to make one.

02:23:32 I actually, a few years ago,

02:23:34 I made some robots that talk to each other,

02:23:36 chemical robots that played the game of Hex,

02:23:40 invented by John Nash, by doing chemistry.

02:23:42 And they communicated via Twitter,

02:23:44 which were experiments they were doing.

02:23:46 And they had a lookup table of experiments

02:23:49 and robot one said, I’m doing experiment 10.

02:23:51 And the other robot, okay, I’ll do experiment one then.

02:23:53 And they communicated via Twitter.

02:23:55 Publicly or DMs?

02:23:57 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

02:23:58 Can you maybe quickly explain what the game of Hex is?

02:24:01 Yes, so it’s basically a hexagonal board

02:24:04 and you try and basically you color each element

02:24:07 on the board of each hexagon

02:24:08 and you try and get from one side to the other

02:24:10 and the other one tries to block you.

02:24:12 How are they connected?

02:24:13 So what are the robots?

02:24:14 So it’s a chemical.

02:24:16 Yeah, let’s go back.

02:24:17 So there are two robots.

02:24:18 Each robot was doing dye chemistry.

02:24:20 So making RGB, red, green, blue, red, green, blue,

02:24:23 red, green, blue.

02:24:24 And they could just choose from experiments

02:24:26 to do red, green, blue.

02:24:28 Initially I said to my group,

02:24:29 we need to make two chemical robots that play chess.

02:24:31 And my group were like, that’s too hard.

02:24:33 No, go away.

02:24:35 But anyway, so we had the robot.

02:24:36 By the way, people listening to this should probably know

02:24:42 that Lee Cronin is an amazing group of brilliant people.

02:24:46 He’s exceptionally well published.

02:24:48 He’s written a huge number of amazing papers.

02:24:52 Whenever he calls himself stupid

02:24:55 and is a sign of humility,

02:24:57 and I deeply respect that and appreciate it.

02:25:00 So people listening to this should know

02:25:01 this is a world class scientist

02:25:04 who doesn’t take himself seriously,

02:25:05 which I really appreciate and love.

02:25:07 Anywho, talking about serious science,

02:25:11 we’re back to your group rejecting your idea

02:25:16 of chemical robots playing chess via dyes.

02:25:22 So you went to a simpler game of Hex.

02:25:24 Okay, so what else?

02:25:26 The team that did it were brilliant.

02:25:27 I think they still have PTSD from doing it.

02:25:31 Cause I said, this is a workshop.

02:25:32 What I’d often do is I have about 60 people on my team.

02:25:36 And occasionally before lockdown,

02:25:38 I would say, I’m a bit bored.

02:25:40 We’re gonna have a workshop on something.

02:25:41 Who wants to come?

02:25:42 And then basically about 20 people turn up to my office

02:25:44 and I say, we’re gonna do this mad thing.

02:25:46 And then it would just self organize.

02:25:49 And some of them would be like, no, I’m not doing this.

02:25:51 And then you get left with the happy dozen.

02:25:54 And what we did is we built this robot

02:25:56 and doing dye chemistry is really easy.

02:25:57 You can just take two molecules,

02:25:59 react them together and change color.

02:26:00 And what I wanted to do is have a palette

02:26:03 of different molecules.

02:26:04 You can react combinatorially and get different colors.

02:26:07 So you’ve got two robots.

02:26:08 And I went, wouldn’t it be cool

02:26:09 if the robots basically shared

02:26:12 the same list of reactions to do.

02:26:14 And they said, oh, and because of,

02:26:15 then you could do a kind of multi core chemistry.

02:26:18 Like they weren’t,

02:26:19 so you’d have two chemical reactions going on at once

02:26:21 and they could basically outsource the problem.

02:26:23 But they’re sharing the same tape.

02:26:25 Exactly.

02:26:26 Okay.

02:26:26 So robot one would say, I’m gonna do,

02:26:27 I’m gonna do experiment one.

02:26:28 And the other robot says, I’ll do experiment 100.

02:26:30 And then they could cross it off.

02:26:32 But I wanted to make it.

02:26:33 That’s brilliant, by the way.

02:26:34 I wanted to make.

02:26:35 That is genius.

02:26:36 Sorry.

02:26:37 Well, I wanted to make it groovier.

02:26:38 And I said, look, let’s have them competing to make,

02:26:41 so they’re playing a game of hex.

02:26:43 And so when the robot does an experiment

02:26:46 and the more blue the dye,

02:26:48 the more it gets the higher chance it gets

02:26:51 to make the move it wants on the hex board.

02:26:53 So if it gets a red color is like,

02:26:55 it gets down weighted in the other robot.

02:26:57 And so what the robots could do is they play,

02:26:59 each player move.

02:27:01 And cause the fitness function or the optimization function

02:27:03 was to make the color blue,

02:27:05 they started to invent reactions

02:27:09 we didn’t, weren’t on the list.

02:27:11 And they did this by not cleaning

02:27:13 because we made cleaning optional.

02:27:14 So when one robot realized if it didn’t clean its pipes,

02:27:17 it could get blue more quickly.

02:27:18 Yeah.

02:27:19 And the other robot realized that.

02:27:20 So it was like getting dirty as well.

02:27:21 And they, they.

02:27:22 Unintended consequences of super intelligence.

02:27:26 Okay.

02:27:27 But.

02:27:28 That was the game.

02:27:28 And we.

02:27:29 Communicating through Twitter though.

02:27:30 They were, they were doing it through Twitter

02:27:31 and Twitter bland them a couple of times.

02:27:33 I said, come on, you’ve got a couple of robots

02:27:34 doing chemistry.

02:27:35 It’s really cool.

02:27:36 Stop banning them.

02:27:37 Yeah.

02:27:38 But in the end they had, we had to take them off Twitter

02:27:39 and they just communicated via a server.

02:27:41 Cause it was just, there were people saying,

02:27:43 you can still find it.

02:27:43 Cronin lab one and Cronin lab two on Twitter.

02:27:46 And it was like, make move, wait, you know, mix A and B,

02:27:49 wait 10 seconds.

02:27:51 Yeah.

02:27:52 Answer blue, you know.

02:27:53 I really find it super compelling

02:27:56 that you would have a chemical entity

02:28:00 that’s communicating with the world.

02:28:03 That was one of the things I want to do

02:28:04 with my origin of life reaction, right?

02:28:05 Is basically have a, have a reactor.

02:28:10 That’s basically just randomly enumerating

02:28:12 for chemical space and have some kind of cycle

02:28:14 and then read out what the molecules reading out

02:28:17 using a mass spectrometer and then convert that to text

02:28:20 and publish it on Twitter and then wait until it says

02:28:23 I’m alive.

02:28:24 I reckon that would get, I reckon that,

02:28:27 that Twitter account would get a lot of followers.

02:28:28 Yeah.

02:28:29 And I’m still trying to convince my group

02:28:30 that we should just make an origin of life Twitter account.

02:28:32 Where it’s going blue and it’s like, hello, testing.

02:28:36 I’m here.

02:28:37 Well, I’ll share it.

02:28:38 I like it.

02:28:39 I particularly enjoy this idea

02:28:42 of a non human entity communicating with the world

02:28:46 via human designed social network.

02:28:48 It’s quite a, quite a beautiful idea.

02:28:55 How we were talking about CA’s existing

02:28:59 outside the human mind.

02:29:00 Yeah.

02:29:01 So I really admire Stephen Wolfram.

02:29:02 I think he’s a genius, clearly a genius

02:29:05 and trapped in is actually,

02:29:06 it’s like a problem with being so smart

02:29:08 is you get trapped in your own mind, right?

02:29:11 And I’ve, I tried to actually,

02:29:13 I tried to convince Stephen that assembly theory

02:29:15 wasn’t nonsense.

02:29:16 He was like, no, it’s just nonsense.

02:29:17 I was a little bit sad by that.

02:29:18 So nonsense applied,

02:29:20 even if it applied to the simplest construct

02:29:22 of a one dimensional cellular automata, for example.

02:29:25 Yeah, yeah.

02:29:25 Well, I mean, actually,

02:29:26 maybe I’m doing myself a bit too down.

02:29:28 It was just as a theory was coming through

02:29:30 and I didn’t really know how to explain it,

02:29:33 but we are going to use assembly theory

02:29:35 and CA’s in cellular automata,

02:29:36 but I wanted to,

02:29:38 what I was really curious about is why people marvel.

02:29:42 I mean, you marvel CA’s and their complexity.

02:29:44 And I said, well, hang on that complexity is baked in

02:29:47 because if you play the game of life in a CA,

02:29:50 you have to run it on a computer.

02:29:52 You have to have a,

02:29:53 you have to do a number of operations,

02:29:55 put in the boundary conditions.

02:29:57 So is it surprising that you get this structure out?

02:29:59 Is it manufactured by the boundary conditions?

02:30:02 And it is interesting because I think

02:30:06 a cellular automata running them

02:30:10 is teaching me something about

02:30:11 what real numbers are and aren’t.

02:30:14 I haven’t quite got there yet.

02:30:15 I was playing on the airplane coming over.

02:30:16 I’m just realized,

02:30:17 I have no idea what real numbers are really.

02:30:20 And I was like, well,

02:30:20 I do actually have some notion of what real numbers are.

02:30:24 And I think thinking about real numbers as functions

02:30:28 rather than numbers is more appropriate.

02:30:30 And then if you then apply that to CA’s,

02:30:33 then you’re saying, well, actually,

02:30:36 why am I seeing this complexity in this rule?

02:30:39 Is it, you know, is it,

02:30:42 you’ve got this deterministic system

02:30:44 and yet you get this incredible structure coming out.

02:30:48 Well, isn’t that what you’d get with any real number

02:30:51 as you apply it as a function

02:30:54 and you’re trying to read it out to an arbitrary position?

02:30:58 And I wonder if CA’s are just helping me,

02:31:00 well, my misunderstanding of CA’s

02:31:02 might be helping me understand them

02:31:03 in terms of real numbers.

02:31:04 I don’t know what you think.

02:31:05 Yeah, well, the functions,

02:31:07 but the devil’s in the function.

02:31:11 It’s like, which is the function

02:31:13 that’s generating your real number.

02:31:16 Like that, it seems like it’s very important

02:31:20 the specific algorithm of that function

02:31:22 because some lead to something super trivial,

02:31:25 some lead to something that’s all chaotic

02:31:27 and some lead to things that are just walked

02:31:30 that fine line of complexity and structure.

02:31:35 I think we agree.

02:31:36 So let’s take it back a second.

02:31:37 So take the logistic map or something, logistic equation,

02:31:40 where you have this equation,

02:31:42 which is you don’t know what’s gonna happen at n plus one,

02:31:46 but once you’ve done n plus one, you know full time,

02:31:48 you can’t predict it.

02:31:50 For me, CA’s and logistic equation feel similar.

02:31:53 And I think what’s incredibly interesting

02:31:57 and I share your kind of wonder at running a CA,

02:32:03 but also I’m saying, well,

02:32:05 what is it about the boundary conditions

02:32:06 and the way I’m running that calculation?

02:32:08 So in my group, with my team,

02:32:10 we actually made a chemical CA.

02:32:12 We made Game of Life.

02:32:13 We actually made a physical grid.

02:32:15 I haven’t been able to publish this paper.

02:32:16 It’s been trapped in purgatory for a long time,

02:32:18 but it might be about.

02:32:19 Yeah.

02:32:20 You wrote it up as a paper,

02:32:21 how to do a chemical formulation of the Game of Life,

02:32:23 which is played.

02:32:23 We made a chemical computer and little cells.

02:32:25 And I was playing Game of Life.

02:32:26 With the BZ reactions,

02:32:28 each cell would pulse on and off, on and off, on and off.

02:32:31 We have little stirrer bars and we have little gates.

02:32:34 And we actually played Conway’s Game of Life in there.

02:32:37 And we got structures in that.

02:32:38 We got structures in that game from the chemistry

02:32:41 that you wouldn’t expect from the actual CA.

02:32:44 So that was kind of cool in that.

02:32:46 Cause they’re interacting outside of the cells more.

02:32:50 So what’s happening is you’re getting noise.

02:32:52 So the thing is that you’ve got this BZ reaction

02:32:55 that gives on off, on off, on off,

02:32:56 but there’s also a wake

02:32:58 and those wakes constructively interfere

02:33:00 or in such a non trivial way that’s non deterministic.

02:33:07 And the non determinism in the system

02:33:11 gives very rich dynamics.

02:33:12 And I was wondering if I could physically

02:33:14 make a chemical computer with this CA

02:33:18 that gives me something different.

02:33:20 I can’t get in a silicon representation of a CA

02:33:25 where all the states are clean.

02:33:27 Cause you don’t have the noise trailing

02:33:29 into the next round.

02:33:30 You just have the state.

02:33:32 So the paper in particular,

02:33:33 so that’s just a beautiful idea to use a chemical computer

02:33:37 to construct the cellular automaton,

02:33:39 the famous one of game of life.

02:33:41 But it’s also interesting.

02:33:42 And it’s a really interesting scientific question

02:33:45 of whether some kind of random perturbations

02:33:48 or some source of randomness

02:33:51 can have a significant constructive effect

02:33:58 on the complexity of the system.

02:34:00 And indeed, I mean, whether it’s random

02:34:03 or just non deterministic

02:34:04 and can we bake in that non determinism at the beginning?

02:34:08 I wonder what is the,

02:34:10 I’m trying to think of what is the encoding space.

02:34:12 The encoding space is pretty big.

02:34:14 We have 49 stirrups of 49 cells,

02:34:19 49 chem bits all connected to one another

02:34:22 and like an analog computer,

02:34:23 but being read out discreetly as the BZ reaction.

02:34:27 So just to say the BZ reaction is a chemical oscillator.

02:34:30 And what happened in each cell

02:34:31 is it goes between red and blue.

02:34:33 So two Russians discovered it,

02:34:34 Belouzov and Sapkinsky.

02:34:36 I think Belouzov first proposed it

02:34:38 and everyone said, you’re crazy.

02:34:39 It breaks the second law.

02:34:40 And Sapkinsky said, no, it doesn’t break the second law.

02:34:42 It’s consuming a fuel.

02:34:45 And so, and then, and it’s like,

02:34:47 there’s a lot of chemistry hidden

02:34:50 in the Russian literature actually,

02:34:52 because Russians just wrote it in Russian.

02:34:54 They didn’t publish it in English speaking journals.

02:34:56 It’s heartbreaking actually.

02:34:57 Well, it’s sad and it’s great that it’s there, right?

02:35:01 It’s not lost.

02:35:02 I’m sure we will find a way of translating it properly.

02:35:05 Well, the silver lining slash greater sadness

02:35:08 of all of this is there’s probably ideas

02:35:11 in English speaking.

02:35:12 Like there’s ideas in certain disciplines

02:35:16 that if discovered by other disciplines

02:35:20 would crack open some of the biggest mysteries

02:35:22 in those disciplines.

02:35:23 Like computer science, for example,

02:35:26 is trying to solve problems

02:35:30 like nobody else has ever tried to solve problems.

02:35:32 As if it’s not already been all addressed

02:35:35 in cognitive science and psychology,

02:35:37 in mathematics, in physics,

02:35:39 in just whatever you want to, economics even.

02:35:42 But if you look into that literature,

02:35:44 you might be able to discover some beautiful ideas.

02:35:47 Obviously Russian is an interesting case of that.

02:35:51 It’s because there’s a loss in translation,

02:35:53 but you said there’s a source of fuel, a source of energy.

02:35:57 Yeah, yeah.

02:35:58 So the BZ reaction, you have an acid in there

02:36:00 called malonic acid.

02:36:02 And what happens is it’s basically like a battery

02:36:07 that powers it and it loses CO2.

02:36:09 So decarboxylates, it’s just a chemical reaction.

02:36:12 What that means we have to do is continuously feed

02:36:14 or we just keep the BZ reaction going

02:36:16 in a long enough time.

02:36:18 So it’s like it’s reversible in time.

02:36:22 But only like, yeah.

02:36:23 But only like, but it’s fascinating.

02:36:26 I mean, the team that did it,

02:36:27 I’m really proud of their persistence.

02:36:29 We made a chemical computer and it can solve

02:36:33 little problems.

02:36:34 It can solve traveling salesman problems actually.

02:36:36 Nice.

02:36:37 But like I say, it’s.

02:36:38 But not any faster than a regular computer.

02:36:41 Is there something you can do?

02:36:43 Maybe, I’m not sure.

02:36:46 I think we can come up with a way of solving problems,

02:36:49 also really complex, hard ones,

02:36:54 because it’s an analog computer and we can,

02:36:56 it can energy minimize really quickly.

02:36:59 It doesn’t have to basically go through every element

02:37:01 in the matrix, like flip it, it just reads out.

02:37:05 So we could actually do Monte Carlo

02:37:07 by just shaking the box.

02:37:10 It’s literally a box shaker.

02:37:12 You don’t actually have to encode the shaking of the box

02:37:14 in a silicon memory and then just shuffle everything around.

02:37:17 Yeah, and you can.

02:37:18 It’s analog, it’s natural.

02:37:19 So it’s an organic computer.

02:37:23 Yeah, yeah.

02:37:24 So I was playing around with this

02:37:25 and I was kind of annoying some of my colleagues

02:37:27 and wondering if we could get to chemical supremacy

02:37:29 like quantum supremacy.

02:37:31 And I kind of calculated how big the grid has to be

02:37:36 so we can actually start to solve problems faster

02:37:38 than a silicon computer.

02:37:40 But I’m not willing to state how that is yet

02:37:43 because I’m probably wrong.

02:37:44 It’s not that it’s any top secret thing

02:37:46 is I want, I think I can make a chemical computer

02:37:49 that can solve optimization problems faster

02:37:51 than the silicon computer.

02:37:54 That’s fascinating.

02:37:55 But then you’re unsure how big that has to be.

02:37:57 Yeah, I think, I mean.

02:37:58 It might be a big box, hard to shake.

02:38:00 It might be exactly a big box, hard to shake

02:38:03 and basically a bit sloppy.

02:38:05 Did we answer the question about

02:38:08 do cellular atomic exists outside the mind?

02:38:11 We didn’t, but I would posit that they don’t.

02:38:14 And I, but I think minds can, well.

02:38:17 So the mind is fundamental.

02:38:19 What’s the, why?

02:38:21 Well, I mean, sorry, let’s go back.

02:38:23 So as a physical phenomena, do CAs exist

02:38:26 in physical reality, right?

02:38:28 I would say they probably don’t exist

02:38:30 outside the human mind, but now we’ve constructed them.

02:38:33 They exist in computer memories.

02:38:34 They exist in my lab.

02:38:35 They exist on paper.

02:38:37 So they are, they emerge from the human mind.

02:38:40 I’m just interested in, because Stephen Wolfram likes CAs,

02:38:43 a lot of people like CAs and likes to think of them

02:38:46 as minimal computational elements.

02:38:49 I’m just saying, well, do they exist in reality

02:38:52 or are they a representation of a simple machine

02:38:54 that’s just very elegant to implement?

02:38:57 So it’s a platonic question, I guess.

02:38:59 I mean, it’s, there’s initial conditions.

02:39:03 There’s a memory in the system.

02:39:05 There are simple rules that dictate

02:39:07 the evolution of the system.

02:39:09 So what exists?

02:39:10 The idea, the rules, the.

02:39:12 Yeah, people are using CAs as models

02:39:15 for things in reality to say, hey, look,

02:39:18 you can do this thing in a CA.

02:39:21 And my, when I see this, I’m saying, oh, that’s cool.

02:39:24 But what does that tell me about reality?

02:39:26 Where’s the CA in space?

02:39:27 Oh, I see.

02:39:28 Well, right.

02:39:29 It’s a mathematical object.

02:39:30 So for people who don’t know cellular automata,

02:39:33 there’s usually a grid, whether it’s one dimensional,

02:39:35 two dimensional, or three dimensional.

02:39:36 And it evolves by simple local rules,

02:39:39 like you die or are born if the neighbors are alive or dead.

02:39:44 And it turns out if you have,

02:39:46 with certain kinds of initial conditions

02:39:51 and with certain kinds of very simple rules,

02:39:53 you can create like arbitrarily complex

02:39:56 and beautiful systems.

02:39:57 And to me, whether drugs are involved or not,

02:40:03 I can sit back for hours and enjoy the mystery of it,

02:40:09 how such complexity can emerge as it gives me almost like,

02:40:14 you know, people talk about religious experiences.

02:40:17 It gives me a sense that you get to have a glimpse

02:40:23 at the origin of this whole thing.

02:40:26 Whatever is creating this complexity from such simplicity

02:40:33 is the very thing that brought my mind to life,

02:40:38 this me, the human, our human civilization.

02:40:42 And yes, those constructs are pretty trivial.

02:40:49 I mean, that’s part of their magic

02:40:50 is even in this trivial framework,

02:40:54 you could see the emergence,

02:40:56 or especially in this trivial framework,

02:40:58 you could see the emergence of complexity from simplicity.

02:41:01 I guess what Lee, you’re saying is that this is not,

02:41:05 you know, this is highly unlike systems

02:41:10 we see in the physical world,

02:41:13 even though they probably carry some of the same magic,

02:41:17 like mechanistically, that’s all.

02:41:19 I mean, I’m saying that the operating system

02:41:22 that a CA has to exist on is quite complex.

02:41:26 And so I wonder if you’re getting the complexity

02:41:28 out of the CA from the boundary conditions

02:41:30 of the operating system, the underlying digital computer.

02:41:33 Oh, wow, those are some strong words against CAs then.

02:41:36 I didn’t realize. Not against.

02:41:37 I mean, I’m in love with CAs as well.

02:41:40 I’m just saying they aren’t as trivial as people think.

02:41:44 They are incredible.

02:41:45 To get to that richness,

02:41:47 you have to iterate billions of times,

02:41:51 and you need a display, and you need a math coprocessor,

02:41:54 and you need a von Neumann machine

02:41:57 based on a Turing machine

02:41:59 of digital error correction and states.

02:42:01 Wow, to think that for the simplicity of a grid,

02:42:05 you’re basically saying a grid is not simple.

02:42:08 Yeah.

02:42:09 It requires incredible complexity to bring a grid to life.

02:42:12 Yeah.

02:42:15 Yeah, that’s it.

02:42:16 Well, then what is simple?

02:42:17 That’s all I wanted to say.

02:42:18 I agree with you with the wonder of CAs, I just think.

02:42:20 But remember, we take so much for granted

02:42:22 what the CA is resting on.

02:42:24 Because von Neumann and Feynman weren’t showing,

02:42:28 weren’t seeing these elaborate structures.

02:42:30 They could not get that far.

02:42:33 Yeah, but that’s the limitation of their mind.

02:42:34 Yeah, yeah, exactly.

02:42:35 The limitation of their pencil.

02:42:37 But I think the question is

02:42:40 whether the essential elements of the cellular automata

02:42:47 is present without all the complexities

02:42:50 required to build a computer.

02:42:52 And my intuition, the reason I find it incredible

02:42:56 is that, yeah, my intuition is yes.

02:42:58 It might look different.

02:43:00 There might not be a grid like structure,

02:43:05 but local interactions operating under simple rules

02:43:09 and resulting in multi hierarchical complex structures

02:43:14 feels like a thing that doesn’t require a computer.

02:43:17 I agree, but coming back to von Neumann and Feynman

02:43:21 and Wolfram, their minds, the non trivial minds

02:43:24 to create those architectures and do it

02:43:26 and to put on those state transitions.

02:43:30 And I think that’s something

02:43:32 that’s really incredibly interesting

02:43:34 that is understanding how the human mind

02:43:38 builds those state transition machines.

02:43:41 I could see how deeply in love

02:43:43 with the idea of memory you are.

02:43:45 So it’s like how much of E equals MC squared

02:43:51 is more than an equation.

02:43:53 It has Albert Einstein in it.

02:43:57 You’re saying you can’t just say this is a,

02:44:00 like the equations of physics are a really good

02:44:06 simple capture of a physical phenomenon.

02:44:10 It is also, that equation has the memory of the humans.

02:44:15 Absolutely, absolutely, yeah.

02:44:18 But I don’t, I don’t know if you’re implying this.

02:44:21 I don’t, that’s a beautiful idea,

02:44:25 but I don’t know if I’m comfortable

02:44:27 with that sort of diminishing the power of that equation.

02:44:31 No, no, it enhances it.

02:44:31 Because it’s built on the shoulders, it enhances it.

02:44:33 I think it enhances it, it’s not,

02:44:35 that equation is a minimal compressed representation

02:44:38 of reality, right?

02:44:39 We can use machine learning or Max Tegmark’s AI Feynman

02:44:43 to find lots of solutions for gravity,

02:44:45 but isn’t it wonderful that the laws that we do find

02:44:47 are the maximally compressed representations?

02:44:50 Yeah, but that representation, you can now give it as,

02:44:54 I guess the universe has the memory of Einstein

02:44:56 with that representation.

02:44:58 But then you can now give it as a gift for free.

02:45:00 Yeah, yeah, it’s low memory.

02:45:01 To other alien civilizations.

02:45:02 Einstein had to go through a lot of pain to get there,

02:45:03 but it’s low memory.

02:45:04 So, I say that physics and chemistry and biology

02:45:07 are the same discipline.

02:45:08 They’re just physics, laws in physics.

02:45:11 There’s no such thing as a law in physics.

02:45:13 It’s just low memory stuff.

02:45:15 Because you’ve got low memory stuff,

02:45:16 you can, things reoccur quickly.

02:45:19 As you can get, build in more memory,

02:45:21 you get to chemistry, so things become more contingent.

02:45:24 When you get to biology, more contingent still,

02:45:26 and then technology.

02:45:27 So, the more memory you need,

02:45:28 the more your laws are local.

02:45:31 That’s all I’m saying.

02:45:32 And the less memory, the more the laws are universal,

02:45:35 because they’re not laws.

02:45:36 They are just low memory states.

02:45:40 We have to talk about a thing you’ve kind of mentioned

02:45:44 already a bunch of times,

02:45:45 but doing computation through chemistry,

02:45:49 chemical based computation.

02:45:51 I’ve seen you refer to it as in a sexy title

02:45:56 of Kemputation, Kemputation.

02:46:00 So, what is computation?

02:46:02 What is chemical based computation?

02:46:06 Okay, so Kemputation is a name I gave

02:46:09 to the process of building a state machine

02:46:12 to make any molecule physically in the lab.

02:46:15 And so, as a chemist, chemists make molecules by hand.

02:46:19 And they’re quite hard.

02:46:22 The chemists have a lot of tacit knowledge,

02:46:25 a lot of ambiguity.

02:46:26 It’s not possible to go uniformly to the literature

02:46:29 and read a recipe to make a molecule,

02:46:32 and then go and make it in the lab every time.

02:46:35 Some recipes are better than others,

02:46:37 but they all assume some knowledge.

02:46:43 And it’s not universal what that is.

02:46:44 Like, so it’s carried from human to human.

02:46:49 Some of that implicit knowledge.

02:46:51 And you’re saying, can we remove the human

02:46:52 from the patient?

02:46:53 Can we like a program?

02:46:55 Okay, well, by the way, what is a state machine?

02:46:58 So a state machine is a, I suppose,

02:47:01 a object either abstract or mechanical

02:47:05 where you can do a unit operation on it

02:47:10 and flick it from one state to another.

02:47:12 So a turnstile would be a good example of a state machine.

02:47:15 There’s some kinds of states

02:47:17 and some kind of transitions between states.

02:47:19 And it’s very formal in nature

02:47:23 in terms of like it’s precise,

02:47:25 how you’re doing those transitions.

02:47:25 Yes, you can mathematically precisely

02:47:28 describe a state machine.

02:47:29 So, I mean, a very simple Boolean gates

02:47:33 are a very good way of building

02:47:35 kind of logic based state machines.

02:47:38 Obviously a Turing machine,

02:47:39 the concept of a Turing machine

02:47:41 where you have a tape and a read head

02:47:43 and a series of rules in a table

02:47:46 and you would basically look at what’s on the tape.

02:47:49 And if you’re shifting the tape from left to right,

02:47:51 and if you see a zero or one,

02:47:53 you look in your lookup table and say,

02:47:54 right, I’ve seen a zero and a one.

02:47:57 I then do, I then respond to that.

02:48:01 So in the turnstile would be,

02:48:03 is there a human being pushing the turnstile

02:48:06 in direction clockwise?

02:48:09 If yes, I will open, let them go.

02:48:11 If it’s anticlockwise, no.

02:48:12 So yeah, so a state machine has some labels

02:48:15 and a transition diagram.

02:48:17 So you’re looking to come up with a chemical computer

02:48:22 to form state machines to create molecules,

02:48:25 or what’s the chicken and the egg?

02:48:29 So computation is not a chemical computer

02:48:31 because we talked a few moments

02:48:32 about actually doing computations with chemicals.

02:48:35 What I’m now saying is I want to use state machines

02:48:37 to transform chemicals.

02:48:39 And so build chemicals programmatically.

02:48:42 Yeah, I mean, I get in trouble saying this.

02:48:44 I said to my group, oh, I shouldn’t say it

02:48:47 because it’s, but I said, look, we should make the crack bot.

02:48:49 Is it in the crack robot?

02:48:51 The robot that makes crack.

02:48:52 The crack bot?

02:48:52 Oh, oh, oh, oh, crack bot.

02:48:55 The robot that makes crack,

02:48:56 but maybe we should scrub this from, but.

02:49:00 Or, well, so maybe you can educate me

02:49:03 on breaking bad with like math, right?

02:49:06 Yeah, so in breaking bad.

02:49:07 You want to make basically some kind of mix

02:49:12 of ex machina and breaking bad.

02:49:15 No, I don’t.

02:49:16 I don’t.

02:49:17 For the record, I don’t, but I said.

02:49:17 No, you don’t.

02:49:18 I said, that’s what I’m going to do

02:49:19 once you release the papers.

02:49:23 I shaved my head and I’m going to live a life of crime.

02:49:28 Anyway, I’m sorry.

02:49:29 No, no.

02:49:30 So yeah, let’s get back to, so indeed,

02:49:33 it is about making drugs, but importantly,

02:49:35 making important drugs, so let’s.

02:49:38 All drugs matter.

02:49:39 Yeah, but let’s go back.

02:49:41 So the basic thesis is chemistry is very analog.

02:49:46 There is no state machine.

02:49:48 And I wandered into the, through the paper walls

02:49:52 in the Japanese house a few years ago and said,

02:49:55 okay, hey, organic chemist, why are you doing this analog?

02:49:58 They said, well, chemistry is really hard.

02:50:00 You can’t automate it, it’s impossible.

02:50:03 I said, but is it impossible?

02:50:05 They said, yeah.

02:50:06 And they said, you know, I got the impression

02:50:07 they were saying it’s magic.

02:50:09 And so when people tell me things are magic,

02:50:12 it’s like, no, no, they can’t be magic.

02:50:14 Right, so let’s break this down.

02:50:15 And so what I did is I went to my group one day

02:50:19 about eight years ago and said, hey guys,

02:50:21 I’ve written this new programming language for you.

02:50:24 And so everything is clear.

02:50:26 And you know, you have to, you’re not allowed to

02:50:28 just wander around the lab willy nilly.

02:50:30 You have to pick up things in order,

02:50:31 go to the balance of the right time and all this stuff.

02:50:34 And they looked at me as if I was insane

02:50:36 and basically kicked me out of the lab and said,

02:50:37 no, don’t do that, we’re not doing that.

02:50:39 And I said, okay.

02:50:40 So I went back the next day and said,

02:50:43 I’m gonna find some money so we can make cool robots

02:50:45 do chemical reactions.

02:50:46 And everyone went, that’s cool.

02:50:48 And so in that process.

02:50:51 The first we tried to convert the humans to become robots

02:50:54 and next you agree you might as well just create the robots.

02:50:57 Yes, but so in that, the formalization process.

02:51:00 Yeah, so what I did is I said, look, chemical,

02:51:02 to make a molecule, you need to do four things abstractly.

02:51:04 I want to make a chemical Turing machine.

02:51:07 Cause a Turing machine, you think about this,

02:51:08 imagine a Turing machine.

02:51:10 Turing machine is the ultimate abstraction of a computation

02:51:14 because it’s been shown by Turing and others

02:51:17 that basically a universal Turing machine

02:51:19 should be able to do all computations that you can imagine.

02:51:23 It’s like, wow, why don’t I think of a Turing machine

02:51:25 for chemistry?

02:51:26 Let’s think of a magic robot that can make any molecule.

02:51:29 Let’s think about that for a second.

02:51:31 Okay, great.

02:51:32 How do we then implement it?

02:51:33 And I think it’s right.

02:51:34 So what is the abstraction?

02:51:35 So to make any molecule, you have to do a reaction.

02:51:39 So you have to put reagents together, do a reaction

02:51:41 in a flask typically.

02:51:43 Then you’re after the reaction,

02:51:44 you have to stop the reactions.

02:51:45 You do what’s called a workup.

02:51:47 So whatever, cool it down, add some liquid to it, extract.

02:51:51 So then after you do the workup, you separate.

02:51:53 So you then remove the molecules, separate them all out.

02:51:55 And then the final step is purification.

02:51:58 So reaction, workup, separate, purify.

02:52:01 So this is basically exactly like a Turing machine

02:52:05 where you have your tape, you have your tape head,

02:52:08 you have some rules, and then you run it.

02:52:10 So I thought, cool.

02:52:11 I went to all the chemists and said, look,

02:52:13 chemistry isn’t that hard.

02:52:15 Reaction, workup, separation, purification.

02:52:18 Do that in cycles, forever, for any molecule,

02:52:20 all the chemistry, done.

02:52:23 And they said, chemistry is that hard.

02:52:26 I said, but just in principle.

02:52:28 And I got a few very enlightened people to say,

02:52:30 yeah, okay, in principle, but it ain’t gonna work.

02:52:33 And this was in about 2013, 2014.

02:52:36 And I found myself going to an architecture conference

02:52:39 almost by accident.

02:52:40 It’s like, why am I at this random conference

02:52:42 on architecture?

02:52:44 And that was because I published a paper

02:52:45 on inorganic architecture.

02:52:47 And they said, come to architecture conference.

02:52:49 But the inorganic architecture is nano architecture.

02:52:51 It’s not, and I went, okay.

02:52:53 And then I found these guys at the conference,

02:52:54 3D printing ping pong balls and shapes.

02:52:57 And this is through it.

02:52:58 3D printing was cool.

02:52:59 And I was like, this is ridiculous.

02:53:00 Why are you 3D printing ping pong balls?

02:53:01 And I gave them a whole load of abuse

02:53:03 like I normally do when I first meet people,

02:53:05 how to win friends and influence people.

02:53:07 And then I was like, oh my God, you guys are geniuses.

02:53:10 And so I got from, they were a bit confused

02:53:12 because I was calling them idiots

02:53:13 and then call them geniuses.

02:53:14 It’s like, will you come to my lab

02:53:16 and we’re gonna build a robot to do chemistry

02:53:18 with a 3D printer.

02:53:19 And I said, oh, that’s cool, all right.

02:53:20 So I had them come to the lab

02:53:22 and we started to 3D print test tubes.

02:53:24 So you imagine, you know, 3D print a bottle

02:53:26 and then use the same gantry to basically,

02:53:30 rather than to squirt out a plastic out of a nozzle,

02:53:34 have a little syringe and jet chemicals in.

02:53:36 So we had the 3D printer that could simultaneously

02:53:38 print the test tube and then put chemicals

02:53:40 into the test tube.

02:53:42 And then.

02:53:42 Wow, so it’s really end to end.

02:53:44 Yeah, I was like, that would be cool

02:53:45 because they’ve got G code to do it all.

02:53:47 And I was like, that’s cool.

02:53:48 So I got my group doing this and I developed it a bit

02:53:50 and I realized that we could take those unit operations.

02:53:54 And we built a whole bunch of pumps and valves.

02:53:57 And I realized that I could basically take the literature

02:54:00 and I made the first version of the computer in 2016, 17.

02:54:05 I made some architectural decisions.

02:54:07 So I designed the pumps and valves in my group.

02:54:09 I did all the electronics in my group.

02:54:10 They were brilliant.

02:54:12 I cannot pay tribute to my group enough in doing this.

02:54:15 They were just brilliant.

02:54:16 And there were some poor souls there that said,

02:54:18 Lee, why are you making us design electronics?

02:54:21 I’m like, well, because I don’t understand it.

02:54:24 They’re like, so you’re making us design stuff

02:54:26 because you don’t understand.

02:54:26 It’s like, yeah, it’s like, but can we not just buy some?

02:54:29 I said, well, we can, but then I don’t understand

02:54:31 how to, you know, what bus they’re gonna use

02:54:34 and there’s serial ports and all this stuff.

02:54:36 I just wanted, and I made, I came up with a decision

02:54:39 to design a bunch of pumps and valves

02:54:41 and use power of the ethernet.

02:54:42 So they’ve got one cable for power and data,

02:54:45 plug them all in, plug them all into a router

02:54:48 and then I made the state machine.

02:54:51 And there was a couple of cool things I did.

02:54:53 Oh, they did actually.

02:54:55 We got the abstraction.

02:54:57 So reaction, workup, separation, purification.

02:55:02 And then I made the decision to do it in batch.

02:55:06 Now it’s in batch.

02:55:07 All chemistry had been digitized before apparently,

02:55:10 and once it’s been done, but everyone been doing it in flow

02:55:13 and flow is continuous and there are infinities everywhere

02:55:16 and you have to just, and I realized

02:55:19 that I could actually make a state machine

02:55:20 where I basically put stuff in the reactor,

02:55:24 turn it up from one state to another state,

02:55:26 stop it and just read it out.

02:55:28 And okay, and I was kind of bitching

02:55:30 at electrical engineers saying, you have it easy.

02:55:32 You don’t have to clean out the electrons, you know.

02:55:34 Electrons don’t leave a big mess.

02:55:36 They leave some EM waste.

02:55:37 But in my state machine I built in cleaning.

02:55:39 So it’s like, we do all the operation

02:55:41 and then it cleans the backbone and then can do it again.

02:55:43 So there’s no, so what we managed to do

02:55:46 over a couple of years is develop the hardware,

02:55:49 develop the state machine.

02:55:50 And we encoded three molecules.

02:55:52 We did three, the first three, we did nitole,

02:55:54 a sleeping drug, rafinamide, antiseizure and Viagra.

02:55:57 You know, and I could make jokes on the paper.

02:55:59 It’s a hard problem, blah, blah, blah, blah.

02:56:02 That’s very good.

02:56:04 And then in the next one, what we did is said, okay,

02:56:06 my poor organic chemist said, look, Lee,

02:56:09 we’ve worked with you this long.

02:56:11 We’ve made a robot that looks like

02:56:12 it’s gonna take our jobs away.

02:56:14 And not just take our jobs away, what we love in the lab,

02:56:19 but now we have to become programmers.

02:56:20 But we’re not even good programmers.

02:56:22 We just have to spend ages writing lines of code

02:56:25 that are boring and it’s not as elegant.

02:56:27 I went, you’re right.

02:56:28 So then, but I knew because I had this abstraction

02:56:32 and I knew that there was language,

02:56:34 I could suddenly develop a state machine

02:56:36 that would interpret the language,

02:56:37 which was lossy and ambiguous and populate my abstraction.

02:56:42 So I built a chemical programming language

02:56:44 that is actually gonna be recursively enumerable.

02:56:46 It’s gonna be a Turing complete language actually,

02:56:48 which is kind of cool, which means it’s formally verifiable.

02:56:51 So where we are now is we can now read the literature

02:56:55 using a bit of natural language processing.

02:56:56 It’s not the best.

02:56:57 There are many other groups have done a better job,

02:56:59 but we can use that language reading

02:57:01 to populate the state machine and basically add, subtract.

02:57:05 We got about a number of primitives that we,

02:57:09 basically program loops that we dovetail together

02:57:14 and we can make any molecule with it.

02:57:15 Okay, so that’s the kind of program synthesis.

02:57:18 So you start at like literally,

02:57:19 you’re talking about like a paper,

02:57:21 like a scientific paper that’s being read.

02:57:25 Yeah.

02:57:26 So natural language processing,

02:57:27 extracting some kind of details about chemical reactions

02:57:33 and the chemical molecules and compounds involved.

02:57:38 And then that, in GPT terms,

02:57:43 serves as a prompt for the program synthesis

02:57:47 that’s kind of trivial right now.

02:57:49 There you have a bunch of different like for loops

02:57:51 and so on that creates a program in this chemical language

02:57:56 that can then be interpreted by the chemical computer,

02:58:00 the computer.

02:58:01 Yeah, computer, that’s the word.

02:58:03 Computer, yeah.

02:58:05 Everything sounds better in your British accent,

02:58:07 but it’s, I love it.

02:58:09 So the, into the computer and that’s able to then

02:58:12 basically be a 3D printer for these, for molecules.

02:58:17 Yeah, I wouldn’t call it a 3D printer.

02:58:18 I would call it a universal chemical reaction system

02:58:21 because 3D printing gives the wrong impression, but yeah.

02:58:23 And it purifies.

02:58:25 And the nice thing is that that code now that we call it,

02:58:28 the KyDL code is really interesting because now,

02:58:34 so computation, what is computation?

02:58:36 Computation is what computing is to mathematics, I think.

02:58:41 Computation is the process of taking chemical code

02:58:44 and some input reagents and making the same molecule,

02:58:47 making the molecule reproducibly every time without fail.

02:58:52 What is computation?

02:58:53 It’s the process of using a program

02:58:55 to take some input conditions

02:58:57 and give you an output same every time, right, reliably.

02:59:02 So the problem is, now maybe you can push back

02:59:05 and correct me on this.

02:59:07 So I know biology is messy.

02:59:09 My question is how messy is chemistry?

02:59:12 So the, if we use the analogy of a computer,

02:59:15 it’s easier to make computation in a computer very precise,

02:59:21 that it’s repeatable and makes errors almost never.

02:59:26 If it does the exact same way over and over

02:59:28 and over and over.

02:59:29 What about chemistry?

02:59:30 Is there messiness in the whole thing?

02:59:32 Can that be somehow leveraged?

02:59:33 Can that be controlled?

02:59:34 Can it be that removed,

02:59:36 do we wanna remove it from the system?

02:59:38 Oh, yes and no, right.

02:59:39 Is there messiness?

02:59:42 There is messiness because chemistry is like,

02:59:45 you’re doing reactions on billions of molecules

02:59:49 and they don’t always work,

02:59:50 but you’ve got purification there.

02:59:52 And so what we found is at the beginning,

02:59:54 everyone said it can’t work.

02:59:55 It’s gonna be too messy.

02:59:56 It will just fail.

02:59:58 And I said, but you managed to get chemistry

03:00:00 to work in the lab.

03:00:00 Are you magic?

03:00:01 Are you doing something?

03:00:02 So I would say, now go back to the first ever computer

03:00:05 or the ENIAC, 5 million soldered joints,

03:00:09 400,000 valves that are exploding all the time.

03:00:12 Was that, would you have gone, okay, that’s messy.

03:00:16 So we’ve got the,

03:00:18 have we got the equivalent of the ENIAC in my lab?

03:00:21 We’ve got 15 computers in the lab now.

03:00:23 And they, are they unreliable?

03:00:24 Yeah, they fall apart here and there,

03:00:26 but are they getting better really quickly?

03:00:29 Yeah.

03:00:30 Are they now able to reliably make more,

03:00:32 are we at the point in the lab

03:00:33 where there are some molecules

03:00:34 we would rather make on the computer

03:00:37 than have a human being make?

03:00:38 Yeah, we’ve just done,

03:00:39 we’ve just made a anti influenza molecule

03:00:44 and some antivirals,

03:00:46 six steps on the computer that would take a human being

03:00:49 about one week to make Arbidol of continuous labor.

03:00:54 And all they do now is load up the reagents,

03:00:56 press go button and just go away and drink coffee.

03:00:58 Wow, so this, I mean, and this is, you’re saying

03:01:02 this computer is just the early days.

03:01:04 And so like some of the criticism just have to do

03:01:06 with the early days.

03:01:08 And yes, I would say this,

03:01:09 something like this is quite impossible.

03:01:15 So the fact that you’re doing this is incredible.

03:01:18 Not impossible, of course, but extremely difficult.

03:01:20 It did seem really difficult.

03:01:22 And I do keep pinching myself when I go in the lab.

03:01:25 I was like, is it working?

03:01:25 Like, yep.

03:01:26 And it’s not, you know, it does clog, it does stop.

03:01:30 You got to clean, this is great.

03:01:32 It’s, you know, but it’s getting more reliable

03:01:35 because I made some, we just made design decisions

03:01:38 and said, we are not going to abandon the abstraction.

03:01:40 Think about it.

03:01:41 If the von Neumann implementation was abandoned,

03:01:45 I mean, think about what we do to semiconductors

03:01:47 to really constrain them to what we do to silicon

03:01:51 in a fab lab, we take computation for granted.

03:01:55 Silicon is not in its natural state.

03:01:57 We are doping the hell out of it.

03:01:59 It’s incredible what they’re able to accomplish

03:02:00 and achieve that reliability at the scale they do.

03:02:03 Like you said, that’s after Moore’s law, what we have now.

03:02:07 And where we, you know, how it started, you know,

03:02:13 now we’re here.

03:02:14 We started at the bottom, now we’re here.

03:02:15 We have only have 20 million molecules.

03:02:17 Well, say 20 million molecules in one database,

03:02:19 maybe a few hundred million

03:02:21 in all the pharmaceutical companies.

03:02:23 And those few hundred million molecules are responsible

03:02:26 for all the drugs that we’ve had in humanity,

03:02:28 except, you know, biologics for the last 50 years.

03:02:32 Now imagine what happens when a drug goes out of print,

03:02:35 goes out of print because there’s only a finite number

03:02:37 of manufacturing facilities in the world

03:02:38 that make these drugs.

03:02:39 It goes out of print.

03:02:40 Yeah.

03:02:41 Isn’t that computer?

03:02:42 This is a printing press, but for chemistry.

03:02:44 Yeah.

03:02:45 And not only that, we can protect the KyDL

03:02:47 so we can stop bad actors doing it.

03:02:49 We can encrypt them and we can give people license.

03:02:51 KyDL, that’s the name, sorry to interrupt,

03:02:53 is the name of the programming language?

03:02:54 Yeah, the KyDL is the name of the programming language

03:02:56 and the code we give the chemicals.

03:02:58 So Ky, as in, you know, just for,

03:03:01 it’s actually like an XML format,

03:03:04 but I’ve now taken it from script

03:03:06 to a fully expressible programming language

03:03:10 so we can do dynamics and there’s for loops in there

03:03:12 and conditional statements.

03:03:13 Right, but the structure, it started out as like an XML

03:03:18 type of thing.

03:03:19 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

03:03:20 And also, the chemist doesn’t need to program in KyDL.

03:03:22 They can just go to the software and type in add A to B,

03:03:25 reflux, do what they would normally do,

03:03:27 and it just converts it to KyDL

03:03:28 and they have a linter to check it and error correct.

03:03:30 So how do you, you know, not with ASCII,

03:03:34 but because it’s a Greek letter,

03:03:36 how do you go with, how do you spell it

03:03:39 just using the English alphabet?

03:03:42 We just, XDL?

03:03:43 XDL, but all we use, we put in Ky.

03:03:46 And it was named by one of my students

03:03:47 and one of my postdocs many years ago

03:03:49 and I quite liked it.

03:03:50 It’s like, it’s important, I think,

03:03:53 when the team are contributing to such big ideas,

03:03:55 cause there’s their ideas as well.

03:03:57 I try not to just rename, I didn’t call it Cronon

03:04:00 or anything that, cause they keep saying, you know,

03:04:03 is the chemistry, when they’re putting stuff

03:04:07 in the computer, one of my students said,

03:04:08 we’re asking now, is it Cronon complete?

03:04:10 And I was like, what does that mean?

03:04:11 I said, well, can we make it on the damn machine?

03:04:13 And I was like, oh, is that a compliment or a majority?

03:04:18 But they’re like, well, it might be both.

03:04:21 Yeah, so you tweeted, quote,

03:04:24 why does chemistry need a universal programming language,

03:04:27 question mark?

03:04:29 For all the reasons you can think of.

03:04:31 Reliability, interoperability, collaboration,

03:04:35 remove ambiguity, lower cost, increase safety,

03:04:39 open up discovery, molecular customization,

03:04:42 and publication of executable chemical code.

03:04:46 Which is fascinating, by the way.

03:04:49 Just publish code.

03:04:51 And can you maybe elaborate a little bit more

03:04:56 about this CHI DL, what does the universal language

03:04:59 of chemistry look like?

03:05:01 A Cronon complete language.

03:05:04 It’s a Turing complete language, really.

03:05:07 But, so what it has, it has a series of operators in it,

03:05:11 like add, heat, stir.

03:05:14 So there’s a bunch of unit operations.

03:05:17 And all it is, really, is just,

03:05:19 it’s with chemical engineers,

03:05:21 when I talked about this,

03:05:22 that you’ve just rediscovered chemical engineering.

03:05:26 And I said, well, yeah, I know.

03:05:27 I said, well, that’s trivial.

03:05:30 I said, well, not really.

03:05:31 Well, yes, it is trivial, and that’s why it’s good,

03:05:33 because not only have we rediscovered chemical engineering,

03:05:36 we’ve made it implementable on the universal hardware

03:05:38 that doesn’t cost very much money.

03:05:40 And so the CHI DL has a series of statements.

03:05:43 Like define the reactor.

03:05:46 So defines the reagents.

03:05:49 So they’re all labels, so you assign them.

03:05:52 And what I also implemented at the beginning is,

03:05:55 because I give all the hardware IP address,

03:05:57 you put it on a graph.

03:05:59 And so what it does is like the graph is equivalent

03:06:02 to the processor firmware, the processor code.

03:06:06 So when you take your CHI DL,

03:06:08 and you go to run it on your computer,

03:06:10 you can run it on any compatible hardware

03:06:12 in any configuration, it says, what does your graph look like?

03:06:14 As long as I can solve the problem on the graph

03:06:17 with these unit operations,

03:06:17 and you have the resources available, it can compile.

03:06:20 Chem piles.

03:06:21 Ah ha.

03:06:22 Ha ha ha.

03:06:23 Ha ha ha.

03:06:24 Oh.

03:06:25 All right, we can carry on for years.

03:06:27 But it is really, it’s chempilation.

03:06:29 Chempilation, yeah.

03:06:29 And what it now does is it says, okay,

03:06:32 the problem we have before is it was possible

03:06:35 to do robotics for chemistry,

03:06:37 but the robots were really expensive.

03:06:39 They were unique.

03:06:40 They were vendor locked.

03:06:42 And what I want to do is to make sure

03:06:44 that every chemist in the world can get access

03:06:46 to machinery like this at virtually no cost,

03:06:49 because it makes it safer.

03:06:51 It makes it more reliable.

03:06:53 And then if you go to the literature

03:06:55 and you find a molecule that could potentially cure cancer,

03:06:58 and let’s say the molecule that could potentially

03:06:59 cure cancer takes you three years to repeat,

03:07:03 and maybe a student finishes their PhD in the time

03:07:06 and they never get it back.

03:07:07 So that it’s really hard to kind of get all the way

03:07:12 to that molecule, and it limits the ability

03:07:14 of humanity to build on it.

03:07:16 If they just download the code and can execute it,

03:07:19 it turns, I would say the electronic laboratory notebook

03:07:22 in chemistry is a data cemetery,

03:07:26 because no one will ever reproduce it.

03:07:28 For now, the data cemetery is a Jupiter notebook

03:07:30 and you can just execute it.

03:07:31 A notebook and people can play with it,

03:07:33 the access to it.

03:07:34 Reversion it.

03:07:35 Orders of magnitude is increased.

03:07:37 We’ll talk about the, so as with all technologies,

03:07:41 I think there’s way more exciting possibilities,

03:07:43 but there are also terrifying possibilities,

03:07:45 and we’ll talk about all of them.

03:07:47 But let me just kind of linger on the machine learning

03:07:50 side of this.

03:07:51 So you’re describing programming,

03:07:53 but it’s a language, I don’t know if you’ve heard

03:07:57 about OpenAI Codex, which is.

03:07:59 Yeah, I’m playing with it.

03:08:00 You’re playing, of course you are.

03:08:02 Yeah, you really are Rick from Rick and Morty.

03:08:07 This is great.

03:08:08 Okay, except philosophically deep.

03:08:12 I mean, he is, I guess, kind of philosophically deep too.

03:08:14 So for people who don’t know, GPT, GPT3,

03:08:18 that’s a language model that can do natural language

03:08:21 generation, so you can give it a prompt

03:08:23 and it can complete the rest of it.

03:08:26 But it turns out that that kind of prompt,

03:08:28 it’s not just completes the rest of it,

03:08:30 it’s generating like novel sounding text,

03:08:36 and then you can apply that to generation

03:08:38 of other kinds of stuff.

03:08:40 So these kinds of transformer based language models

03:08:43 are really good at forming deep representations

03:08:49 of a particular space, like a medium, like language.

03:08:54 So you can then apply it to specific subset of language

03:08:56 like programming, so you can have it learn

03:09:00 the representation of the Python programming language

03:09:03 and use it to then generate syntactically

03:09:06 and semantically correct programs.

03:09:10 So you can start to make progress on one of the hardest

03:09:13 problems in computer science, which is program synthesis.

03:09:16 How do you write programs that accomplish different tasks?

03:09:19 So what OpenAI Codex does is it to generate

03:09:24 those programs based on a prompt of some kind.

03:09:28 Usually you can do a natural language prompt,

03:09:30 so basically as you do when you program,

03:09:32 you write some comment which serves the basic documentation

03:09:37 of the inputs and the outputs and the function

03:09:40 of the particular set of code and it’s able

03:09:41 to generate that.

03:09:43 Point being is you can generate programs

03:09:46 using machine learning, using neural networks.

03:09:49 Those programs operate on the boring old computer.

03:09:56 Can you generate programs that operate,

03:09:59 this gotta be a clever version of programs for this,

03:10:01 but can you write programs that operate on a computer?

03:10:06 Yep, there’s actually software out there right now

03:10:08 you can go and do it.

03:10:10 Really?

03:10:11 Yeah, yeah, it’s a heuristic, it’s rule based,

03:10:14 but we have, what we’ve done, inspired by Codex actually,

03:10:20 is over the summer I ran a little workshop.

03:10:23 Some of my groups got this inspired idea

03:10:25 that we should get a load of students

03:10:28 and ask them to manually collect data,

03:10:30 to label chemical procedures into Kydy L.

03:10:35 And we have a cool synth reader.

03:10:38 So there’s a bunch of people doing this right now,

03:10:41 but they’re doing it without abstraction.

03:10:46 And because we have an abstraction

03:10:47 that’s implementable in the hardware,

03:10:50 we’ve developed basically a chemical analog of Codex.

03:10:54 When you say, sorry to interrupt,

03:10:56 when you say abstraction in the hardware, what do you mean?

03:10:59 So right now, a lot of people doing machine learning

03:11:01 and reading chemistry and saying,

03:11:04 oh, you’ve got all these operations,

03:11:05 add, shake, whatever, heat.

03:11:07 But because they don’t have a uniform,

03:11:11 I mean, it’s a couple of groups doing it,

03:11:12 competitors actually, and they’re good, very good.

03:11:15 But they can’t run that code automatically.

03:11:20 They are losing meaning.

03:11:24 And the really important thing that you have to do

03:11:28 is generate context.

03:11:29 And so what we’ve learned to do with our abstraction

03:11:32 is make sure we can pull the context out of the text.

03:11:36 And so can we take a chemical procedure

03:11:40 and read it and generate our executable code?

03:11:42 Yes.

03:11:43 What’s the hardest part about that whole pipeline

03:11:45 from the initial text, interpreting the initial text

03:11:48 of a paper, extracting the meaningful context

03:11:52 and the meaningful chemical information

03:11:54 to then generating the program

03:11:56 to then running that program in the hardware?

03:12:00 What’s the hardest part about that pipeline

03:12:02 as we look towards a universal Turing computer?

03:12:05 So the hardest thing with the pipeline

03:12:10 is that the software, the model gets confused

03:12:16 between some meanings, right?

03:12:18 So if, you know, chemists are very good at inventing words

03:12:21 that aren’t broken down.

03:12:22 So I would, the classic word that you would use

03:12:25 for boiling something is called reflux.

03:12:28 So reflux is, you would have a solvent

03:12:31 in a round bottom flask, at reflux it would be boiling,

03:12:33 going up the reflux condenser and coming down.

03:12:35 But that term reflux to reflux could be changed, you know,

03:12:40 to people often make up words, new words,

03:12:44 and then the software can fall over.

03:12:47 But what we’ve been able to do is a bit like in Python

03:12:50 or any programming language is identify

03:12:53 when things aren’t matched.

03:12:55 So you present the code and you say, this isn’t matched.

03:12:57 You may want to think about this.

03:12:58 And then the user goes and says, oh, I mean reflux

03:13:01 and just ticks a box and collects it.

03:13:02 So what the Codex or the Chemex does in this case

03:13:08 is it just, it suggests the first go

03:13:12 and then the chemist goes in and corrects it.

03:13:14 And I really want the chemist to correct it

03:13:16 because it’s not safe, I believe, for it to allow AI

03:13:21 to just read literature and generate code at this stage.

03:13:25 Because now you’re having actual, by the way, Chemex,

03:13:28 nice, nice name, so you are unlike, which is fascinating.

03:13:38 It’s that we live in a fascinating moment in human history.

03:13:42 But yes, you’re literally connecting AI

03:13:47 to some physical and like it’s building something

03:13:52 in the physical realm, especially in the space

03:13:55 of chemistry that operates sort of invisibly.

03:14:02 Yeah, yeah, I would say that’s right.

03:14:05 And it’s really important to understand

03:14:07 those labeling schemes, right?

03:14:09 And one of the things I was never,

03:14:11 I was always worried about the beginning

03:14:12 that the abstraction was gonna fall over.

03:14:15 And the way we did it was just by brute force to start with.

03:14:18 We just kept reading the literature and saying,

03:14:19 is there anything new?

03:14:20 Can we add a new rule in?

03:14:21 And actually our KyDL language expanded, exploded.

03:14:25 There was so many extra things we had to keep adding.

03:14:28 And then I realized the primitives still were maintained

03:14:31 and I could break them down again.

03:14:32 So it’s pretty good.

03:14:35 I mean, there are problems.

03:14:36 There are problems of interpreting any big sentence

03:14:38 and turning it into an actionable code.

03:14:40 And in Codex, it’s not without its problems.

03:14:42 You can crash it quite easily, right?

03:14:44 You can generate nonsense.

03:14:45 But boy, it’s interesting.

03:14:47 I would love to learn to program now using Codex, right?

03:14:52 Just hacking around, right?

03:14:54 And I wonder if chemists in the future will learn

03:14:55 to do chemistry by just hacking around with the system

03:15:01 and writing different things.

03:15:02 Because the key thing that we’re doing with the chemistry

03:15:04 is that where a lot of mathematical chemistry went wrong

03:15:07 is people, and I think Wolfram does this in Mathematica,

03:15:11 he assumes that chemistry is a reaction where atom A

03:15:15 or molecule A reacts with molecule B

03:15:17 to give molecule C.

03:15:18 That’s not what chemistry is.

03:15:20 Chemistry is take some molecule,

03:15:23 take a liquid or a solid, mix it up and heat it

03:15:27 and then extract it.

03:15:29 So the programming language is actually with respect

03:15:32 to the process operations.

03:15:35 And if you flick in process space,

03:15:37 not in chemical graph space, you unlock everything

03:15:41 because there’s only a finite number of processes

03:15:43 you need to do in chemistry.

03:15:45 And that’s reassuring.

03:15:47 And so we’re in the middle of it, it’s really exciting.

03:15:51 It’s not the be all and the end all.

03:15:53 And there is like I say, errors that can creep in.

03:15:55 One day we might be able to do it without human interaction

03:15:58 and you simulate it.

03:15:59 And you’ll know enough about the simulation

03:16:01 that the lab won’t catch fire.

03:16:05 But there are so many safety issues right now

03:16:07 that we’ve got to really be very careful,

03:16:09 protecting the user, protecting the environment,

03:16:11 protecting misuse.

03:16:13 I mean, there’s lots to discuss

03:16:14 if you want to go down that route

03:16:16 because it’s very, very interesting.

03:16:17 You don’t want Novichoks being made

03:16:20 or explosives being made or recreational drugs being made.

03:16:26 But how do you stop a molecular biologist making a drug

03:16:30 that’s gonna be important for them looking

03:16:32 at their particular assay

03:16:35 on a bad actor trying to make methamphetamine?

03:16:38 I saw how you looked at me when you said bad actor,

03:16:41 but that’s exactly what I’m gonna do.

03:16:42 I’m trying to get the details of this so I can be first.

03:16:45 Don’t worry, we can protect you from yourself.

03:16:47 Okay.

03:16:50 I’m not sure that’s true, but that statement gives me hope.

03:16:54 Does this ultimately excite you about the future

03:17:00 or does it terrify you?

03:17:01 So let’s, we mentioned that time is fundamental.

03:17:07 It seems like you’re at the cutting edge of progress

03:17:12 that will have to happen, that will happen,

03:17:15 that there’s no stopping it.

03:17:18 And I, as we’ve been talking about,

03:17:20 I see obviously a huge number of exciting possibilities.

03:17:24 So whenever you automate these kinds of things,

03:17:29 just the world opens up.

03:17:31 It’s like programming itself and the computer,

03:17:34 regular computer, has created innumerable applications.

03:17:39 It made the world better in so many dimensions.

03:17:43 And it created, of course, a lot of negative things

03:17:45 that we, for some reason, like to focus on

03:17:48 using that very technology to tweet about it.

03:17:52 But I think it made a much better world,

03:17:55 but it created a lot of new dangers.

03:17:57 So maybe you can speak to when you have,

03:18:02 when you kind of stand at the end of the road

03:18:07 for building a really solid, reliable, universal computer.

03:18:14 What are the possibilities that are positive?

03:18:16 What are the possibilities that are negative?

03:18:18 How can we minimize the chance of the negative?

03:18:21 Yeah, that’s a really good question.

03:18:22 So there’s so many positive things,

03:18:23 from drug discovery, from supply chain stress,

03:18:28 for basically enabling chemists

03:18:30 to basically build more productive in the lab, right?

03:18:32 Where this is, the computer’s not gonna replace the chemist.

03:18:35 There’s gonna be a Moore’s law of molecules, right?

03:18:37 There’s gonna be so many more molecules we can design,

03:18:39 so many more diseases we can cure.

03:18:41 So chemists in the lab as researchers,

03:18:43 that’s better for science.

03:18:44 So they can build a bunch of,

03:18:47 like they could do science at a much more accelerated pace.

03:18:50 So it’s not just the development of drugs,

03:18:51 it’s actually like doing the basic understanding

03:18:54 and the science of drugs.

03:18:55 And the personalization, the cost of drugs right now,

03:18:57 we’re all living longer, we’re all having more and more,

03:19:00 we know more about our genomic development,

03:19:02 we know about our predetermination,

03:19:05 and we might be able to,

03:19:06 one dream I’ve got is like,

03:19:07 imagine you can work at your genome assistant

03:19:11 tells you you’re gonna get cancer in seven years time,

03:19:14 and you have your personal computer

03:19:16 that cooks up the right molecule just for you to cure it,

03:19:20 right?

03:19:20 That’s a really positive idea.

03:19:22 The other thing is when drugs,

03:19:25 so right now I think it’s absolutely outrageous

03:19:28 that not all of humanity has access to medicine.

03:19:33 And I think the computer

03:19:34 might be able to change that fundamentally

03:19:36 because it will disrupt the way things are manufactured.

03:19:38 So let’s stop thinking about manufacturing

03:19:40 in different factories.

03:19:41 Let’s say that computers,

03:19:44 clinical grade computers or drug grade computers

03:19:47 will be in facilities all around the world,

03:19:49 and they can make things on demand

03:19:52 as a function of the cost.

03:19:54 Maybe people won’t be able to afford

03:19:55 the latest and greatest patent,

03:19:57 but maybe they’ll be able to get the next best thing

03:20:00 and will basically democratize,

03:20:02 make available drugs to everybody that they need.

03:20:06 And there’s lots of really interesting things there.

03:20:10 So I think that’s gonna happen.

03:20:12 I think that now let’s take the negative.

03:20:16 Before we do that,

03:20:18 let’s imagine what happened,

03:20:19 go back to a really tragic accident a few years ago,

03:20:21 well not accident,

03:20:23 an act of murder by that pilot on the,

03:20:26 I think it was Eurowings or Swisswings.

03:20:28 But what he did is plane took off,

03:20:30 he waited till his pilot went to the toilet,

03:20:33 he was a co pilot,

03:20:34 he locked the door and then set the autopilot

03:20:39 above the Alps,

03:20:40 he set the altimeter or the descend height to zero.

03:20:44 So the computer just took the plane into the Alps.

03:20:48 Now, I mean, that was such a tragedy

03:20:51 that obviously the guy was mentally ill,

03:20:53 but it wasn’t just a tragedy for him,

03:20:55 it was for all the people on board.

03:20:57 But what if, and I was inspired by this

03:20:58 and my thinking, what can I do to anticipate

03:21:03 problems like this in the computer?

03:21:05 Had the software,

03:21:06 and I’m sure Boeing and Airbus will be thinking,

03:21:09 oh, maybe I can give the computer

03:21:11 a bit more situational awareness.

03:21:12 So whenever one tries to drop the height of the plane

03:21:15 and it knows it’s above the Alps,

03:21:16 we’ll just say, oh no, computer says no,

03:21:18 we’re not letting you do that.

03:21:20 Of course, he would have been able to find another way,

03:21:22 maybe fly it until it runs out of fuel or something,

03:21:24 but you know.

03:21:25 Keep anticipating all the large number of trajectories

03:21:28 that can go negative,

03:21:29 all those kinds of running into the Alps

03:21:31 and try to at least make it easy

03:21:35 for the engineers to build systems that are protecting us.

03:21:38 Yeah, and let’s just think,

03:21:40 what in the computer world right now with Kydeals,

03:21:43 let’s just not think about what I’m doing right now.

03:21:45 What I’m doing right now is it’s completely open, right?

03:21:47 Everyone’s gonna know Kydeals and be playing with them,

03:21:48 making them more easier and easier and easier.

03:21:51 But what we’re gonna start to do,

03:21:53 it makes sense to encrypt the Kydeals in such a way,

03:21:59 let’s say you work for a pharmaceutical company

03:22:01 and you have a license to make given molecule,

03:22:03 well, you get issued with a license

03:22:05 by the FDA or your local authority

03:22:07 and they’ll say, right, your license to do it,

03:22:08 here it is, it’s encrypted and the Kydeal gets run.

03:22:12 So you have a license for that instance of use, easy to do.

03:22:15 Computer science has already solved the problem.

03:22:17 So the fact that we all trust online banking, right,

03:22:21 the right now, then we can secure it.

03:22:23 I’m 100% sure we can secure the computer.

03:22:26 And because of the way we have a many,

03:22:28 it’s like the same mapping problem that you,

03:22:32 to actually reverse engineer a Kydeal

03:22:34 will be as hard as reverse engineering the encryption key,

03:22:38 brute force, it will be cheaper

03:22:41 to just actually buy the regulated medicine.

03:22:44 And actually people aren’t gonna want to then

03:22:46 make their own fake pharmaceuticals

03:22:49 because it’ll be so cheap to do it.

03:22:51 We’ll drop the cost of access to drugs.

03:22:53 Now what will happen?

03:22:54 Recreational drugs.

03:22:56 People will start saying,

03:22:57 well, I want access to recreational drugs.

03:22:59 Well, it’s gonna be up to,

03:23:01 it’s gonna accelerate that social discussion

03:23:03 that’s happening in the US and Canada and UK,

03:23:06 everywhere, right?

03:23:07 Because cost goes down, access goes up.

03:23:10 Giving cannabis THC to some people who’ve got epilepsy

03:23:13 isn’t literally, forgive the term, a no brainer

03:23:16 because these poor people go from seizures like every day

03:23:19 to maybe seizures just once every few months.

03:23:22 That’s an interesting idea to try to minimize the chance

03:23:25 that it can get into like the hands of individuals

03:23:29 like terrorists or people that want to do harm.

03:23:32 Now with that kind of thing,

03:23:35 you’re putting a lot of power in the hands of governments,

03:23:39 in the hands of institutions.

03:23:40 And so then emerge the kind of natural criticism

03:23:44 you might have of governments that can sometimes use these

03:23:47 for ill, use them as weapons of war,

03:23:50 not tools of betterment.

03:23:54 So, and sometimes not just war against other nations,

03:23:59 but war against its own people

03:24:01 as it has been done throughout history.

03:24:04 Well, I’m thinking, so there’s another way of doing it,

03:24:06 a decentralized peer to peer version

03:24:09 where, and what you have to do,

03:24:11 I’m not saying you should adopt a blockchain,

03:24:13 but there is a way of maybe taking Kydeals

03:24:14 and put them in blockchain.

03:24:16 Here’s an idea, let’s just say,

03:24:17 the way we’re doing it in my lab right now

03:24:18 is we go to the literature,

03:24:20 we take a recipe to make a molecule,

03:24:23 convert that to Kydeal and diligently make it in the robot

03:24:27 and validate it.

03:24:28 We, that, so we, I would call mining proof of work,

03:24:31 proof of synthesis, right?

03:24:34 Proof of the synthesis.

03:24:35 Yeah, yeah, but this is cool because suddenly

03:24:37 when you actually synthesize it,

03:24:38 you can get the analytical data,

03:24:40 but there’s also a fingerprint in there

03:24:41 of the impurities that get carried across

03:24:43 because you can never make one, something 100% pure.

03:24:46 That fingerprint will allow you to secure your Kydeal.

03:24:49 So what you do is encrypt those two things.

03:24:51 So suddenly you can have people out there mining

03:24:54 and what you could do perhaps is do the type of thing,

03:24:58 we need to basically look at the way that contact tracing

03:25:01 should have been done in COVID

03:25:03 where people are given the information.

03:25:05 So you have just been in contact with someone COVID,

03:25:07 you choose, I’m not telling you to stay at home,

03:25:10 you choose, right?

03:25:12 So now if we could imagine a similar thing,

03:25:14 like, you know, you have got access to these chemicals,

03:25:17 they will have these effects,

03:25:18 you choose and publicize it,

03:25:20 or maybe it’s out somewhere, I don’t know.

03:25:22 I’m not a policymaker on this.

03:25:25 And what my job here is

03:25:26 to not just make the technology possible,

03:25:29 but to have as open as a discussion as possible

03:25:31 with people to say, hey,

03:25:33 can we stop childhood mortality with this technology?

03:25:36 And do those benefits outweigh the one off

03:25:40 where people might use it for terrorism

03:25:42 or people might use it for recreational drugs?

03:25:45 Chemify, which is the name of the entity

03:25:47 that will make this happen,

03:25:48 I think we have some social responsibilities as an entity

03:25:51 to make sure that we’re not enabling people

03:25:53 to manufacture personal drugs, weapons at will.

03:25:56 And what we have to do is have a discussion with society,

03:25:59 with the people that invest in this,

03:26:01 with people that are gonna pay for this,

03:26:03 to say, well, do you wanna live longer?

03:26:05 And do you wanna be healthier?

03:26:07 And are you willing to accept some of the risks?

03:26:09 And I think that’s a discussion to have.

03:26:11 So by the way, when you say personal drugs,

03:26:14 do you mean the illegal ones?

03:26:16 Or do you have a concern of just putting the manufacturer

03:26:19 of any kind of illegal drugs

03:26:22 in the hands of regular people?

03:26:25 Cause they might, like dose matters.

03:26:28 They might take way too much.

03:26:29 I mean, I would say, to be honest,

03:26:31 the chances of computers being,

03:26:34 well, shouldn’t always never.

03:26:35 So the fact I can now say this means

03:26:37 it’s totally gonna come true, right?

03:26:39 And I’m going to do it.

03:26:40 I cannot imagine that computers will be

03:26:43 in people’s houses anytime soon,

03:26:45 but they might be at the local pharmacy, right?

03:26:48 And if you’ve got a drug manufacturing facility

03:26:51 in every town, then you just go

03:26:53 and they give you a prescription.

03:26:54 They do it in such a way, they format it

03:26:56 so that you don’t have to take 10 pills every day.

03:26:59 You get one manufactured for you

03:27:01 that has all the materials you need

03:27:03 and the right distribution.

03:27:04 Got it.

03:27:05 But you mentioned recreational drugs.

03:27:07 And the reason I mention it,

03:27:09 cause I know people are going to speak up on this.

03:27:12 If the drug is legal, there’s to me,

03:27:14 no reason why you can’t manufacture it for recreation.

03:27:18 I mean, you can do it right now.

03:27:19 What do you have against fun, Lee?

03:27:22 I have, so I mean, I’m a chemistry professor

03:27:26 in a university who’s an entrepreneur as well.

03:27:29 I just think I need to be as responsible

03:27:31 as I can in the discussion.

03:27:33 Sure, no, sure, sure.

03:27:35 But I know, so let me be the one that says

03:27:37 like there’s nothing, cause you have said

03:27:40 recreational drugs and like terrorism in the same sentence.

03:27:44 I think let’s make sure we draw a line

03:27:47 that there’s real dangers to the world

03:27:50 of terrorists of bio warfare.

03:27:53 And then there’s a little bit of weed.

03:27:55 So I haven’t, I mean, I think it’s up to the society

03:27:59 to tell his governments what it wants,

03:28:03 what’s acceptable, right?

03:28:04 And if it becomes, let’s say that THCs

03:28:07 become heavily acceptable and that you can modify them.

03:28:12 So let’s say there’s, let’s say it’s like blood type.

03:28:15 There’s a particular type of THC

03:28:17 that you tolerate better than I do.

03:28:20 Then why not have a machine that makes the one you like?

03:28:23 And then, and why not?

03:28:24 It’s the perfect brownie.

03:28:26 Yeah, and I think that that’s fine.

03:28:29 But I’m, we’re so far away from that.

03:28:32 I can barely get the thing to work in the lab, right?

03:28:34 And I mean, it’s reliability and all this other stuff,

03:28:36 but what I think is gonna happen in the short term,

03:28:39 it’s gonna turbocharge molecular discovery reliability

03:28:43 and that will change the world.

03:28:45 That’s super exciting.

03:28:46 You have a draft of a paper titled

03:28:49 Autonomous Intelligent Exploration,

03:28:50 Discovery and Optimization of Nanomaterials.

03:28:53 So we are talking about

03:28:55 automating engineering of nanomaterials.

03:28:58 How hard is this problem?

03:29:01 And as we continue down this thread of the positives

03:29:04 and the worrisome,

03:29:06 what are the things we should be excited about?

03:29:09 And what are the things we should be terrified about?

03:29:12 And how do we minimize the chance

03:29:13 of the terrifying consequences?

03:29:18 So in this robot, the robot does all the heavy lifting.

03:29:21 So the robot basically is an embodied AI.

03:29:24 I really like AI in a domain specific way.

03:29:29 One of the, as you should say at this point,

03:29:31 there was an attempt in the 60s,

03:29:34 Joshua Leidenberg and some really important people

03:29:37 did this that made an AI to try and guess

03:29:40 if organic molecules and the mass spectrometer

03:29:42 were alien or not.

03:29:43 Yes.

03:29:44 And they failed because they didn’t have assembly theory.

03:29:47 I see.

03:29:48 And when I, and I, and that.

03:29:49 Wait, what does assembly theory

03:29:51 give you about alien versus human life?

03:29:53 Well, no, it just, it tells you about unknown,

03:29:55 the degree of unknowns.

03:29:56 You can fingerprint stuff.

03:29:57 They weren’t looking at,

03:29:58 they were trying to basically just look at the corpus

03:30:01 of complex organic molecules.

03:30:04 So when I was a bit down about assembly theory,

03:30:06 cause I couldn’t convince referees

03:30:08 and couldn’t convince computational people

03:30:11 interested in computational complexity,

03:30:14 I was really quite depressed about it.

03:30:16 And I mean, I’ve been working with Sarah Walker’s team

03:30:20 and I think she, you know,

03:30:21 I think she also invented an assembly theory somewhere.

03:30:23 We can talk about it later.

03:30:25 When I found the AI not working for the dendrial project,

03:30:30 I suddenly realized I wasn’t totally insane.

03:30:34 Coming back to this nano robot.

03:30:37 So what it does is it basically, like a computer,

03:30:40 but now what it does is it squirts a liquid

03:30:42 with gold in it in a test tube

03:30:45 and it adds some reducing agents,

03:30:49 so some electrons to make the gold

03:30:51 turn into a nanoparticle.

03:30:53 Now, when gold becomes a nanoparticle,

03:30:54 it gets a characteristic color, a plasmon.

03:30:56 So it’s a bit like if you look at the sheen

03:30:58 on the gold wedding ring or gold bar or something,

03:31:01 those are the ways that conducting electrons

03:31:03 basically reflect light.

03:31:05 What we did is we randomly squirt the gold,

03:31:08 the gold particle and the reducing agent

03:31:10 and then we measure the UV, we measure the color.

03:31:13 And so what we do is we’ve got, the robot has a mind.

03:31:16 So it has a mind where in a simulation,

03:31:20 it randomly generates nanoparticles and the plasmon,

03:31:23 the color that comes out, randomly imagines in its head.

03:31:27 It then with the others,

03:31:28 that’s the imaginary side of the robot.

03:31:29 In the physical side of the robot,

03:31:30 it squirts in the chemicals and looks at the color

03:31:34 and it uses a genetic algorithm

03:31:36 and a map elite actually on it.

03:31:38 And it goes around in cycles and refines

03:31:43 the color to the objective.

03:31:45 Now we use two different points.

03:31:46 We have an exploration and an optimization.

03:31:50 They’re two different.

03:31:51 So the exploration just says, just do random stuff

03:31:54 and see how many different things you can get.

03:31:55 And when you get different things,

03:31:57 try and optimize and make the peak sharper, sharper, sharper.

03:32:00 And what it does after a number of cycles

03:32:03 is it physically takes a sample

03:32:05 of the optimized nanomaterial,

03:32:07 resets all of the round bottom flasks, cleans them

03:32:10 and puts the seed, physical seed back in.

03:32:14 And then what this robot is able to do

03:32:16 is search a space of 10 to the 23 possible reactions

03:32:20 in just a thousand experiments in three days.

03:32:24 And it makes five generations of nanoparticles

03:32:26 which get nicer and nicer in terms of shape

03:32:28 and color and definition.

03:32:30 And then at the end, it outputs a Kydl code.

03:32:33 That could then be.

03:32:34 Wow, it’s doing the search for programs

03:32:38 in the physical space.

03:32:39 So it’s doing a kind of reinforcement learning.

03:32:42 Yeah, yeah, in the physical space.

03:32:44 With the exploration and the optimization.

03:32:46 And that Kydl will work on any computer

03:32:48 or any qualified hardware.

03:32:49 So now that’s it.

03:32:50 That’s now that’s a general piece of code

03:32:53 that can replicate somewhat maybe perfectly

03:32:57 what it created.

03:32:58 That’s amazing.

03:32:59 That’s incredible.

03:33:00 But the nanoparticles themselves are done.

03:33:02 The robot has all the thinking.

03:33:03 So we don’t try and imply any self replication

03:33:06 or try and get the particles to make themselves.

03:33:09 Although it would be cool to try.

03:33:11 So, well, there you go.

03:33:13 That’s, those are famous last words

03:33:14 for the end of human civilization.

03:33:16 Would be cool to try.

03:33:17 So is it possible to create molecules

03:33:21 that start approaching this question

03:33:24 that we started this conversation,

03:33:26 which is the origin of life.

03:33:29 To start to create molecules that have lifelike qualities.

03:33:33 So have the replication, have like complex,

03:33:37 start to create complex organisms.

03:33:40 So we have done this with the oxides.

03:33:42 I talked about earlier with the moxides

03:33:43 and the rings and the bulls.

03:33:45 And the problem is that, well, they do,

03:33:49 they auto catalytically enhance one another.

03:33:52 So they would, I guess you would call it self replication.

03:33:55 But because there’s limited function and mutation,

03:34:01 they’re pretty dumb.

03:34:02 So they don’t do very much.

03:34:04 So I think the prospect of us being able to engineer

03:34:10 a nano material life form in the short term,

03:34:13 like I said earlier,

03:34:14 my aim is to do this, of course.

03:34:16 I mean, on one hand, I’m saying it’s impossible.

03:34:18 On the other hand, I’m saying I’m doing it.

03:34:19 So which is it, Lee?

03:34:20 It’s like, well, I think we can do it,

03:34:23 but only in the robot.

03:34:24 So the causal chain that’s gonna allow it is in the robot.

03:34:27 These particles, if they do start to self replicate,

03:34:30 the system’s gonna be so fragile

03:34:32 that I don’t think anything dangerous will come out.

03:34:35 It doesn’t mean we shouldn’t treat them

03:34:38 as potentially, I mean, I don’t want to scare people

03:34:42 like gain of function.

03:34:43 We’re gonna produce stuff that comes out.

03:34:45 Our number one kill switch is that we always try

03:34:48 to search a space of objects

03:34:52 that don’t exist in the environment.

03:34:55 So even if something got out, it just would die immediately.

03:34:58 It’s like making a silicon life form or something.

03:35:02 Which is the opposite of oftentimes

03:35:04 gain of function research is focused on

03:35:06 how do you get a dangerous thing

03:35:09 to be closer to something that works with humans?

03:35:11 Yeah.

03:35:12 To have it jump to humans.

03:35:13 So that’s the one good mode to operate on

03:35:16 is always try to operate on chemical entities

03:35:22 that are very different than the kind of chemical environment

03:35:25 that humans operate in.

03:35:26 Yeah, and also, I mean, I’ll say something dramatic,

03:35:29 which may not be true.

03:35:33 So I should be careful.

03:35:35 If let’s say we did discover a new living system

03:35:39 but it was made out of a shadow biosphere

03:35:42 and we just released it in the environment,

03:35:44 who cares?

03:35:45 It’s gonna use different stuff.

03:35:48 Yeah, it’ll just live.

03:35:50 Just live, yeah.

03:35:51 I found one of my biggest fantasies

03:35:53 is actually is like a planet

03:35:55 that’s basically half in the sun,

03:35:57 it doesn’t rotate, right?

03:35:59 And you have two different origins of life on that planet

03:36:03 and they don’t share the same chemistry.

03:36:05 Yeah.

03:36:05 And then the only way time they recognize each other

03:36:08 is when they become intelligent, they go,

03:36:09 well, what’s that moving?

03:36:10 Yeah.

03:36:12 So they co evolve and that’s fascinating.

03:36:14 I mean, so one fascinating thing to do

03:36:17 is exactly what you were saying, which is a life bomb,

03:36:20 which is like try to focus on atmospheres

03:36:25 or chemical conditions of other planets

03:36:29 and try within this kind of exploration optimization system

03:36:34 try to discover life forms that can work in those conditions

03:36:40 and then you send those life forms over there

03:36:43 and see what kind of stuff they build up.

03:36:44 Like you can do like a large scale,

03:36:47 it’s kind of a safe physical environment

03:36:50 to do large scale experiments, it’s another planet.

03:36:53 Yeah, so look, I’m gonna say something quite contentious.

03:36:55 I mean, Elon wants to go to Mars,

03:36:57 I think it’s brilliant wants to go to Mars,

03:36:59 but I would counter that and say,

03:37:01 is Elon just obsessed with getting humanity?

03:37:03 Or Earth, or what about just technology?

03:37:06 So if we do technology, so Elon either needs

03:37:09 to take a computer to Mars

03:37:10 because he needs to manufacture drugs on demand,

03:37:12 because zero cost payload and all that stuff is just code.

03:37:16 Or what we do is we actually say, hang on,

03:37:18 it’s quite hard for humans to survive on Mars.

03:37:21 Why don’t we write a series of origin of life algorithms

03:37:24 where we embed our culture in it?

03:37:26 It’s a very Ridley spot Prometheus,

03:37:28 which is a terrible film by the way, but anyway.

03:37:31 And dump it on Mars and just terraform Mars.

03:37:37 And what we do is we evolve life on Mars

03:37:39 that is suited to life on Mars,

03:37:42 rather than brute forcing human life on Mars.

03:37:44 So one of the questions is, what is human culture?

03:37:48 What are the things you encode?

03:37:50 Some of it is knowledge, some of it is information.

03:37:52 But the thing that Elon talks about,

03:37:55 the thing I think about, I think you think about as well

03:37:58 is some of the more unique aspects of what makes us human,

03:38:06 which is our particular kind of consciousness.

03:38:09 So he talks about the flame of human consciousness.

03:38:13 That’s one of the questions is,

03:38:15 can we instill consciousness into other beings?

03:38:22 Because that’s a sad thought that whatever this thing

03:38:26 inside our minds, that hopes and dreams and fears

03:38:30 and loves can all die.

03:38:33 Yeah, but I think you already know

03:38:35 the answer to that question.

03:38:37 I have a robot lawnmower at home.

03:38:40 My kids call it CC, cool car.

03:38:42 It’s a robo mower.

03:38:44 And the way it works, it has an electric field

03:38:47 around the perimeter and it just tell it the area.

03:38:49 And it goes out and goes from its base station,

03:38:52 just mows a bit.

03:38:54 Gets to the perimeter, detects perimeter,

03:38:55 then chooses a random angle, rotates around and goes on.

03:38:58 Yeah.

03:39:00 My kids call it cool cutter.

03:39:02 It’s a she.

03:39:02 I don’t know why it’s a she.

03:39:03 They just, when they were like quite young,

03:39:05 they called it, I don’t want to be sexist there.

03:39:08 It could be a he, but they liked.

03:39:11 They gendered the lawnmower?

03:39:13 They gendered the lawnmower.

03:39:14 Okay.

03:39:14 Yeah, why not?

03:39:15 But I was thinking this lawnmower,

03:39:17 if you apply integrated information theory to lawnmower,

03:39:20 the lawnmower is conscious.

03:39:22 Now, integrated information theory is,

03:39:26 people say it’s a flawed way of measuring consciousness,

03:39:28 but I don’t think it is.

03:39:29 I think assembly theory actually measures consciousness

03:39:32 in the same way.

03:39:33 Consciousness is something that is generated

03:39:35 over a population of objects, of humans.

03:39:38 Consciousness didn’t suddenly spring in.

03:39:40 Our consciousness has evolved together, right?

03:39:43 The fact we’re here and the robots we leave behind,

03:39:45 they will have some of that.

03:39:47 So we won’t lose it all.

03:39:49 Sure, consciousness requires

03:39:50 that we have many models being generated.

03:39:52 It’s not just one domain specific AI, right?

03:39:55 I think the way to create consciousness,

03:39:57 I’m going to say unashamedly,

03:39:58 the best way to make a consciousness is in a chemical system

03:40:02 because you just have access to many more states.

03:40:05 And the problem right now,

03:40:06 we’re making silicon consciousness

03:40:08 because you just don’t have enough states.

03:40:10 So there are more possible states,

03:40:12 or sorry, there are more possible configurations possible

03:40:14 in your brain than there are atoms in the universe.

03:40:17 And you can switch between them.

03:40:20 You can’t do that on a core I10.

03:40:22 It’s got 10 billion, 12 billion, 14 billion transistors,

03:40:25 but you can’t reconfigure them as dynamically.

03:40:28 Well, you’ve shared this intuition a few times already

03:40:31 that the larger number of states

03:40:34 somehow correlates to greater possibility of life,

03:40:38 but it’s also possible the constraints are essential here.

03:40:42 Yeah, yeah.

03:40:43 I mean, but coming back to the,

03:40:45 you worry that something’s lost.

03:40:46 I agree, but I think that we will get to an AGI,

03:40:53 but I wonder if it’s not,

03:40:56 it can’t be separate from human,

03:40:58 it can’t be separate from human consciousness

03:41:00 because the causal chain that produced it came from humans.

03:41:03 So what I kind of try and suggest heavily

03:41:06 to people worry about the existential threat of AI saying,

03:41:11 I mean, you put it much more elegantly earlier,

03:41:13 like we should worry about algorithms on, dumb algorithms

03:41:16 written by human beings on Twitter driving us insane, right?

03:41:21 And doing acting in odd ways.

03:41:23 Yeah, I think intelligence,

03:41:24 this is what I have been in eloquent

03:41:27 in trying to describe it partially

03:41:30 because I try not to think too deeply through this stuff

03:41:34 because then you become a philosopher.

03:41:36 I still aspire to actually building a bunch of stuff.

03:41:40 But my sense is super intelligence leads

03:41:44 to deep integration to human society.

03:41:48 So like intelligence is strongly correlated.

03:41:51 Like intelligence, the way we conceive of intelligence

03:41:56 materializes as a thing that becomes a fun entity

03:42:03 to have at a party and with humans.

03:42:06 So like it’s a mix of wit, intelligence, humor,

03:42:09 like intelligence, like knowledge,

03:42:11 ability to do reasoning and so on,

03:42:14 but also humor, emotional intelligence,

03:42:17 ability to love, to dream, to share those dreams,

03:42:23 to play the game of human civilization,

03:42:28 the push and pull, the whole dance of it,

03:42:30 the whole dance of life.

03:42:31 And I think that kind of super intelligent being

03:42:35 is not the thing that worries me.

03:42:38 I think that ultimately will enrich life.

03:42:41 It’s again, the dumb algorithms,

03:42:43 the dumb algorithms that scale in the hands of people

03:42:46 that are too, don’t study history,

03:42:48 that don’t study human psychology and human nature,

03:42:51 just applying too broadly for selfish near term interests.

03:42:57 That’s the biggest danger.

03:42:58 Yeah, I think it’s not a new danger, right?

03:43:01 I now know how I should use Twitter

03:43:04 and how I shouldn’t use Twitter, right?

03:43:07 I like to provoke people into thinking.

03:43:09 I don’t want to provoke people into outrage.

03:43:11 It’s not fun.

03:43:12 It’s not a good thing for humans to do, right?

03:43:14 And I think that when you get people into outrage,

03:43:16 they take sides and taking sides is really bad.

03:43:20 But I think that we’re all beginning to see this.

03:43:22 And I think that actually I’m very optimistic

03:43:24 about how things will evolve because, you know,

03:43:28 I wonder how much productivity has Twitter

03:43:32 and social media taken out of humanity?

03:43:33 Because how many now, I mean,

03:43:36 so the good thing about Twitter is it gives power,

03:43:38 so it gives voice to minorities, right?

03:43:41 And that’s good to some degree.

03:43:44 But I wonder how much voice does it give

03:43:47 to all sorts of other problems

03:43:52 that don’t need this emerge?

03:43:54 By the way, when you say minorities,

03:43:55 I think, or at least if I were to agree with you,

03:44:00 what I would say is minorities broadly defined

03:44:02 in these small groups of people that it magnifies

03:44:09 the concerns of the small versus the big.

03:44:12 That is good to some degree.

03:44:15 But I think, I mean, I have to be careful

03:44:17 because I think I have a very,

03:44:20 I mean, I think that the world isn’t that broken, right?

03:44:23 I think the world is pretty cool place.

03:44:25 I think academia is really great.

03:44:26 I think climate change presents

03:44:29 a really interesting problem for humanity

03:44:32 that we will solve.

03:44:33 I like how you said it.

03:44:34 It’s a pretty cool problem for civilization.

03:44:37 It’s a big one.

03:44:38 Well, it’s a bunch of it.

03:44:39 There’s a bunch of really, really big problems

03:44:42 that if solved can significantly improve

03:44:45 the quality of life or learn.

03:44:47 That ultimately is what we’re trying to do,

03:44:49 improve how awesome life is

03:44:51 for the maximum number of people.

03:44:53 Yeah, and I think that the coming back to consciousness,

03:44:56 I don’t think the universe is doomed to heat death, right?

03:45:00 It’s one of the optimists.

03:45:01 That’s why I want to kind of nudge you

03:45:03 into thinking that time is fundamental

03:45:04 because if time is fundamental,

03:45:05 then suddenly you don’t have to give it back.

03:45:09 The universe just constructs stuff.

03:45:11 And what we see around us in our construction,

03:45:13 I know everyone’s worried about how fragile civilization is.

03:45:16 And I mean, look at the fundamentals.

03:45:17 We’re good until the sun expands, right?

03:45:22 We’ve got quite a lot of resource on earth.

03:45:23 We’re trying to be quite cooperative.

03:45:25 Humans are nice to each other

03:45:27 when they’re not under enormous stress.

03:45:31 But coming back to the consciousness thing,

03:45:33 are we going to send human beings to Mars

03:45:36 or conscious robots to Mars?

03:45:38 Or are we gonna send some hybrid?

03:45:40 And I don’t know the answer to that question right now.

03:45:43 I guess, you know,

03:45:44 Elon is gonna have a pretty good go at getting there.

03:45:46 I’m not sure whether,

03:45:49 I have my doubts, but I’m not qualified.

03:45:52 I’m sure people have their doubts that computation works,

03:45:56 but I’ve got it working.

03:45:58 And I, you know.

03:45:59 And most of the cool technologies we have today

03:46:03 and take for granted,

03:46:05 like the airplane, a aforementioned airplane,

03:46:08 were things that people doubted.

03:46:11 Like majority of people doubted

03:46:13 before they came to life and they come to life.

03:46:16 And speaking of hybrid AI and humans,

03:46:19 it’s fascinating to think about all the different ways

03:46:21 that hybridization, that merger can happen.

03:46:25 I mean, we have, currently have the smartphone,

03:46:27 so there’s already a hybrid,

03:46:28 but there’s all kinds of ways that hybrid happens.

03:46:31 How we and other technology play together,

03:46:34 like a computer, how that changes

03:46:37 the fabric of human civilization is like wide open.

03:46:40 Who knows?

03:46:41 Who knows?

03:46:42 If you remove,

03:46:46 if you remove cancer,

03:46:47 if you remove major diseases from humanity,

03:46:53 there’s going to be a bunch of consequences

03:46:55 we’re not anticipating.

03:46:57 Many of them positive, but many of them negative.

03:47:01 Many of them, most of them, at least I hope,

03:47:04 are weird and wonderful and fun

03:47:06 in ways that are totally unexpected.

03:47:08 And we sitting on a porch with a bottle of Jack Daniels

03:47:11 and a rocker will say,

03:47:13 kids these days don’t appreciate

03:47:15 how hard we had it back in the day.

03:47:17 I gotta ask you, speaking of nudging,

03:47:21 you and Joscha Bach nudge each other on Twitter quite a bit

03:47:25 in wonderful intellectual debates.

03:47:29 And of course, for people who don’t know Joscha Bach,

03:47:31 he’s this brilliant guy.

03:47:32 He’s been on the podcast a couple times.

03:47:35 You tweeted, or he tweeted,

03:47:38 Joscha Bach, everyone should follow him as well.

03:47:41 You should definitely follow Mr. Lee Cronin, Dr. Lee Cronin.

03:47:44 He tweeted, dinner with Lee Cronin.

03:47:48 We discussed that while we can translate

03:47:50 every working model of existence into a Turing machine,

03:47:54 the structure of the universe might be given

03:47:56 by weeks of nonexistence in a pattern generated

03:47:59 by all possible automata, which exist by default.

03:48:05 And then he followed on saying face to face is the best.

03:48:09 So the dinner was face to face.

03:48:12 What is Joscha talking about in weeks, quote,

03:48:16 weeks of nonexistence in a pattern generated

03:48:19 by all possible automata, which exist by default.

03:48:25 So automata exist by default, apparently.

03:48:29 And then there’s weeks of nonexistence.

03:48:31 What the hell is nonexistence in the universe?

03:48:34 That’s, and also in another conversation,

03:48:39 you tweeted it’s state machines all the way down,

03:48:44 which presumably is the origin story of this discussion.

03:48:47 And then Joscha said, again, nudging, nudging,

03:48:53 nudging slash trolling, Joscha said,

03:48:56 you’ve seen the light, welcome friend.

03:48:59 Many foundational physicists effectively believe

03:49:01 in some form of hyper computation.

03:49:04 Lee is coming around to this idea.

03:49:07 And then you said, I think there are notable differences.

03:49:10 First, I think the universe does not have to be a computer.

03:49:13 Second, I want to understand how the universe emerges,

03:49:16 constructors that build computers.

03:49:18 And third is that there is something below church touring.

03:49:24 Okay, what the heck is this dinner conversation about?

03:49:30 Maybe put another way, maybe zooming out a little bit.

03:49:34 Are there interesting agreements or disagreements

03:49:37 between you and Joscha Bach that can elucidate

03:49:41 some of the other topics we’ve been talking about?

03:49:44 Yeah, so Jascha has an incredible mind

03:49:46 and he has, he’s so well read

03:49:49 and uses language really elegantly.

03:49:53 It bamboozles me at times.

03:49:54 So I’m, so often I’m using, I’m describing concepts

03:49:59 in a way that I built from the ground up.

03:50:03 And so we misunderstand each other a lot.

03:50:05 And he’s floating in the clouds, is that what you’re saying?

03:50:08 Something like, not quite, but I think,

03:50:09 so this concept of a Turing machine.

03:50:11 So a Turing machine, Turing machines, I would argue,

03:50:15 and I think this is not, the Turing machine,

03:50:18 the universe is not a Turing machine.

03:50:21 Biology is not even a Turing machine, right?

03:50:23 And because Turing machines don’t evolve, right?

03:50:25 There is this problem

03:50:27 that people see Turing machines everywhere,

03:50:28 but isn’t it interesting the universe gave rise to biology

03:50:31 that gave rise to intelligence,

03:50:32 that gave rise to Alan Turing,

03:50:34 who invented the abstraction of the Turing machine

03:50:37 and allowed us to digitize.

03:50:39 And so I’ve been looking for the mystery

03:50:43 at the origin of life, the origin of intelligence

03:50:45 and the origin of this.

03:50:46 And I, when I discussed with Yasha,

03:50:48 I think Yasha, he was saying, well, the universe,

03:50:51 of course the universe is a Turing machine.

03:50:53 Of course there’s a hyper computer there.

03:50:56 And I think we got kind of trapped in our words and terms

03:50:59 because of course it’s possible for a Turing machine

03:51:02 or computers to exist in the universe.

03:51:04 We have them.

03:51:05 But what I’m trying to understand is

03:51:07 where did the transition of continuous discrete occur?

03:51:11 And I’ve been, and this is because of my general foolishness

03:51:14 of understanding the continuous.

03:51:19 But I guess what I’m trying to say is

03:51:23 there were constructors before there were abstractors

03:51:26 because how did the universe abstract itself into existence?

03:51:31 And it goes back to earlier saying,

03:51:32 could the universe of intelligence have come first?

03:51:35 What’s a constructor, what’s an abstractor?

03:51:37 So the abstractor is the ability of say,

03:51:40 of Alan Turing and Gödel and Church

03:51:45 to think about the mathematical universe and to label things.

03:51:50 And then from those labels to come up with a set of axioms

03:51:54 with those labels and to basically understand

03:51:57 the universe mathematically and say, okay,

03:51:59 I can label things.

03:52:01 Where did the labeler come from?

03:52:03 Where is the prime labeler?

03:52:04 Even if the universe is not a Turing computer,

03:52:12 does that negate the possibility

03:52:14 that a Turing computer can simulate the universe?

03:52:16 Just because the abstraction was formed at a later time,

03:52:20 does that mean that abstraction,

03:52:22 this is to our cellular automata conversation.

03:52:25 You were taking away some of the magic

03:52:26 from the cellular automata because very intelligent

03:52:29 biological systems came up with that cellular automata.

03:52:32 Well, this is where the existence is the default, right?

03:52:34 Is it, does the fact that we exist

03:52:36 and we can come up with a Turing machine,

03:52:38 does that mean the universe has to be

03:52:40 a Turing machine as well?

03:52:41 But can it be a Turing machine though?

03:52:44 That’s a, so the has to be and the can it be.

03:52:46 Can it be?

03:52:47 Sure.

03:52:50 I don’t know, I don’t understand

03:52:52 if it has to be or not, can it be?

03:52:54 But can the universe have Turing machines in it?

03:52:57 Sure, they exist now.

03:53:01 I’m wondering though, maybe,

03:53:04 and this is where things get really hairy,

03:53:07 is I think the universe maybe in the past

03:53:09 did not have the computational power that it has now.

03:53:17 This is almost like a law of physics kind of,

03:53:21 so the computational power is not,

03:53:24 you can get some free lunch.

03:53:28 Yeah, I mean, the fact that we now,

03:53:30 we sit here in this period in time

03:53:32 and we can imagine all these robots

03:53:33 and all these machines and we built them.

03:53:36 And so we can easily imagine going back in time

03:53:38 that the universe was capable of having them,

03:53:39 but I don’t think it can.

03:53:41 So the universe may have been a lot dumber computationally.

03:53:45 And I think that’s why,

03:53:46 I don’t want to go back to the time discussion,

03:53:48 but I think it has some relationship with it.

03:53:50 The universe is basically smarter now than it used to be

03:53:53 and it’s going to continue getting smarter over time

03:53:57 because of novelty, generation,

03:53:59 and the ability to create objects

03:54:00 within objects within objects.

03:54:02 You know, there’s a, perhaps it’s grounded in physics,

03:54:05 there’s this intuition of conservation.

03:54:07 Yeah. That stuff is conserved.

03:54:09 Like you’re not, you’ve always had all,

03:54:12 everything, you’re just rearranging books

03:54:15 on the bookshelf through time.

03:54:18 So, okay. But you’re saying like

03:54:19 new books are being written.

03:54:21 Which laws do you want to break?

03:54:22 At the origin of the big bang,

03:54:25 you had to break the second law

03:54:27 because we got order for free.

03:54:28 Yeah.

03:54:29 Well, what I’m telling you now

03:54:30 is that the energy isn’t conserved in the universe.

03:54:33 Oh, it’s the second law. Okay. I got you.

03:54:35 So because, but not in a mad way.

03:54:38 Okay. So computation potentially is not conserved,

03:54:44 which is a fascinating idea.

03:54:46 Intelligence is not conserved.

03:54:49 Complexity is not conserved.

03:54:54 I suppose that’s deeply connected

03:54:57 to time being fundamental.

03:55:01 The natural consequence of that

03:55:03 is if time is fundamental

03:55:05 and the universe is inflating in time, if you like,

03:55:09 then there are one or two conservation laws

03:55:11 that we need to have a look at.

03:55:14 And I wonder if that means the total energy

03:55:16 of the universe is actually increasing over time.

03:55:18 And this may be completely ludicrous,

03:55:21 but we do have all this dark energy.

03:55:25 We have some anomalies, let’s say,

03:55:28 dark matter and dark energy.

03:55:29 If we don’t add them in,

03:55:30 galaxies, so dark matter, I think doesn’t hold.

03:55:35 You need to hold the galaxies together

03:55:36 and there’s some other observational issues.

03:55:38 Could dark energy just be time?

03:55:42 So figuring out what dark energy is

03:55:44 might give us some deep clues

03:55:47 about this, not just time, but the consequences of time.

03:55:53 So it could be that, I mean,

03:55:55 I’m not saying there’s perpetual motions allowed

03:55:57 and it’s free lunch, but I’m saying

03:55:59 if the universe is intrinsically asymmetric

03:56:02 and it appears to be, and it’s generating novelty

03:56:07 and it appears to, couldn’t that just be mechanistically

03:56:11 how reality works?

03:56:13 And therefore I don’t really like this idea that the,

03:56:18 so I want to live in a deterministic universe

03:56:21 that is undetermined, right?

03:56:25 The only way I can do that is if time is fundamental.

03:56:28 Because otherwise it’s all the rest of us,

03:56:30 it’s just sleight of hand because the physicists will say,

03:56:33 yes, everything’s deterministic.

03:56:35 Newtonian mechanics is deterministic.

03:56:38 Quantum mechanics is deterministic.

03:56:40 Let’s take the Everettian view.

03:56:42 And then basically we can just draw out

03:56:44 this massive universe branching, but it closes again

03:56:46 and we get it all back.

03:56:48 And don’t worry, your feeling of free will is effective.

03:56:51 But what the physicists are actually saying

03:56:53 is the entire future is mapped out.

03:56:55 And that is clearly problematical.

03:57:00 And clearly.

03:57:03 That’s not so clear.

03:57:05 Yeah.

03:57:05 It’s just problematic.

03:57:07 Well, yeah, yeah, so it’s.

03:57:10 Because that maybe is just the way it is.

03:57:12 It’s problematic to you, a particular creature

03:57:14 along this timeline.

03:57:15 I want to reduce the number of beliefs

03:57:16 I need to understand the universe.

03:57:18 So if time is fundamental, I don’t need

03:57:21 to have magic order at the beginning,

03:57:24 and I don’t need a second law.

03:57:25 But you do need the magical belief

03:57:27 that time is fundamental.

03:57:28 Well, I need the observation that I’m seeing

03:57:32 to be just how it is all the way down.

03:57:34 But the Earth also looks flat

03:57:37 if you agree with your observation.

03:57:40 So we can’t necessarily trust our observation.

03:57:43 I know the Earth isn’t flat

03:57:44 because I can send a satellite into space.

03:57:46 No, but now you see, now you’re using the tools

03:57:49 of science and the technology of science.

03:57:51 But I’m saying I’m going to do experiments

03:57:53 that start to show.

03:57:55 I mean, I think that it’s worth.

03:57:57 So if you can’t, so if I cannot do an experiment

03:58:01 or a thought experiment that will test this assumption,

03:58:04 then the assumption is without merit really in the end.

03:58:07 You know, that’s fine.

03:58:09 Yeah.

03:58:10 That’s a beautiful ideal you hold yourself to.

03:58:12 That’s given that you think deeply in a philosophical way,

03:58:18 you think about some of these really important issues

03:58:21 and you have theoretical frameworks like assembly theory.

03:58:27 It’s really nice that you’re always grounded

03:58:29 with experiment.

03:58:31 That’s all I have.

03:58:32 That’s so refreshing.

03:58:33 That’s so beautifully refreshing.

03:58:35 Now that we’re holding you to the grounded

03:58:39 in an experiment to the harsh truth of reality,

03:58:42 let me ask the big ridiculous question.

03:58:45 What is the meaning of this whole thing?

03:58:47 What’s the meaning of life?

03:58:48 Why?

03:58:49 This time is fundamental.

03:58:52 It’s marching forward.

03:58:54 And along this long timeline come along a bunch

03:58:58 of descendants of apes that have come up

03:59:03 with cellular automata and computers and now computers.

03:59:07 Why?

03:59:09 I have so many different answers to this question.

03:59:11 It depends on what day.

03:59:13 I would say that given the way of the conversation

03:59:16 we had today, I’d say the meaning,

03:59:18 well, we make our own meaning.

03:59:19 I think that’s fine.

03:59:20 But I think the universe wants to explore

03:59:24 every possible configuration that it’s allowed us

03:59:27 to explore.

03:59:28 And this goes back to the kind of question

03:59:30 that you were asking about Yasha and the existence

03:59:33 and non existence of things, right?

03:59:35 So if the universe is a Turing machine is churning

03:59:37 through a lot of states and you think about

03:59:41 combinatorial theory before assembly theory,

03:59:43 so everything is possible.

03:59:45 What Yasha and I were saying is, well,

03:59:48 not everything is possible.

03:59:49 We don’t see the combinatorial explosion.

03:59:52 We see something else.

03:59:53 And what we see is evidence of memory.

03:59:57 So there clearly seems to be some interference

04:00:00 between the combinatorial explosion of things

04:00:04 and what the universe allows.

04:00:06 And it’s like this kind of constructive,

04:00:08 destructive interference.

04:00:10 So maybe the universe is not just about,

04:00:14 it is assembling objects in space and time.

04:00:18 And those objects are able to search more space and time.

04:00:22 And the universe is just infinitely creative.

04:00:24 And I guess I’m searching for why the universe

04:00:27 is infinitely creative.

04:00:28 It is infinitely creative.

04:00:29 And maybe the meaning is just simply to make

04:00:31 as many objects, create as many things as possible.

04:00:34 And I see a future of the universe that doesn’t result

04:00:37 in the heat death of the universe.

04:00:38 The universe is gonna extract every ounce

04:00:41 of creativity it can out of it,

04:00:43 because that’s what we see on Earth, right?

04:00:45 And if you think that almost like intelligence

04:00:49 is not conserved, that maybe creativity isn’t either.

04:00:52 Maybe like it’s an infinite well.

04:00:56 So like creativity is ultimately tied to novelty.

04:01:00 You’re coming up with cool new configurations of things,

04:01:03 and maybe that just can continue indefinitely.

04:01:06 And this human species that was created along the way

04:01:09 is probably just one method,

04:01:13 like that’s able to ask the universe about itself.

04:01:16 It’s just one way to explore creativity.

04:01:19 Maybe there’s other meta levels on top of that.

04:01:22 Like obviously, as a collective intelligence

04:01:24 will create organisms, maybe there’ll be organisms

04:01:27 that ask themselves questions about themselves

04:01:33 in a deeper, bigger picture way than we humans do.

04:01:38 First to ask questions about the humans,

04:01:39 and then construct some kind of hybrid systems

04:01:42 that ask themselves about the collective aspect.

04:01:45 Just like some weird stacking

04:01:47 that we can’t even imagine yet.

04:01:49 And that stacking, I mean, I have discussed this stacking

04:01:51 a lot with Sarah Walker, who’s a professor of physics

04:01:54 and astrobiology at ASU.

04:01:57 And we argue about how creative the universe is gonna be,

04:02:02 and is it as deterministic as all that?

04:02:03 Because I think she’s more of a free will thinker,

04:02:07 and I’m of a less free will thinker,

04:02:10 but I think we’re beginning to converge

04:02:12 and understanding that.

04:02:13 Because there’s simply a missing understanding.

04:02:15 Right now, we don’t understand how the universe,

04:02:19 we don’t know what rules the universe has

04:02:21 to allow the universe to contemplate itself.

04:02:23 So asking the meaning of it

04:02:25 before we even know what those rules are

04:02:27 is premature, but my guess is that it’s not meaningless,

04:02:30 and it isn’t just about that.

04:02:32 And there are three levels of meanings.

04:02:33 Obviously, the universe wants us to do stuff.

04:02:35 We’re interacting with each other,

04:02:36 so we create meaning in our own society

04:02:38 and our own interactions with humanity.

04:02:41 But I do think there is something else going on.

04:02:44 But because reality is so weird,

04:02:47 we’re just scratching at that.

04:02:49 And I think that we have to make the experiments better.

04:02:52 And we have to perhaps join across,

04:02:56 not just for the computation lists.

04:02:58 And what I tried to do with Yashua is meet him halfway,

04:03:01 say, well, what happens if I become a computation list?

04:03:03 What do I gain?

04:03:04 A lot, it turns out,

04:03:05 because I can make Turing machines in the universe.

04:03:08 Because on the one hand, I’m making computers

04:03:09 which are state machines inspired by Turing.

04:03:12 On the other hand, I’m saying they can’t exist.

04:03:14 Well, clearly, I can’t have my cake and eat it,

04:03:16 so there’s something weird going on there.

04:03:18 So then, did the universe have to make a continuous

04:03:21 to a discrete transition, or is the universe just discrete?

04:03:23 It’s probably just discrete.

04:03:25 So if it’s just discrete, then there are,

04:03:27 I will then give Yashua his Turing like property

04:03:31 in the universe.

04:03:32 But maybe there’s something else below it,

04:03:33 which is the constructor that constructs a Turing machine

04:03:36 that then constructs, you know,

04:03:38 it’s a bit like you generate a computing system

04:03:42 that then is able to build an abstraction

04:03:44 that then recognizes it can make a generalizable abstraction

04:03:48 because human beings with mathematics

04:03:50 have been able to go on and build physical computers.

04:03:55 If that makes any sense.

04:03:57 And I think that’s the meaning.

04:03:58 I think that’s, you know, as far as we can,

04:04:00 the meaning will be further elucidated

04:04:02 with further experiments.

04:04:06 Well, you mentioned Sarah.

04:04:08 I think you and Sarah Walker

04:04:11 are just these fascinating human beings.

04:04:14 I’m really fortunate to have the opportunity

04:04:18 to be in your presence, to study your work,

04:04:20 to follow along with your work.

04:04:21 I’m a big fan.

04:04:23 Like I told you offline,

04:04:25 I hope we get a chance to talk again

04:04:27 with perhaps just the two of us,

04:04:29 but also with Sarah.

04:04:30 That’s a fascinating dynamic for people who haven’t heard.

04:04:35 I suppose on Clubhouse is where I heard you guys talk,

04:04:38 but you have an incredible dynamic.

04:04:39 And I also can’t wait to hear you and Yashua talk.

04:04:43 So I think if there’s some point in this predetermined

04:04:48 or yet to be determined future where the three of us,

04:04:54 you and Sarah, or the four of us with Yashua

04:04:56 could meet and talk would be a beautiful future.

04:04:59 And I look forward to most futures,

04:05:02 but I look forward to that one in particular.

04:05:04 Lee, thank you so much

04:05:06 for spending your valuable time with me today.

04:05:08 Thanks, Lex.

04:05:09 It’s been a pleasure.

04:05:10 Thanks for listening to this conversation with Lee Cronin.

04:05:13 To support this podcast,

04:05:15 please check out our sponsors in the description.

04:05:18 And now let me leave you with some words

04:05:20 from the math scientist, Rick Sanchez

04:05:22 of Rick and Morty fame.

04:05:25 To live is to risk it all.

04:05:28 Otherwise you’re just an inert chunk

04:05:31 of randomly assembled molecules

04:05:34 drifting wherever the universe blows you.

04:05:36 Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.